Poll: Newt Surging in South Carolina

[SaintLouieWoman]

Townhall sent out the results of the latest Insider Advantage poll. They seem to be pushing both Santorum and Gingrich---the anything but Mitt strategy.

Townhall

Poll: Gingrich Surging in South Carolina
Wednesday, January 11, 2012 10:45 PM

The InsiderAdvantage poll of South Carolina likely Republican primary voters shows Newt Gingrich surging, coming within a statistical tie of Mitt Romney.

The poll of 726 registered voters was completed Wednesday night and offered the following results:

Romney -- 23 percent
Gingrich -- 21 percent
Santorum -- 14 percent
Paul -- 13 percent
Huntsman -- 7 percent
Perry -- 5 percent

[djones520]

This could be interesting.

[noonwitch]

Is it an open primary? If it is, watch for a write-in campaign by dems crossing over and voting for Stephen Colbert, who is joking about it but not exactly discouraging it.


Not that it would accomplish anything.

[Molon Labe]

Is it an open primary? If it is, watch for a write-in campaign by dems crossing over and voting for Stephen Colbert, who is joking about it but not exactly discouraging it.


Not that it would accomplish anything.

Colbert is pulling in more votes than Rick Perry BTW...

5% to 4% I believe.

[sgrooms]

Just for curiosity sake, what happens if Newt does win South Carolina? Does this prolong the nomination process or simply forestall it for Mitt?

[Molon Labe]

Just for curiosity sake, what happens if Newt does win South Carolina? Does this prolong the nomination process or simply forestall it for Mitt?

Nothing's over yet. Mitt doesn't have this wrapped up till way later. Newt is in the game, but no money. Paul has lot's of money and says he's going the distance....han't won a primary yet though.

It is my opinion...but based on what you are asking it will prolong Mitt because Newt cannot win the GOP nomination. Too much baggage.

[Arroyo_Doble]

Just for curiosity sake, what happens if Newt does win South Carolina?

The Republican Party shits a collective brick because that means the Bain attack worked ..... on Republicans voting in the primary and that means they are truly boned if they don't put a lid on this apostasy fast.

[Adam Wood]

Just for curiosity sake, what happens if Newt does win South Carolina? Does this prolong the nomination process or simply forestall it for Mitt?

Couple of different ways to look at it:

No GOP candidate has won the election without winning the SC primary since 1980, so a lot of people look at SC as a (the?) predictor. It's the first Southern state in the GOP primaries and as such is theoretically a measure for how the South will go. So, in that theory, SC tells us who will be the ultimate GOP nominee.

That having been said, 1980 wasn't really all that long ago, and the apportionment of delegates is different this year, taking away "weight" from early states, so that "predictive" effect is diminished at least somewhat. How much is anyone's guess.


My guess is that if Romney carries SC and at least makes a strong showing in Florida, then it's probably over and everything from Super Tuesday onward is merely going through the motions. If, however, the challengers manage to upset Romney in SC and Florida, then I think this race goes right through Super Tuesday at the minimum. My gut tells me that we'll have, at best, a three-man race coming out of Florida. The rest are going to be running out, if not already out of money at the end of Florida, and the money is definitely going to start flowing away from those who haven't put up a good showing at that point.

[Odysseus]

Just for curiosity sake, what happens if Newt does win South Carolina? Does this prolong the nomination process or simply forestall it for Mitt?

If Newt wins, then he becomes the main alternative to Romney. As others drop out, he'll pick up more support. Also, since the Republican delegates are awarded proportionally, rather than winner take all, it also means that it will take a lot longer to acquire the delegates necessary to secure the nomination. The longer the conservative base remains divided, the better that is for Romney.

The Republican Party shits a collective brick because that means the Bain attack worked ..... on Republicans voting in the primary and that means they are truly boned if they don't put a lid on this apostasy fast.

Yes, Romney's record is business is much more of a liability than Obama's record as a community organizer.

[Arroyo_Doble]

Yes, Romney's record is business is much more of a liability than Obama's record as a community organizer.

I was not making a value judgement on the issue of Romney's tenure at Bain; he did what he was supposed to do and made as good a return on invested capital as he was able. I was making a comment on what happens if the attack is successful.