If you go to their Senate: No Toss Ups page, the toss ups break 2:1 for Republicans, which gives us a 49 seat caucus after the election. The four that break Republican are Illinois, Nevada, Colorado and Pennsylvania. The two that look like they could break Democratic are West Virginia and Washington, and while I'd like to see the Dems lose there, I could probably live with Manchin in the senate, as he's far to the right of most Democrats (and a number of Republicans) and wouldn't be an embarrassment to either party. And, if Obama continues to alienate people, he's a good probability to cross the aisle.
Nevada will definitely go Republican, but I doubt IL and CO will too. You're asking a lot of states which are very deeply entrenched.
Its hard to see WI flipping too, but that race is closer than anybody anticipated.
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