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  1. #31  
    Senior Member Tecate's Avatar
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    The gold:silver ratio is tightening up quite a bit... Gold really hasn't done jack squat for the last 6 months while silver has been playing an overdue game of catch-up.

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  2. #32  
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    Quote Originally Posted by TruckerMe View Post
    It's been a while since Madisonian asked the question. But I do have a thought.

    Pick a sell price and stick with it! Just can't find a big enough font to make that point. You have a nice profit. The world, and history for that matter if full of people who had a profit and did not decide to sell. Detroit is full of ex-GM millionaires. There is a time to sell, and that time is when you say so. Pick it!
    I remember back in about '73 everyone was making a killing in silver, then they ALL LOST THEIR PROFIT!
    I remember back in '78 everyone was making a killing in gold, and THEY ALL LOST THEIR PROFIT!

    Pick your sell point today.
    5 to 10 per cent of your investments should be in gold and silver. That gives you another layer of diversification. The more diversification the better, Having all your money tied in a 401 is dangerous. The company could fold or the government might decide to force companies to invest in gov. securities. Same deal with stocks; the market could crash. There are no sure bets in where you put your money. Under the bed, in a Gov. bond or in a next to nothing interest in a bank is not an option for me.

    The Hunt brothers had something to do with the silver market crashing. Jimmy Carter was President in 1978;every thing crashed under his watch so that could explain gold sinking.
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  3. #33  
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    Nice points and comments from Tecate & Lacarnut.

    I disagree about holding 10 percent of assets in gold or silver, but that is just my opinion. Nothing more.

    Going back to Madisonion's position:
    If he bought silver at 5$, and it is now 32$, that means he has doubled his money 2 1/2 times in 20 years, or doubled his money every 8 years. 250%, say.
    Using the rule of 78 (Interest rate divided into 78= # of years to double your investment) that comes out to be about a 10 percent return on investment.
    Not bad.
    But in April, 1990, he could have bought the Dow for $2590. Today, he could sell it for 12,100. And that, also, is roughly a 250% return on investment. Not quite, but that's not counting the dividends he would have received from the stocks. I did far better with 3M stock that I bought for 500$ in 1982 and is worth 6,000 today. Still holding.
    Trouble is, of course, that he would have had to deal with near terminal heartburn from 1990 till fairly recently,having not made a profit in all that time.


    Point is: You or I could buy any number of stocks or ETF's that pay out that much, and be in a much more liquid position.
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  4. #34  
    Senior Member Tecate's Avatar
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    This should Really lift your spirits...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRvju...feature=relmfu
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  5. #35  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tecate View Post
    This should Really lift your spirits............
    Nah. Yuk.

    But then a lot of what the video showed I agree with. Those people stampeding into Walmart are, indeed, the stupidos of society. And no, not a single one of them has gold, or for that matter, any other asset to speak of.

    The average guy walking around has little to his name but next week's paycheck.

    But there is an awful lot in the video that I just shrug off. After all, you have to pick out for yourself what's real and what isn't.

    I didn't get caught in the silver rally of 1974 (+ -). Didn't get caught in the gold rush of '78. Didn't get caught flipping houses in 2007. Sold out of the market in 2007.
    Oh, yeah, and I sold WorldCom at 44$.:)

    There is nearly always a sector of the market that is doing well. Fortunes were made by those who read the market's decline and acted, but I wasn't one of those guys. Maybe next time.

    One more comment:
    The problem with owning silver or gold - I mean taking physical possession - is that there is no way to go short. Whereas, if I owned at ETF representing the value of silver or gold I could buy an ETF that represents the short side and make money on the way down.
    For example, if gold started going down I could easily buy DGZ and profit, whereas if I had the gold in my possession I'm kind of stuck on a one-way street.
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  6. #36  
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    Quote Originally Posted by TruckerMe View Post

    :
    The problem with owning silver or gold - I mean taking physical possession - is that there is no way to go short. Whereas, if I owned at ETF representing the value of silver or gold I could buy an ETF that represents the short side and make money on the way down.
    For example, if gold started going down I could easily buy DGZ and profit, whereas if I had the gold in my possession I'm kind of stuck on a one-way street.
    Owning physical gold or silver is not a problem from my perspective. I can always sell it at a good price to a company like APMEX who will pay me more than spot for gold Eagles or Krugs. Like I said no investment is a sure thing. That goes for real estate or the stock market.

