Hamas/Iran Split

[Odysseus]

From KGS Nightwatch:

Israel-Iran-Hamas: A member of Hamas' political bureau in Gaza City said that Hamas will not be a part of a war between Israel and Iran. The member said the group would not launch rockets into Israel at Tehran's request in response to a strike on its nuclear sites.

Comment: This confirms the report of a strategic shift in favor of Sunni Arab causes. Last week Hamas announced it would support the Sunni opposition in Syria. Today's announcement is consistent with that position. This is tonight's good news because it means Israel will not have to fight on three fronts - Gaza, southern Lebanon and against Syria-Iran. This is a setback for Iran.

Hamas was formed by the Muslim Brotherhood, and has always been a Salafist group. It was willing to spend Iranian money and pitch Iranian ordnance at Israel, and Iran didn't particularly care who did the shooting, as long as the Israelis were the targets, but in a Sunni/Shia infight, they're going to side with their own.

[DumbAss Tanker]

I'm sure Hezbollah will be glad to take up the slack, but still if Fatah is also of the same mind, has to be a bit of good news for the southern Israelis. I wonder if any of the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank have managed to put two and two together about what would happen to them if Iran was able to deliver a couple of nukes into central Israel.

[Odysseus]

I'm sure Hezbollah will be glad to take up the slack, but still if Fatah is also of the same mind, has to be a bit of good news for the southern Israelis. I wonder if any of the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank have managed to put two and two together about what would happen to them if Iran was able to deliver a couple of nukes into central Israel.

Some have, but the vast majority of the Palestinians are so wrapped up in their hatred of Israel that they probably don't care. What's interesting, though is that Hamas' leadership has figured out that if Iran does start tossing nukes, they do not want to be on the receiving end of Israel's retaliatory strike. They know that their missiles come from Iran, and they know that the Israelis know it. I suspect that this is part of the logic behind their announcement, to ensure that Israel knows that they will not be a staging area for an Iranian nuke, and to distance themselves from Iran in the event that Israel decides to take out the threat.