Latest CBS/NYTimes poll has Romney ahead of Obama 46-43.
|
|
06-26-2012, 10:37 AM
June 25, 2012
New York Slimes
09-12-2012, 09:43 AM
The Parade of Bad Polls Continues
Pointing out the flaws in worthless polls would be a full-time job, if anyone were willing to undertake it. Today’s example comes from CNN and ORC. News organizations report on polls like this one as though they meant something; this one will be popular with media organizations because it shows President Obama with a six-point lead over Mitt Romney among likely voters. But a cursory review of the poll data shows that if it means anything at all, it is good news for Romney.
To begin with, the CNN/ORC poll follows on the heels of another survey by the same organizations two weeks earlier. The findings–based, obviously, on a small sample–suggest that four percent of voters changed their minds about the Democratic Party over the space of two weeks.:
[chart]
That is, of course, ridiculous. What happened, rather, is that the second sample contained a lot more Democrats than the first one.
If the CNN/ORC poll contains any significant finding, it is this: independents favored Romney over Obama by 14%. That’s right, 14%:
[chart]
If Romney carries independents by anything like that margin, the election won’t be close. The pollsters found that virtually all Democrats are voting for Obama and virtually all Republicans are voting for Romney, so someone with quicker math skills than mine can pretty quickly figure out how much they had to over-sample Democrats to come out with Obama winning by six points.
Really, this whole exercise is getting tiresome. Yet one question remains: where is the poll that over-samples Republicans?
UPDATE: A commenter calculates:
to get to those totals the following breakdown works…
D – 38.
I – 36.
R – 26.
that’s D+12, right…
Powerlineblog
---------------------------------------
Most of the polling numbers are as phony as it gets. Today's ABC/ WaPo Presidential poll report, is based on 33% demos, 23% Repubs, and 37% independents? You can bet that these percentages are based on only one thing, generating the results they wanted to generate. But, really, what is the purpose of the 'news poll' other than to give authority to a news story that has no authority.
09-12-2012, 04:35 PM
The polls are all fixed to point obama out to be the winner. Which is why I don't follow them. This is 1980 all over again. Come November 6th, the Dems are going to be in for quite a surprise. I look for some polling company to shut down because of it.
09-14-2012, 11:37 AM
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 45% of the vote. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ..._tracking_poll
09-15-2012, 08:26 PM
Apparently spanking Gallop with a couple of lawsuits got them back in lockstep with Obama.
Having the power of the social Justice Dept is handy when you know how to use it.
09-16-2012, 12:46 PM
| « Previous Thread | Next Thread » |
| Bookmarks |
Bookmarks |
