nadinbrzezinski (1000+ posts) Sun Dec-12-10 04:36 PM
Another trend I missed, but to be added
well over the last week I have been told repeatedly that my trend spotting (technical term) is an actual support of a revolution. For the record it is not.
Let's make this clear.
But if this projection of personal fears (of a revolution) or desires (of a revolution) onto analytical posts is more than just isolated it could reach a social tipping point. For this I recommend you read Gladwell's The Tipping Point.
Now let me explain why is this important?
Dramatic social change does not come from the ether... and the desire for that dramatic social change, like all movements, requires little things, that in the aggregate speak of a society ready for that change. Before any major social change there are signs and symtoms that it is happening, that there is a zeitgeist shift, a paradigm shift. For things like the American Revolution it took about fifteen years. Suffice it to say some citizens felt they were still british even after the ink dried in the Paris Peace Treaty.
But this projection is part of those trends. It is hard as hell to spot. In fact in primary sources of the Revolution you can sort off see it in the pamphlets of the day... but the actual people projecting fears and desires is not easy to spot.
So look around, see if there are OTHER places where people are projecting their fears \ desires. And for those of you who are both fearful and who hope for one... here is where we are in the real world.
We passed the riot stage...
We are right now at the Civil Disobedience\ Public Protest stage. This is where most social conflicts end. Why? Those in power, the power elites, realize that they pushed a little too hard, to they essentially give in. Oh and this is NOT the XVI century when this stage came with actual popular uprisings, the worst of which was the Jacqerie. We are a tad more sophisticated than that. In my mind that is a good thing too.
Now let's play a percentage game on this because there are a couple things that will change this very NORMAL dynamic.
Will the Empire Collapse? Absolutely all do. Within my lifetime? 100% assured.
Within the next ten years... IMHO over 80% assured, the trends are there.
Within the next five years... IMHO in the high 60s.
Within the next year... if all things come tighter, and that includes the party of no playing it's role... in the fifties.
With this lead to more social dislocation? Is the Pope Catholic? That is what raises the specter of a civil war, imho and dissolution to the high 50s. No, it is not exactly a revolution. Civil Wars are not civil by the way, and we may have localized revolutions after this is well under way. At that point, see the USSR. all bets are off for about six months to a year.
Will we have an honest to goodness take to the streets, revolution? You know what Glen Beck keeps promising us but it never gets here? ok there is always odds of that, but IMHO it is somewhere between 5-10%... perhaps even lower than 5% at THIS TIME. See Empire Collapse that might rise in some REGIONS...
But the fact that people are projecting their own fears\desires is an important marker that I missed.
So thank you. I will keep paying attention to things like that.