90,000,000 Americans have given up looking for work

[Janice]

The arbitrary reductions in the labor force are how they keep the U3 number down.

And dont forget the number of jobs "available" universe. As in 2 million employers have simply gone out of business since 0bama was immaculated. With a shrinking "jobs universe" one can argue the unemployment rate is down when it is in fact exactly the opposite.

[Starbuck]

......There was a report I read (economic opinion piece I could find if you like ... but it was opinion) that stated our problem in the near future will be a shrinking labor force.......

Actually, that is an item I have some interest in, if you could find it.

I have written previously about the problem China has created with their one-child policy, and most experts now see that China has created a pig-through-the-python kind of slow, irreversible disaster in the making. At some point - not too far out, either - China's population will suddenly begin to decrease.
That has already happened in Russia, where the population peaked at 148 million about 15 years ago, is now at 142 million and is predicted to be 111 million by 2050. And they can't reverse it; the people simply won't go that direction.
And in Europe there is not a single country with a birth rate of above 2.0, which is the birth rate necessary for a population to grow. Add to that the increased death rate for us Baby Boomers (not an American phenomenon) and the population will begin to decrease very soon.

The lack of jobs were are now experiencing may very well be replaced by a lack of labor at some point in the future, but for now I think it is important that Executive (Talkin' about you, Barry) and Legislative branches get busy and pass legislation, reduce expenditures, and take whatever action they can to make it happen.
I'll even go a bit further: I'll say that there is no reason to do anything - anything at all! - that is not intended to create jobs in America or decrease the expense of governing.

[Arroyo_Doble]

Actually, that is an item I have some interest in, if you could find it.

I have written previously about the problem China has created with their one-child policy, and most experts now see that China has created a pig-through-the-python kind of slow, irreversible disaster in the making. At some point - not too far out, either - China's population will suddenly begin to decrease.
That has already happened in Russia, where the population peaked at 148 million about 15 years ago, is now at 142 million and is predicted to be 111 million by 2050. And they can't reverse it; the people simply won't go that direction.
And in Europe there is not a single country with a birth rate of above 2.0, which is the birth rate necessary for a population to grow. Add to that the increased death rate for us Baby Boomers (not an American phenomenon) and the population will begin to decrease very soon.

The lack of jobs were are now experiencing may very well be replaced by a lack of labor at some point in the future, but for now I think it is important that Executive (Talkin' about you, Barry) and Legislative branches get busy and pass legislation, reduce expenditures, and take whatever action they can to make it happen.
I'll even go a bit further: I'll say that there is no reason to do anything - anything at all! - that is not intended to create jobs in America or decrease the expense of governing.

The latest reading on weekly jobless claims showed a drop of 5,000 to 348,000. This brought the 4-week average down a touch to 355,000; the lowest level since March 2008.

Regardless of recent improvements, our 8.3% unemployment rate is stuck near the highest levels seen since the dark days of the early 1980's. And if you ask ten people to name the biggest worry in today's economy, most will say high unemployment.

According to Conor Sen of Minaynville.com, the country's worries may be overstated. He says we're less than a decade away from the biggest challenge not being too few jobs for American workers, but rather a workforce too small to fill the demand.

"Ten years ago we saw for every new retiree there were ten new workers in the work force," Sen tells me in the attached video. "Ten years from now we're going to see the opposite; we're going to see ten retirees for every new worker."

As a function of simple math Sen concludes the unemployment picture is apt to improve "much faster than people think."

The natural push back on Sen's theory is the inability of U.S. corporations to create jobs domestically in the face of cheaper labor available overseas. Sen says those issues are taking care of themselves as well.

"The U.S. workforce is the most productive in the world and our productivity rate continues to improve. At the same time wages in China, partially due to the depreciating dollar, have been skyrocketing over the past few years." As a result, according to Sen, "our manufacturing workers are becoming much more competitive in the world markets."

