John Phillips: Why Hillary Clinton must run in 2012

[Bailey]

Obviously a VRWC ploy. O Blah Blah is actually suceeding. His policies are rock solid and effective. These numbers are obviously skewed to make His Awesomeness look bad.

They dont want him to make it look to easy

[Odysseus]

2008 was her year. She lost. Chances are, she has moved on.

Whether or not she has moved on, the party has. She won't run in 2012, and if a popular Republican is up for reelection in 2016, she won't run then, either. By 2020, she'll be considered an elder stateswoman in the party, but that and $350 will get you a latte at 2020 rates.

What will be more interesting is if she dumps Bill after his next public scandal.

As for prognosticating 2012, I don't see a primary challenge to Obama, but if the party convinces him not to run (only possible if his poll numbers approach single digits), then no Democrat will want to run, and Biden will most likely be the sacrificial lamb, as he's one of the few politicians deluded enough to think that he'd have a chance under those circumstances.

[SaintLouieWoman]

I think she could win the nomination if Obama's numbers keep going in the toilet. Democratic voters are fickle and would dump the Magic Negro if they perceive that he does not stand a good chance of defeating the Republican.

You are correct about blacks and die in the wool Obama supporters staying home on election day. In that case, the Repub would win overwhelmingly. I doubt Hillary will take that chance. She will wait till 016 to throw her hat in the ring.

I don't buy the 2016. Hillary will be too old. She's already starting to look bad (she never looked all that good) and by 2016 she'll be way too old. It's sad that women take a bigger blow with that ageism thing.

[Odysseus]

I don't buy the 2016. Hillary will be too old. She's already starting to look bad (she never looked all that good) and by 2016 she'll be way too old. It's sad that women take a bigger blow with that ageism thing.

Margaret Thatcher was over 50 when she became Prime Minister, and was hardly a stunner at that point in her life.



Of course, as a young woman, she was much more attractive, as seen here during a debate with Clement Atlee. :D

[CueSi]

Margaret Thatcher was over 50 when she became Prime Minister, and was hardly a stunner at that point in her life.



Of course, as a young woman, she was much more attractive, as seen here during a debate with Clement Atlee. :D

I beg to differ... she's good looking for a Brit AND a female politician. She comes across as your Wifes boss/Literature Professor. Kinda stuffy, but an all around good bird.

~QC

[Arroyo_Doble]

Whether or not she has moved on, the party has. She won't run in 2012, and if a popular Republican is up for reelection in 2016, she won't run then, either.

If Obama loses in 2012 (which is possible, but right now looks unlikely) there will be a totally different Democratic field in 2016. Clinton, Biden, Gore, Kerry, all the old guard Senate muscle that they have relied on as their top candidates will be out of the picture in favor of state leadership. You will see new blood because an Obama defeat means that the economy has tanked and with Republican leadership starting in 2013, a dismantling of the social safety net in favor of a privatized, Darwinistic society. In that instance, the Several States will be where effective Democratic leadership is found and where the less-than-55 will revolt at getting the Ryan fucking (they keep paying but see none of the benefits when it is their turn).

By 2020, she'll be considered an elder stateswoman in the party, but that and $350 will get you a latte at 2020 rates.

It also gets you free trips to hot spots and good speaking gigs to pad the bank account.

What will be more interesting is if she dumps Bill after his next public scandal.

I have had a similar conversation with my wife (who cannot stand Hillary Clinton). She insists that it is all just political expediency. I disagree. After the 2008 Democratic Primary, I came to the conclusion that as disfuctional as their marriage may seem, they genuinely care about each other. Bill got pissed and I know that type of anger; it is the anger of a man who sees his wife, his partner and the person he loves most, in distress caused by another.

As for prognosticating 2012, I don't see a primary challenge to Obama, but if the party convinces him not to run (only possible if his poll numbers approach single digits), then no Democrat will want to run, and Biden will most likely be the sacrificial lamb, as he's one of the few politicians deluded enough to think that he'd have a chance under those circumstances.

Anything is possible but single digits would mean the complete and total collapse of American governing institutions.

[Odysseus]

If Obama loses in 2012 (which is possible, but right now looks unlikely) there will be a totally different Democratic field in 2016. Clinton, Biden, Gore, Kerry, all the old guard Senate muscle that they have relied on as their top candidates will be out of the picture in favor of state leadership. You will see new blood because an Obama defeat means that the economy has tanked and with Republican leadership starting in 2013, a dismantling of the social safety net in favor of a privatized, Darwinistic society. In that instance, the Several States will be where effective Democratic leadership is found and where the less-than-55 will revolt at getting the Ryan fucking (they keep paying but see none of the benefits when it is their turn).

And what would you like for your second wish, Effendi? :D

Seriously, if the economy has tanked to the extent that you are assuming (and I think that this is very likely), it's unlikely that Democrats at the state level will be immune from the coming storm, as they will have been the ones who bankrupted the states. The less-than-55 folks will be rebelling, but not against fiscal conservatism. They will be doing everything in their power to keep their retirement money out of Social Security, which is already in deficit.

It also gets you free trips to hot spots and good speaking gigs to pad the bank account.

She'll take the speaking gigs, but it's unlikely that she'll want to do the travel. Hillary isn't interested in solving the world's problems, she's interested in raking in bucks.

