#1 " Nowhere are Democrats More Clearly Threatened with Heavy Defeat Than in The South.
10-27-2010, 09:36 PM
- Join Date
- Aug 2005
In their latest look at House races around the country, The Hill sees the South slipping away from Democrats in a big way.
Veterans like John Spratt in South Carolina, Allen Boyd in Florida, and Jim Marshall in Georgia face almost certain defeat, according to the new polling.
With the big dogs dropping, the freshmen donít have much of a chance, either:
Democrats hold 59 Southern House seats and could lose a dozen of them ó helping Republicans toward the net gain of 39 they need for control of the House. Ö
Reps. John Spratt (D-S.C.), Allen Boyd (D-Fla.), Chet Edwards (D-Texas) and Jim Marshall (D-Ga.) ó with 70 years of congressional service between them ó trail by double digits, according to The Hillís poll. Spratt is down by 10 points; Boyd trails by 12, as does Edwards and Marshall is behind by 13.
Throughout the four weeks of The Hillís polling, the Southern tsunami has been building, and it hasnít been confined to long-term incumbents, even though incumbency is a negative among likely voters.
The polling, released this morning by The Hill, looks devastating in the aggregate. Although Republicans only win a 46/42 advantage on the generic ballot in these races, they also have a much higher favorability rating, too.
Democrats get a +1, 46/45, with a -3 among independents, 43/46. Republicans have a +16, 48/32, with a +14 among independents, 47/33.
In Texasís 17th CD, where Chet Edwards faces defeat by 13 points, the GOP has a 56/31 favorability rating.
One by-now familiar piece of baggage: Barack Obama. The man who once claimed to Democrats that the difference between 1994 and 2010 is ďyouíve got meĒ was right in one respect; heís definitely having an impact on the midterms, just not the one he presumed.
Obamaís approval rating in the aggregate among these districts is 41/56, and a stunning 37/61 among independent voters. Even among women, Obama has only a 45/53 rating.
* FL-02: Incumbent Allen Boyd has a 34/54 favorability rating, 28/60 among independents. His opponent, Steve Southerland, has already hit 50% to Boydís 38%, and based on his numbers, Boyd isnít going much higher than that.
* CO-03: John Salazar is in big trouble here, down four to Scott Tipton, 43/47. Heís hit nearly the peak of his favorability in western Colorado (46/48), where fellow Democrat John Hickenlooper described voters as ďbackwards thinking.Ē Heís the brother of Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, whose boss gets a 43/55 job approval rating from likely voters.
* GA-08: Jim Marshall actually has a slightly favorable rating at 45/40, but heís trailing Austin Scott anyway, 37/50, and by 22 points among independents, 30/52. Heís losing both men and women by double digits.
* IN-09: Baron Hill has a 2-point lead in this race but hasnít hit the 50% mark yet, 46/44. Independents are breaking hard for Todd Young, 49/32, and Young leads among men, 48/43. The sample here was D+3 in a district with a Cook rating of R+6, though, so Hill is probably doing much worse than this, especially with Obamaís 45/53 approval rating.
* ND at large: Surprisingly, this poll shows Earl Pomeroy leading by a point with an R+10 sample. Almost everyone else has Pomeroy trailing badly. Weíll see in a week, but Iíd call this one an outlier.
* PA-11: Lou Barletta leads Democratic incumbent Paul Kanjorski by five, 48/43 despite a D+25 advantage in the sample. (Cook has this as a D+4 district.)
* SC-05: John Spratt once claimed that a party that couldnít produce a budget had no right to govern. His constituents are taking his advice. The powerful chair of the Budget Committee is down ten to Mick Mulvaney, 39/49, and down 23 points among indepedents, 31/54. Obamaís 44/55 approval rating isnít helping
* SD at large: Incumbent Stephanie Herseth Sandlin leads by three but only gets 45% of the vote. Kristi Noem is within range of unseating the heretofore popular Herseth Sandlin, whose favorability (56/38) reflects the degree of difficulty Noem will have. Obamaís 37/59 approval rating should help.
* TX-17: Edwards is down 13 points in a district that already tilts Republican anyway. Obama has a 32/66 approval rating here. This one is so obvious that even the Democrats stopped spending money here.
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