Quote Originally Posted by Arroyo_Doble View Post
No. Romney has the ability to believe what he says even if it conflicts with what he said not 15 minutes earlier. Obama hasn't figured out how to do that yet.
Obama has the capacity to say things that nobody would believe with a straight face. Even Romney can't do that.
Quote Originally Posted by Arroyo_Doble View Post
He can win without two of the big three, OH and FL, assuming he loses VA, IN, and NC.

But if he loses NH, it goes to the House. If he loses NH and NE-01 (he leads in the latest poll I saw against all Republican candidates), he loses the race 270-268.

All this assumes he keeps everything else.
If the midterms are any indication, the Obama isn't likely to keep all of his states from the previous run. Obama's approval ratings have gone from the low 80s to the low 40s. Obama has lost a tremendous amount of approval among independents, and a significant number of Democrats (the special election in Anthony Weiner's old district means that even places that Obama carried by double digits are no longer safe). Any state that Obama won by less than 12% should be considered in play, and any state that he won by less than 7% should be considered a likely loss this time, just based on his dropping approval numbers, and presuming that the eventual Republican nominee doesn't decide to throw the race by not campaigning, a la McCain. Here are the states that Obama won in 2008, the number of electoral votes and the margin of victory. Anything in red is a likely turnover, and anything in bold is in play.

Florida (27) 49.0 47.2 Obama +1.8
Virginia (13) 50.2 45.8 Obama +4.4
Ohio (20) 48.8 46.3 Obama +2.5
Colorado (9) 50.8 45.3 Obama +5.5
Nevada (5) 50.3 43.8 Obama +6.5

Pennsylvania (21) 51.0 43.7 Obama +7.3
New Mexico (5) 50.3 43.0 Obama +7.3
Minnesota (10) 51.6 41.8 Obama +9.8
New Hampshire (4) 52.8 42.2 Obama +10.6
Wisconsin (10) 52.8 41.8 Obama +11.0
Mississippi (6) 39.3 50.7 McCain +11.4

Iowa (7) 54.0 38.7 Obama +15.3
New Jersey (15) 54.5 39.0 Obama +15.5
Oregon (7) 55.3 39.7 Obama +15.6
Washington (11) 53.7 40.7 Obama +13.0
Michigan (17) 52.5 39.0 Obama +13.5
Maine (4) 54.4 38.8 Obama +15.6
California (55) 58.7 34.3 Obama +24.4
Massachusetts (12) 57.0 35.7 Obama +21.3
Connecticut (7) 55.3 36.0 Obama +19.3
New York (31) 62.0 32.3 Obama +29.7
Illinois (21) 59.0 34.3 Obama +24.7

That means that Obama starts off with a likely drop of 74 electoral votes, with an additional 56 in play. Given the last election's tally, Obama/Biden 365 vs. McCain/Palin 173, having 130 electoral votes in play, with a likely loss of 74, gives Obama a margin of only 23 electoral votes out of those 56. If Obama cannot hold that line, he's toast. In addition, a number of formerly blue states have managed to work proportional allocation of electors into the process, thanks to Republican majorities after the 2010 elections. Even if Obama wins these states, he may not win enough of their electors to keep him in office.