Thread: China's Drought: A Game Changer ?

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  1. #1 China's Drought: A Game Changer ? 
    An Adversary of Linda #'s
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    Earlier, I pointed out that the drought in China along the Yangtze River region is now becoming the worst in many years. Some people blamed the Three Gorges Dam, noting some correlation between building large dams and droughts in neighbouring regions, although it is too hard to say with absolute certainty that it is the case.

    Whatever causes the drought, some people raised concerns on the China drought situation and its impact on the economy. At the moment, quite frankly, I have very little idea on how serious the problem can be, except that I suspect it is not going to help with the inflation situation, particularly the food prices inflation in near term.

    The big China bull Jim Rogers said earlier that the water problem, if not properly solved, will mean the end of the China story. Bill Bishop, who described himself as in the “China can muddle through” camp, agrees that the drought is a game changer.

    In his own words, Jim Rogers said:

    I don’t mind if China has civil wars, epidemics, panics, depressions, all of that. You can recover from that. The only you cannot recover from is water… China has a horrible water problem in the North… If China doesn’t solve its water problem, there is no China story. I’ve been around the world for a couple of times. I see whole societies, cities, countries, disappeared when the water disappeared.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/china...changer-2011-6
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  2. #2  
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    The fact China bears and sceptics have been wrong for 20+ years gives people huge confidence that China can muddle through. ............
    Kind of an exaggeration, I think. There have been China skeptics for 20 years, I am sure. Just not all that many of them. Nowadays there are plenty of us.

    Here's a five year chart for FXI, which is one of the Chinese stock market ETF's. Looks like the party's over from here.

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  3. #3  
    An Adversary of Linda #'s
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    Quote Originally Posted by TruckerMe View Post
    Kind of an exaggeration, I think. There have been China skeptics for 20 years, I am sure. Just not all that many of them. Nowadays there are plenty of us.

    Here's a five year chart for FXI, which is one of the Chinese stock market ETF's. Looks like the party's over from here.

    China's working hard to keep their economy buoyed up by building entire cities without occupents and floating huge loans to their capitol markets.

    Their economy will stall without expanding markets and more energy to power industry .A large part of their capitol gains are tied up in American T-bills and they are just starting to switch to gold reserves .Their need for oil and electric energy grows expotentially and they need more unpoluted land to grow more food thus their attempts to buy land in Brazil ..

    ..Just a few major setbacks like large earthquakes will deflate the Chinese economic balloon .They've already had one major earthquake that destroyed a large part of their Nuclear stockpile of warheads and created a very large nuclear radiation wasteland .
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