    Gold and silver is going up because Helicopter Ben is printing money which will devalue the dollar, inflation is going up, debt is rising, food prices are going up, political unrest and EU economy and debt in shambles. All of these things benefit the price of metals. In my opinion, many of these things will not improve. Consequently, gold and silver could act as a hedge, an investment or a safety net.
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  7. #37  
    Senior Member Madisonian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tecate View Post
    The problem is, where do you park the fiat federal reserve notes when the US dollar is headed for the pooper?
    This is exactly the dilemma.

    With the flood of Bernake's bogus bills flooding the market, trading a hard physical asset for monopoly money just does not ring right for me yet.
    Now what I have done is trade about 75% of what I had in 10 ounce bullion for 1 ounce because while having to store more in quantity (300 instead of 30), should the SHTF, the smaller denominations will be easier to use if needed for bartering. Also I think it will be easier to launder the transactions with dealers and keep under the 1099 requirements should the need arise.

    The SHTF scenario is where I also think silver will be better than gold. If gold hits $2000 per ounce, how will someone make change for a 1 ounce Krugerrand? Sounds silly, but I think about things like that.

    As for stocks, the question is not always when to sell, but what to do with the money after you do.
    I did quite well on Ford, Visteon and American Axle by buying when everyone thought all 3 were going belly up ($3 average on F, sub $1 on Axl and .02 on Visteon) and selling at $17, $10 and $1.30 respectively), but the reinvestment of the profits has not done nearly as well with the recent downturn.
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  8. #38  
    LTC Member Odysseus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Madisonian View Post
    This is exactly the dilemma.

    With the flood of Bernake's bogus bills flooding the market, trading a hard physical asset for monopoly money just does not ring right for me yet.
    Now what I have done is trade about 75% of what I had in 10 ounce bullion for 1 ounce because while having to store more in quantity (300 instead of 30), should the SHTF, the smaller denominations will be easier to use if needed for bartering. Also I think it will be easier to launder the transactions with dealers and keep under the 1099 requirements should the need arise.

    The SHTF scenario is where I also think silver will be better than gold. If gold hits $2000 per ounce, how will someone make change for a 1 ounce Krugerrand? Sounds silly, but I think about things like that.

    As for stocks, the question is not always when to sell, but what to do with the money after you do.
    I did quite well on Ford, Visteon and American Axle by buying when everyone thought all 3 were going belly up ($3 average on F, sub $1 on Axl and .02 on Visteon) and selling at $17, $10 and $1.30 respectively), but the reinvestment of the profits has not done nearly as well with the recent downturn.
    I think that you've nailed the bullion/change/transaction issue. The obvious answer with the stock profits is more of the same, i.e., bullion and junk silver (older coins that have no numismatic value, but can be traded for the silver melt price). Also, a certain amount of copper-jacked lead is always a good investment in tough times.
    --Odysseus
    Sic Hacer Pace, Para Bellum.

    Before you can do things for people, you must be the kind of man who can get things done. But to get things done, you must love the doing, not the people!
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  9. #39  
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    There is nearly always a sector of the market that is doing well. Fortunes were made by those who read the market's decline and acted, but I wasn't one of those guys. Maybe next time.
    If the SHTF there will still be a place to make money.

    On Black Wednesday, as it is call in the U.K., people lost billions.
    http://http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday
    And George Soros made 1.1 billion.

    Soros read the markets, understood them, and had his bets placed well before the collapse of the British Pound. When he realized that he was right he began doubling and tripling his position. He has said that he is rich because he is quick to recognize when he is wrong, not because he is always right.

    I believe him.

    Believe it or not, money will always exist.
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  10. #40  
    Senior Member Madisonian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Odysseus View Post
    Also, a certain amount of copper-jacked lead is always a good investment in tough times.
    about 2,000 each in 7.62x39, .223, 9mm, 38spcl/357 should keep me covered for a while...:D
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