I have had a similar conversation with my wife (who cannot stand Hillary Clinton). She insists that it is all just political expediency. I disagree. After the 2008 Democratic Primary, I came to the conclusion that as disfuctional as their marriage may seem, they genuinely care about each other. Bill got pissed and I know that type of anger; it is the anger of a man who sees his wife, his partner and the person he loves most, in distress caused by another.

Could be, but I suspect that it was seeing his return trip to the White House getting shorted by someone that he held in contempt. Bill, for all of his faults as a president, governor and husband (oh, what the hell, all of his faults as a human being), has some genuine accomplishments to his credit. He was an attorney general, a governor, and he'd come up from a fairly rough background, so his accomplishments were genuinely his own. Hillary rode Bill's coattails, but she was a practicing attorney, and served on a number of high profile congressional committees as counsel at a relatively young age. Obama is a dilletante who has had everything handed to him, but still manages to play the victim card whenever he can get away with it. He's never practiced law, despite having the degree, and his professorship was actually a guest lecturer gig. Bill must have wanted to strangle him when he had to take over that press conference.

Anything is possible but single digits would mean the complete and total collapse of American governing institutions.

Or Obama's policies take full effect, but that's pretty much the same thing. The black vote will never abandon him, and that's 12% right there. There are enough foolish liberals who will be unable to admit that they made a mistake, or who will continue to believe that everything that has happened to Obama is the fault of vast rightwing conspiracies and not his ineptitude and lack of qualifications to maintain his poll numbers at the base, but if Obama goes into the election with approval numbers below 45%, he's toast.

[Starbuck]

I don't think she'll want to be Obama's VP.
VPs sometimes become presidents because the public wants the old Prez's policies extended. Good examples are Bush 41, who followed Reagan, and Gore who did not follow Clinton.

[Arroyo_Doble]

And what would you like for your second wish, Effendi? :D

Rational, pragmatic efforts on the part of our leaders to address the various systemic problems facing this nation from stagering debt, insane medical costs, concentrated wealth, and the collapse of the American job market.

Seriously, if the economy has tanked to the extent that you are assuming (and I think that this is very likely), it's unlikely that Democrats at the state level will be immune from the coming storm, as they will have been the ones who bankrupted the states.

Not to put too fine a point on it but not every state with budget problems has been run by Democrats. Living in Texas like myself, that should be obvious to you.

The less-than-55 folks will be rebelling, but not against fiscal conservatism. They will be doing everything in their power to keep their retirement money out of Social Security, which is already in deficit.

I know people who are in that sweet spot that are still waiting for the 2008 carnage in private retirement investments to be made back. I don't mean up-to-the-minute stock followers and gold bugs who sweat every single day but people who look at banks and investment houses with suspicion bordering on outright distrust. They work and save and are pissed off at what happened. If you think they are going to see Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo as saviors to be embraced, I think you are mistaken. Add to that the fact that they will still have to support through taxes the same system they are being denied by the Ryan Fucking and you have a recipe for electoral disaster.

Or Obama's policies take full effect, but that's pretty much the same thing. The black vote will never abandon him, and that's 12% right there. There are enough foolish liberals who will be unable to admit that they made a mistake, or who will continue to believe that everything that has happened to Obama is the fault of vast rightwing conspiracies and not his ineptitude and lack of qualifications to maintain his poll numbers at the base, but if Obama goes into the election with approval numbers below 45%, he's toast.

I know it may sound weird to you but not everyone hates Obama.

[lacarnut]

If Obama loses in 2012 (which is possible, but right now looks unlikely) there will be a totally different Democratic field in 2016. Clinton, Biden, Gore, Kerry, all the old guard Senate muscle that they have relied on as their top candidates will be out of the picture in favor of state leadership. You will see new blood because an Obama defeat means that the economy has tanked and with Republican leadership starting in 2013, a dismantling of the social safety net in favor of a privatized, Darwinistic society. In that instance, the Several States will be where effective Democratic leadership is found and where the less-than-55 will revolt at getting the Ryan fucking (they keep paying but see none of the benefits when it is their turn).

In your analysis several things that you failed to take into consideration regarding Obama re-election.
1. He was hired to fix the economy. Unemployment has risen (10 million out of work) since he took office, and 8.8% is a phony number put out by the government and everyone knows it. There is only 19 months left before election day and it will me a miracle if it gets below 8%.

2. Pocket book issues such as rises in gasoline and food will hurt his campaign. Inflation is getting ready to rear it's ugly head in the form of much higher food costs.

3. While families are cutting back on expenses, Obama is going on vacation just about every month. That does not sit too well with many in the middle class that can not go on vacation period.

4. The huge debt Democrats have rung up is also a big problem that is parroted by my members in his own party such as tax cheat Geithner and Helicopter Ben.

5. The housing market is still in shambles. People have lost value in their homes and in their 401k.

Foreign policy have never been the strength of Democrats in Presidential election so we won't even go there. However, the economy is where the electorate has favored Democrats over Republicans. With unemployment high, a slowing improving economy, high debt, higher inflation on the horizon, I don't think Obama or Hillary has a Chinaman's chance at winning.

FYI, the fucking Ryan fucking budget plan is what we need. However, a trillion dollar in cuts would surprise me cause there are too many old dogs (D & R) that will not allow those kind of cuts. Additionally, Medicare is in greater critical care of running out of funding than SS. SS can be fixed. Medicare and Medicaid will be much, much more difficult. Obamacare will just add to the problems. The lie that it will save money has been exposed.