FIRST THOUGHTS: THE MAP 50 DAYS OUT
Posted: Monday, September 15, 2008 9:23 AM
by Mark Murray
Filed Under: First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
*** The map 50 days out: The Palin bounce has erased Obama's lead in the national polls, and it has now cut into his electoral-vote advantage, according to NBC’s latest map. Obama holds a 233-227 edge here, down from his 228-200 advantage from last week. The biggest changes: We moved Florida -- with its 27 electoral votes -- from Toss-up to Lean McCain, and New Mexico from Toss-up to Lean Obama. We also shifted Oregon and Washington from Likely Obama to Lean Obama, as well as Alaska, Georgia, North Dakota and South Dakota from Lean McCain to Likely McCain. The good news for McCain is that the map looks better for him than at any point so far in this race, and many of those red states that looked like opportunities for Obama (AK, GA, IN) look to be longer shots for him. The bad news for McCain is that given the wave his campaign has been riding from the Palin bounce, is this as good as it gets? If he isn’t leading in some states now, he might not ever lead in them. Bottom line: You'll know the map is starting to move in one direction or the other if either Pennsylvania or Florida moves back into Toss-up before Election Day.
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd discusses the Sarah Palin affect on the NBC electoral vote map.
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT (172 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: IA, MN, NM OR, PA, WA (61 votes)
Toss-up: CO, MI, NV, NH, OH, VA, WI (78 votes)
Lean McCain: FL, IN, MO, MT, NC (67 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AK, AZ, AR, GA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (160 votes)