Hayworth will win for this simple reason:
This is a Tea Party revolt year, and Arizona's Republicans and Tea Partiers have had enough of McCain's support of this administration's bailouts and big-government policies.
The country is in the midst of a Tea Party revolt movement that began last spring and has not lost steam. The revolt began over the federal bailouts – and McCain, labeled "Obama-lite" as a result – voted for several of them.
He voted for the $700 billion general TARP bailout, the $25 billion auto bailout, the first $85 billion AIG insurance bailout, and he proposed spending $300 billion on a mortgage entitlement bailout to buy out every bad mortgage in the country.
The current anti-big government, anti-spending uproar has already begun voting in new leadership promising smaller government.
Governor Bob McDonnell's win in Virginia, Senator Scott Brown's win in Massachusetts, the defeat of liberal Republican Dede Scozzafava in New York, and the forced resignation of the Florida Republican State Party Chairman over his support for liberal Republican Governor Charlie Crist all evidence a backlash against big government politicians – including liberal Republicans.
A new poll shows Tea Party Texas gubernatorial candidate Debra Medina trailing the more liberal Republican Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson by only four points. The Tea Party revolts that began last spring have not lost momentum as the federal government continues the bailouts and embarks on a massive takeover of the healthcare industry.