The economy has been a stake through McCain's heart.
Indiana is probably a tie right now, it's bouncing between Obama +3 and McCain +3 nearly poll-to-poll.On the strength of an abundance of state and national polling, Barack Obama has retaken the lead in our Electoral College projection. Our model now forecasts him to win the election 61.2 percent of the time; it also gives him a slight, half-point advantage in the popular vote. Yesterday, Obama was projected to win the Electoral College just 45 percent of the time, so this is a rather dramatic move upward.
The real tale will come at 2 PM ET when Gallup releases its daily tracking poll, if Obama builds on his already legit margin there its sending a pretty obvious message. What genuinely shocks me is how quickly Obama is transitioning a national lead into victories in state polling (IN is now up for grabs), it might be that Obama has better ground people or Palin's eroding favorability numbers are being slammed up against the wall.