This should be an easy win for the Republicans if they stay on topic that the voters are concerned about. It is the economy stupid, a solution to energy, debt and don't get side tracked on other issues. The economy and unemployment are in the tank. Hammering Obama on these issues rather than water-boarding and social issues is the ticket to success.
Here is another issues that pollsters do not take into account. There are blue states like MA, CA, etc that the Repub candidate will not win. Therefore, a poll counting those Obama supporters is meaningless. I think that the Repub candidate can win every red state that Obama won last election. I would like to see a poll for those states. Game over for Obama if that is the case.