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  1. #1 Your Tue. Prediction. 
    Destroyer of Worlds Apocalypse's Avatar
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    Lets see what each think Tue. caucus will have on the field.

    This is mine.

    Rick Perry Limps through, but is in the lower tier. My guess he continues on for 2 more states, then folds due to poor showing.

    Jon Huntsman, Jr After Tue, he is done. Jon comes in dead last and doesn't continue on.

    Michele Bachmann Done after Tue. She doesn't come in last, but near enough. Her campaign is falling apart, and she has run out of funds. Iowa is her last best hope to continue and will not see it.

    Rick Santorum He's banked every thing on Iowa, and will see at-least a 3rd place or better finish here. But he's running on a shoe-string budget, and like Bachmann, is betting every thing on Iowa to save his bid, and help him finally see the cash he needs to continue. But that is where I question his run. He may do well here, but 7 days after Iowa is New Hampshire, followed 4 days later Nevada. Can he turn a legging campaign with near little cash into a thriving 3+ state bid in such short time. Especially since he's done so much here in Iowa, but considerable less in the following states. My prediction, he does decent in Iowa, but unless his fortunes change quick, 3 maybe 4 states later, he's done.

    Mitt Romney My prediction, he takes Iowa. It's a close run with some of the other, but its enough. To that, I think he's going to be the tough one to beat for the others. At this point, its going to take some thing ugly in his past to trip him up.

    Ron Paul This is the year for Paul, and he knows it. He doesn't take Iowa, but comes in some where around 3rd with a decent showing for him. Paul is one of those who will continue on regardless. So I don't see him dropping until its clear, he can't win. And even then I'm not sure he will drop.

    Newt Gingrich Newt is falling apart, but I see him still having a decent showing regardless. At this time, I just can't figure if he survives a few more states or not. Or if he makes a rebound.
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  2. #2  
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    Ron Paul never drops out. He takes defeat to the bitter end and beyond.
     

  3. #3  
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    The Catholic conservatives can fund Gingrich, but cut their losses on Santorum.
    The LDS will fund Romney to the Moon.
    Ron Paul's fans will cheer him on til the last.

    Everyone else in play up to now is history after Iowa.

    Neither Romney, Paul, or Gingrich will get the GOP nomination. The savior is waiting in the wings.
     

  4. #4  
    Senior Member Molon Labe's Avatar
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    Too many ups and downs in Iowa for most of the candidates. Steady usually wins.....

    1. Paul 28% Pulls in paleos and overwhelmingly independants.

    2. Romney 25% Gop faithful estab types in Iowa

    3. Santorum 16% will be done after NH

    4. Gingrich 11% will be in the race for some time....still polling high nationally. If he doesn't finish in top 3 in NH......done.

    5. Perry 10% goes to NH then done

    6. Bachman 8% done

    7. Huntsman 3% Huntsman's running well in Iowa...he will continue at least there.

    PPP polls come out tonight.
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  5. #5  
    CU Royalty JB's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Apocalypse View Post
    Jon Huntsman, Jr After Tue, he is done. Jon comes in dead last and doesn't continue on.
    Huntsman's strategy all along was to forego Iowa and concentrate his efforts in New Hampshire.

    He won't drop out of the race no matter where he finishes in Iowa.
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  6. #6  
    Senior Member Janice's Avatar
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    I just sent more money to Santorum and Bachmann. Like Ron Paul I too am 'going to keep on goin' to the end.

    And of course, put my money where my mouth is. They need it now more than ever.

    Voters decide elections, not polsters. And hopefully not in Iowa alone.
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  7. #7  
    Senior Member Molon Labe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Janice View Post
    Media and polling drive voting trends and decide elections, not average voters . And hopefully not in Iowa alone.
    fixed.

    There is just no denying the influence our MSM and polsters have on driving up preferences.

    Look at the tweets I posted. It's never been clearer.
    Gun Control: The theory that a woman found dead in an alley, raped and strangled with her panty hose, is somehow morally superior to a woman explaining to police how her attacker got that fatal bullet wound - Unknown


    The problem is Empty People, Not Loaded Guns - Linda Schrock Taylor
     

  8. #8  
    Senior Ape Articulate_Ape's Avatar
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    Paul wins Iowa and it "doesn't count" because Paul wins Iowa.

    Paul wins NH and it's a fluke and marginalizes NH as a state.

    States become more and more useless to the GOP establishment as Paul wins in more and more of them.

    Call it a hunch.
    "Our president delivered his State of the Union message to Congress. That is one of the things his contract calls for -- to tell congress the condition of the country. This message, as I say, is to Congress. The rest of the people know the condition of the country, for they live in it, but Congress has no idea what is going on in America, so the president has to tell 'em." ~ Will Rogers
     

  9. #9  
    PORCUS MAXIMUS Rockntractor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Articulate_Ape View Post
    Paul wins Iowa and it "doesn't count" because Paul wins Iowa.

    Paul wins NH and it's a fluke and marginalizes NH as a state.

    States become more and more useless to the GOP establishment as Paul wins in more and more of them.

    Call it a hunch.
    Who this Paul?
    How is obama working out for you?
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  10. #10  
    LTC Member Odysseus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Articulate_Ape View Post
    Paul wins Iowa and it "doesn't count" because Paul wins Iowa.

    Paul wins NH and it's a fluke and marginalizes NH as a state.

    States become more and more useless to the GOP establishment as Paul wins in more and more of them.

    Call it a hunch.
    Paul might win Iowa, since caucuses are about intensity of support, but he will not win New Hampshire. He'll end up going into the convention with about 20% of all delegates, his high water mark, but will not win the nomination. He'll end up playing Buchanan to Romney's Dole. Romney will come in second in most places, but the first place positions will be split among other candidates, with Gingrich and Santorum trading off first place with him in other primaries. Because the Republicans apportion delegates proportionally, rather than winner take all, they'll go into the convention with Romney having a plurality of delegates, but not a majority, and the whole thing will end up being decided on the floor votes, but not the first round. If that's the case, then it could be anyone.
    --Odysseus
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