#1 Obama’s Chances of Re-Election are Slipping Away: He's Very Beatable
06-13-2011, 03:04 PM
- Join Date
- Aug 2005
Obama is very beatable. The latest CNN survey tells us Obama loses 50/45 to a generic unmanned Republican. For prospective, in 2003 the best a generic Democrat could do against George Bush still had Bush on top 47/43. …. “A survey of over 2100 voters, taken at the very moment Obama was announcing his re-election campaign, points to seriously bad news for him and his Party. The Zogby Poll taken in early April found that Obama’s re-election is opposed by a margin of 61/31 in the all important “battleground” states. What should be alarming to Democrats is that not only...
My take on 2012:
Obama is not going to win any state he lost in 2008. That gives any Republican candidate — no matter how clownish — a base of 179 electoral votes.
Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida were very close and will likely flip back to “R” in 2012 — again regardless of Republican candidate. That is another 73 Electoral votes which brings the strong Republican total to 252.
Let’s make the South solid again and assume Virginia goes Republican. After all, they elected a Republican governor in 2009, and several new Republicans Representatives in 2010. Add another 13 votes and we are up to 265 votes.
That means Obama has to run the table on these states (in reverse order of likelihood) to win: Iowa, Colorado, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. He could also lose either New Hampshire or New Mexico, but not both.
Note that if NM goes Republican, then the vote is tied, and the election goes into the House of Representatives. 26 states yields a winner. I am not sure, but I believe that there are Republican majorities in more than half of the 50 state delegations.
So Obama can still win, but he has a big boulder to roll uphill to do so.
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