Edit: Removed the picture because of it's large size. Click the link to see it.Global TC Activity remains at 30-year lows at least -- The last 24-months of ACE at 1090 represents a decrease from the previous months and a return to the levels of September 2009...Since Hurricane Katrina (August 2005) and the publication of high-profile papers in Nature and Science, global tropical cyclone ACE has collapsed in half. This continues the now 4-consecutive years global crash in tropical cyclone activity. While the Atlantic on average makes up about 10% of the global, yearly hurricane activity, the other 90% deserves attention and has been significantly depressed since 2007. See Figure below.
Northern Hemisphere year-to-date ACE is nearing 50% below normal. The Western North Pacific is at 17% of normal (or the past 30-year average).
We'd have to have record months of August and September to match the official forecasts for the Hurricane Season. I don't know what the agencies have been using to make their forecasts, but they need to start doing some basic VIV (Verify, Initialize, Verify) process, cause it's not working. 4 years running now they've drastically overforcasted the season. I can understand erring on the side of caution, that is how we should be doing our job. But this goes beyond that.