Thread: Poll: Newt Surging in South Carolina

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  1. #1 Poll: Newt Surging in South Carolina 
    Administrator SaintLouieWoman's Avatar
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    Townhall sent out the results of the latest Insider Advantage poll. They seem to be pushing both Santorum and Gingrich---the anything but Mitt strategy.

    Townhall

    Poll: Gingrich Surging in South Carolina
    Wednesday, January 11, 2012 10:45 PM

    The InsiderAdvantage poll of South Carolina likely Republican primary voters shows Newt Gingrich surging, coming within a statistical tie of Mitt Romney.

    The poll of 726 registered voters was completed Wednesday night and offered the following results:

    Romney -- 23 percent
    Gingrich -- 21 percent
    Santorum -- 14 percent
    Paul -- 13 percent
    Huntsman -- 7 percent
    Perry -- 5 percent

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  2. #2  
    Zoomie djones520's Avatar
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    This could be interesting.
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    Power CUer noonwitch's Avatar
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    Is it an open primary? If it is, watch for a write-in campaign by dems crossing over and voting for Stephen Colbert, who is joking about it but not exactly discouraging it.


    Not that it would accomplish anything.
     

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    Senior Member Molon Labe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by noonwitch View Post
    Is it an open primary? If it is, watch for a write-in campaign by dems crossing over and voting for Stephen Colbert, who is joking about it but not exactly discouraging it.


    Not that it would accomplish anything.
    Colbert is pulling in more votes than Rick Perry BTW...

    5% to 4% I believe.
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    Just for curiosity sake, what happens if Newt does win South Carolina? Does this prolong the nomination process or simply forestall it for Mitt?
     

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    Senior Member Molon Labe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sgrooms View Post
    Just for curiosity sake, what happens if Newt does win South Carolina? Does this prolong the nomination process or simply forestall it for Mitt?
    Nothing's over yet. Mitt doesn't have this wrapped up till way later. Newt is in the game, but no money. Paul has lot's of money and says he's going the distance....han't won a primary yet though.

    It is my opinion...but based on what you are asking it will prolong Mitt because Newt cannot win the GOP nomination. Too much baggage.
    Gun Control: The theory that a woman found dead in an alley, raped and strangled with her panty hose, is somehow morally superior to a woman explaining to police how her attacker got that fatal bullet wound - Unknown


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  7. #7  
    Senior Member Arroyo_Doble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sgrooms View Post
    Just for curiosity sake, what happens if Newt does win South Carolina?
    The Republican Party shits a collective brick because that means the Bain attack worked ..... on Republicans voting in the primary and that means they are truly boned if they don't put a lid on this apostasy fast.
     

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    Quote Originally Posted by sgrooms View Post
    Just for curiosity sake, what happens if Newt does win South Carolina? Does this prolong the nomination process or simply forestall it for Mitt?
    Couple of different ways to look at it:

    No GOP candidate has won the election without winning the SC primary since 1980, so a lot of people look at SC as a (the?) predictor. It's the first Southern state in the GOP primaries and as such is theoretically a measure for how the South will go. So, in that theory, SC tells us who will be the ultimate GOP nominee.

    That having been said, 1980 wasn't really all that long ago, and the apportionment of delegates is different this year, taking away "weight" from early states, so that "predictive" effect is diminished at least somewhat. How much is anyone's guess.


    My guess is that if Romney carries SC and at least makes a strong showing in Florida, then it's probably over and everything from Super Tuesday onward is merely going through the motions. If, however, the challengers manage to upset Romney in SC and Florida, then I think this race goes right through Super Tuesday at the minimum. My gut tells me that we'll have, at best, a three-man race coming out of Florida. The rest are going to be running out, if not already out of money at the end of Florida, and the money is definitely going to start flowing away from those who haven't put up a good showing at that point.
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    LTC Member Odysseus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sgrooms View Post
    Just for curiosity sake, what happens if Newt does win South Carolina? Does this prolong the nomination process or simply forestall it for Mitt?
    If Newt wins, then he becomes the main alternative to Romney. As others drop out, he'll pick up more support. Also, since the Republican delegates are awarded proportionally, rather than winner take all, it also means that it will take a lot longer to acquire the delegates necessary to secure the nomination. The longer the conservative base remains divided, the better that is for Romney.
    Quote Originally Posted by Arroyo_Doble View Post
    The Republican Party shits a collective brick because that means the Bain attack worked ..... on Republicans voting in the primary and that means they are truly boned if they don't put a lid on this apostasy fast.
    Yes, Romney's record is business is much more of a liability than Obama's record as a community organizer.
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  10. #10  
    Senior Member Arroyo_Doble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Odysseus View Post

    Yes, Romney's record is business is much more of a liability than Obama's record as a community organizer.
    I was not making a value judgement on the issue of Romney's tenure at Bain; he did what he was supposed to do and made as good a return on invested capital as he was able. I was making a comment on what happens if the attack is successful.
     

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