#1 Palin bounce erodes Obama's electoral map advantage09-15-2008, 05:15 PM
FIRST THOUGHTS: THE MAP 50 DAYS OUT
Posted: Monday, September 15, 2008 9:23 AM
by Mark Murray
Filed Under: First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
*** The map 50 days out: The Palin bounce has erased Obama's lead in the national polls, and it has now cut into his electoral-vote advantage, according to NBC’s latest map. Obama holds a 233-227 edge here, down from his 228-200 advantage from last week. The biggest changes: We moved Florida -- with its 27 electoral votes -- from Toss-up to Lean McCain, and New Mexico from Toss-up to Lean Obama. We also shifted Oregon and Washington from Likely Obama to Lean Obama, as well as Alaska, Georgia, North Dakota and South Dakota from Lean McCain to Likely McCain. The good news for McCain is that the map looks better for him than at any point so far in this race, and many of those red states that looked like opportunities for Obama (AK, GA, IN) look to be longer shots for him. The bad news for McCain is that given the wave his campaign has been riding from the Palin bounce, is this as good as it gets? If he isn’t leading in some states now, he might not ever lead in them. Bottom line: You'll know the map is starting to move in one direction or the other if either Pennsylvania or Florida moves back into Toss-up before Election Day.
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd discusses the Sarah Palin affect on the NBC electoral vote map.
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT (172 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: IA, MN, NM OR, PA, WA (61 votes)
Toss-up: CO, MI, NV, NH, OH, VA, WI (78 votes)
Lean McCain: FL, IN, MO, MT, NC (67 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AK, AZ, AR, GA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (160 votes)Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery.
09-15-2008, 05:23 PM
You didn't watch the video, did you?This is bigger than presidential politics. This is a battle for America.
EyelidsGuest09-15-2008, 05:26 PM
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09-15-2008, 06:03 PM
electoral college numbers 227-207, with 104 toss-ups. That's the inverse of where the polling was before the conventions, but what's really amazing is that if you look at the historical tracking, you see that Obama began to tank before the Republican convention but after the Democratic convention. In other words, he had a negative bounce. People tuned in to his act and didn't like what they saw. But, even more telling is the closure of the generic congressional ballot. Democrats were ahead by as much as 20% at one point, but that's down to 4% and the momentum is against them. By the election, you could see Republicans making modest gains in the house and senate.
Get ready for eight more years in the wilderness.--Odysseus
Sic Hacer Pace, Para Bellum.
Before you can do things for people, you must be the kind of man who can get things done. But to get things done, you must love the doing, not the people!
09-15-2008, 06:14 PM
That came from NBC, EH?:
Musta' killed 'em to have to admit it!
:DIf leftists didn't have double standards, they'd have no standards at all.
09-15-2008, 10:02 PM
People are not buying the myth that is the m0ssiah anymore.Stand up for what is right, even if you have to stand alone.
09-15-2008, 10:38 PM
Keep spending, Obama! You're going to need everything you've got to cover for your doubletalk and your inability to be coherent without the aid of a teleprompter!
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