John Phillips: Why Hillary Clinton must run in 2012

[Gingersnap]

John Phillips: Why Hillary Clinton must run in 2012

April 4, 2011 | 2:22 am

Hillary Clinton Told You So Button 2012If Hillary Clinton's primary voters and President Obama had their relationship status listed on their Facebook pages, it would change from “Married” to “It's complicated.”

To be fair, Hillary voters never fell in love with Obama, they just fell in line. Their relationship is less like a Julia Roberts chick flick and more like a Bengali arranged marriage.

Because of their arrangement, Hillary-loving Obama voters are quick to jump ship whenever Mr. Hope-and-Change looks like he's getting played again by his political opponents, is in over his head or is dissing their girl.

Despite Obama's anti-climactic campaign announcement just now, according to all the recent polls, Hillary voters aren't only jumping ship –- they're taking their fins, snorkels and pina coladas with them.

A new Quinnipiac University poll shows President Obama's approval rating at....
...a pathetic 42% –- down four points from early March. The American public isn't impressed with his handling of the crisis in Libya either -– with 47% of the public against the war and 58% of registered voters saying the president has not clearly stated U.S. goals for the mission.

Hillary Clinton 2012 button These numbers are bad –- really bad –- CNN prime time ratings bad.

To put them into context, according to Gallup, 76% of Americans supported military action against Iraq in 2003, 90% gave the A-OK for strikes against Afghanistan in 2001, and 65% approved of putting boots on the ground in Somalia in 1993.

It's also important to state that this isn't part of a "throw all the bums out" mood directed at Washington.

The approval numbers for Hillary are nearing an all-time high –- with Gallup showing 66% of Americans giving "Hill the Thrill" a big thumbs up –- up from 61% in July.

This leads to the questions: Why are one out of three Hillary lovers giving Obama bad marks? Will they stick with him in November 2012?

And, most importantly, if she senses enough blood in the water, will Hillary quit the administration and launch a primary bid against Obama?

LA Times

[Arroyo_Doble]

That was interesting. Why did the author of the piece use Gallup for everything except the president's approval rating and instead uses Quinnipiac?

[Odysseus]

LA Times

Not a chance. A Hillary primary run would have three possible outcomes:

• She loses and Obama limps into the general election after a brusing primary in which all of his shortcomings are identified by a fellow Democrat, and thus vetted for use by Republicans. Hillary will be blamed for his loss.
  
• She loses and Obama ekes out a narrow victory in the general election, in which case, her political options are reduced to trying to regain her senate seat (against an incumbent who will have full party support), or retiring to "spend time with her family".
  
• She wins, alienating black voters, who, unlike feminists, will not forgive the defeat of their preferred candidate. Hillary would then have to campaign in the general election without a key Democratic voting block, roughly 12% of the population that normally gives Democrats 90+% of its votes. If the normal Democratic base is 39% of the electorate, then the loss of the black vote puts the Democratic base at roughly 32% of the remaining total of votes cast, assuming that blacks don't vote, but simply sit on their hands. Given that the black vote is concentrated in the bluest states, with the highest electoral vote tallies (California, New York, Illinois), the loss of the black vote could tip these states to the Republicans, giving Hillary McGovernesque numbers.

There is also a very remote possibility of her winning the general election after a tough primary, but the odds on that are somewhere between slim and none.

[fettpett]

Not a chance. A Hillary primary run would have three possible outcomes:

• She loses and Obama limps into the general election after a brusing primary in which all of his shortcomings are identified by a fellow Democrat, and thus vetted for use by Republicans. Hillary will be blamed for his loss.
  
• She loses and Obama ekes out a narrow victory in the general election, in which case, her political options are reduced to trying to regain her senate seat (against an incumbent who will have full party support), or retiring to "spend time with her family".
  
• She wins, alienating black voters, who, unlike feminists, will not forgive the defeat of their preferred candidate. Hillary would then have to campaign in the general election without a key Democratic voting block, roughly 12% of the population that normally gives Democrats 90+% of its votes. If the normal Democratic base is 39% of the electorate, then the loss of the black vote puts the Democratic base at roughly 32% of the remaining total of votes cast, assuming that blacks don't vote, but simply sit on their hands. Given that the black vote is concentrated in the bluest states, with the highest electoral vote tallies (California, New York, Illinois), the loss of the black vote could tip these states to the Republicans, giving Hillary McGovernesque numbers.

There is also a very remote possibility of her winning the general election after a tough primary, but the odds on that are somewhere between slim and none.

oh come on, you know you wanna see a repeat of the 1912 election :D

[lacarnut]

Not a chance. A Hillary primary run would have three possible outcomes:

• She loses and Obama limps into the general election after a brusing primary in which all of his shortcomings are identified by a fellow Democrat, and thus vetted for use by Republicans. Hillary will be blamed for his loss.
  
• She loses and Obama ekes out a narrow victory in the general election, in which case, her political options are reduced to trying to regain her senate seat (against an incumbent who will have full party support), or retiring to "spend time with her family".
  
• She wins, alienating black voters, who, unlike feminists, will not forgive the defeat of their preferred candidate. Hillary would then have to campaign in the general election without a key Democratic voting block, roughly 12% of the population that normally gives Democrats 90+% of its votes. If the normal Democratic base is 39% of the electorate, then the loss of the black vote puts the Democratic base at roughly 32% of the remaining total of votes cast, assuming that blacks don't vote, but simply sit on their hands. Given that the black vote is concentrated in the bluest states, with the highest electoral vote tallies (California, New York, Illinois), the loss of the black vote could tip these states to the Republicans, giving Hillary McGovernesque numbers.

There is also a very remote possibility of her winning the general election after a tough primary, but the odds on that are somewhere between slim and none.

I think she could win the nomination if Obama's numbers keep going in the toilet. Democratic voters are fickle and would dump the Magic Negro if they perceive that he does not stand a good chance of defeating the Republican.

You are correct about blacks and die in the wool Obama supporters staying home on election day. In that case, the Repub would win overwhelmingly. I doubt Hillary will take that chance. She will wait till 016 to throw her hat in the ring.

[Lager]

There are two probabilities with Hillary. Either she's serious when she says she will not run for President, in which case she steps down from her post at the end of this term and retires from political life. It's possible, but it seem's hard to believe someone with her ambition has had enough already.

If she truly wants a go at 2016, then she becomes Vice-President for his next term. She'll do this because otherwise she'd have no way of keeping involved and in the spotlight, and I don't think she has the energy to keep the Sec of State job, or desire to go back to being a Senator.

[noonwitch]

I don't think she will run unless Obama for some reason does not run for re-election, and he just announced that he is running.


Lager's VP scenario is a possibility, though, if Biden were to step down. Then again, Biden is Obama's Quayle-assassination insurance.

[Arroyo_Doble]

I don't think she will run unless Obama for some reason does not run for re-election, and he just announced that he is running.


Lager's VP scenario is a possibility, though, if Biden were to step down. Then again, Biden is Obama's Quayle-assassination insurance.

2008 was her year. She lost. Chances are, she has moved on.

[fettpett]

2008 was her year. She lost. Chances are, she has moved on.

She's a Clinton...the Clinton's don't "move on"

[AmPat]

That was interesting. Why did the author of the piece use Gallup for everything except the president's approval rating and instead uses Quinnipiac?

Obviously a VRWC ploy. O Blah Blah is actually suceeding. His policies are rock solid and effective. These numbers are obviously skewed to make His Awesomeness look bad.