None of it is certain. Not one of them, regardless of their occupation, can accurately predict the weather for day after tomorrow with 100% accuracy. They all seem very intent on ignoring geological data on past warming and cooling trends.
To admit these patterns are cyclic would cast doubt on their studies and maybe ruin their chances for next year's multi million dollar grant from Uncle Sam.
I look outside for my weather. It's cold, in the 50's, the leaves have changed weeks early, the deer and elk have already moved down from the mountains - weeks early. There's plenty of feed for them in the hills thanks to the unusually heavy rains we've had. They shouldn't be down yet.
It ain't globally warmin' around this neck of the woods. It's looking like another hard, cold, snowy winter.