The Link

[Odysseus]

I'll even go a bit further: I'll say that there is no reason to do anything - anything at all! - that is not intended to create jobs in America or decrease the expense of governing.

I wouldn't go that far. Countries that are declining tend to lash out in their death spirals, especially if they see a way to extort what they need from neighboring states. This is North Korea's MO and has been for decades. Also, there are countries whose populations aren't declining, and they tend to be cauldrons of instability, such as Yemen, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, etc. These countries will be exporting their children, just as the British and French did during the European colonial period, with the same intent, but much less benign methods. We will need to maintain our defense capabilities and work to reverse the tide of demographic collapse. The former will cost money, the latter will actually save it, by removing many of the social programs that we currently fund that destroy families.

[Janice]

The natural push back on Sen's theory is the inability of U.S. corporations to create jobs domestically in the face of cheaper labor available overseas. Sen says those issues are taking care of themselves as well.

The Link

Im just guessing... but I wouldnt be surprised if having the highest corp tax rate in the world might have something to do with big business taking their business over seas to a friendlier work environment too.

After all... the old maxim applies now as much as it ever did. Perhaps even more:

The more you punish an activity, the less you are going to have of it.

And we now have a fed govt that is at war w/the private sector and relishes the opportunity to impede and/or punish success and/or prosperity at every turn imaginable. Nationwide brown outs and blackouts and a Chicago style ghetto on a national scale are just in birds eye view. We JUST NEED 4 MORE years.

[Starbuck]

I wouldn't go that far. Countries that are declining tend to lash out in their death spirals, especially if they see a way to extort what they need from neighboring states. This is North Korea's MO and has been for decades. Also, there are countries whose populations aren't declining, and they tend to be cauldrons of instability, such as Yemen, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, etc. These countries will be exporting their children, just as the British and French did during the European colonial period, with the same intent, but much less benign methods. We will need to maintain our defense capabilities and work to reverse the tide of demographic collapse. The former will cost money, the latter will actually save it, by removing many of the social programs that we currently fund that destroy families.

When you think about it national defense is one of the truest, most intelligent forms of stimulus spending in that jobs are created both in the uniformed ranks and in the industries that support them. I don't believe we will be able to reverse our coming population decline because population decline is so complex. But, as you say, we always need to be ready to defend ourselves.

[txradioguy]

Not too hard to figure out. Shrink the amount of jobs in the workforce universe...the percentage of those unemployed looks much smaller.

If the 2 million jobs that have magically disappeared over the last couple years were still factored in the unemployment rate would be almost 11%.

[Articulate_Ape]

They can cook the books all they want, but it won't matter because such accounting legerdemain always gets trumped by the "plague factor". The government can claim that there is no plague, or it isn't that bad, but when everyone knows ten or more people who have it or have died of it, everyone knows it's a plague.

[Odysseus]

When you think about it national defense is one of the truest, most intelligent forms of stimulus spending in that jobs are created both in the uniformed ranks and in the industries that support them. I don't believe we will be able to reverse our coming population decline because population decline is so complex. But, as you say, we always need to be ready to defend ourselves.

More importantly, it's unique in terms of government spending, because of the competition factor. Most government programs exist in a competitive vaccuum, because they suppress private sector activities that could compete, and because if they fail, they can impose more taxes or other revenue enhancements to keep the program in business. The Post Office is a great example of this. But military technology is one of the few areas where there is competition, but it's not obvious, because the competition isn't just between contractors, but between nations. A failure to properly modernize, equip, train or sustain the armed forces results in the most glaring kind of failure, defeat in war. It's the most basic kind of competition, one that predates economic competition in markets. Tribes fought wars long before they traded goods. When a company fails, its competitors provide the same goods and services, or better them, but when a nation fails, it retreats from the world.

[Arroyo_Doble]

They can cook the books all they want .....

This is the second time in this thread I have seen something like that. Odie used the word "arbitrary."

Incredible claims demand incredible proof.