Insight: GM's Volt - The ugly math of low sales, high costs

[m00]

True.....however the overriding problem with "electric cars" is twofold:

I think the real problem with the electric car is simply that our road infrastructure isn't built to handle it, and our energy distribution system isn't built to handle it. They have wireless chargers, for example. You could in theory build a city where buried underneath intersections there were inductive chargers. Only the free market will ever tell us whether in time something like this is a good idea (cost effective, demand). But I'm sure there's enough smart people in the world to make electric cars work if there was enough money there.

The problem is when the government gets involved, they can subsidize technology to get it to market, but it won't create demand for a product. If the government really wanted the electric car to work, it should have just said "we're looking to use electric cars for government employees in X agency as a pilot program. The car specs have Y requirements, and the contract is worth Z"... and obviously, it couldn't cost more than the existing gasoline fleet. Either a company would be able to fulfil the contract, or not. If the contract couldn't be fulfilled, then the electric car isn't ready to be made. But at least in this case, you're starting with the demand and not the supply.

[SarasotaRepub]

True.....however the overriding problem with "electric cars" is twofold:

1. It's old, old technology, and has been around in various forms since the last two decades of the ninteenth century, and has never been successful, even in the "horse and buggy" era, when distances travelled were tiny, and there were absolutely no standards for passenger impact protection and other safety factors adding additional weight to the vehicle.

2. Most importantly, you can't repeal the laws of Physics......it will always require "x" amount of electrical energy to move a vehicle with a mass of "y" pounds over a distance of "z" miles (ambient temperatures and road friction being a given constant). The storage "battery" has been around since the Babylonians invented it 5,000 years ago, and except for more efficient materials, it hasn't changed appreciably since......a "cell" is only capable of delivering 1.3 to 3.0 volts, and the current storage capacity is limited by size and weight.....you can build them larger, but all that accomplishes is that as that is done, they consume more of their own stored power moving the mass of the battery itself (and lengthen the recharge cycle), and there becomes a theoretical point where the two curves (range vs size/mass) intersect.......

With all of the components required to make a vehicle that meets safety (and other) standards, the minimum mass is about 1800 pounds, which creates a theoretical maximum range (under optimum conditions) of about 80 miles of flat road between charges. With a regenerative charging system (braking charging), you might under optimum conditions stretch that to 100 miles......sometimes......but under no conditions would it ever exceed this......ever......

Regardless of how exotic the materials used to manufacture the cells, the charging cycle remains long (relatively), and cannot be altered, as such, these will always be a limited-use type transportation......limited to short urban commutes, and "shopping cart" applications.......never a "mass-market" solution. The US is a vast country, and Americans travel over long distances, carrying (relatively) large loads of passengers and cargo. Electric vehicles will never be a solution for these driving patterns, and therefore will not be any more practical than they were in 1890.....

Back to the topic, I would be remiss if I didn't reinforce the fact that the "Volt" was never intended to be a production vehicle.......it was built by GM as a "concept car" for the New York and Detroit Auto Shows, and as such was NOT really anything more than an "idea" to attract the tree-huggers......it was only after the Obama administration saw it that it was forced into production and that was done in a slipshod manner, which has resulted in a myriad of problems and issues with its use in the marketplace.........regardless of which manufacturer makes them, they will never be a profit center, and sales will be small due to their limited application.

GM, Ford (with a Ranger pickup), and Chrysler all built limited runs of electric vehicles in the '90's and essentially gave/leased them away to various drivers (mostly in California), and after years of testing and research......abandoned them as impractical and unprofitable (especially GM, after their vehicles burned down several houses when their batteries overheated under charging).

Exotic designs of "hybrid" technology can and likely will be devised, but to be practical, American vehicles will always require a source of fuel to operate over long distances, and until someone manages to build a quantum generator, the least expensive and most practical source of that energy will, for the forseeable future be hydrocarbons........wishing isn't going to change this.......

.
doc

RACIS...I MEAN POWERIST!!!!!

[Rockntractor]

This is so fuelish!

[TVDOC]

I think the real problem with the electric car is simply that our road infrastructure isn't built to handle it, and our energy distribution system isn't built to handle it. They have wireless chargers, for example. You could in theory build a city where buried underneath intersections there were inductive chargers. Only the free market will ever tell us whether in time something like this is a good idea (cost effective, demand). But I'm sure there's enough smart people in the world to make electric cars work if there was enough money there.

The problem is when the government gets involved, they can subsidize technology to get it to market, but it won't create demand for a product. If the government really wanted the electric car to work, it should have just said "we're looking to use electric cars for government employees in X agency as a pilot program. The car specs have Y requirements, and the contract is worth Z"... and obviously, it couldn't cost more than the existing gasoline fleet. Either a company would be able to fulfil the contract, or not. If the contract couldn't be fulfilled, then the electric car isn't ready to be made. But at least in this case, you're starting with the demand and not the supply.

Sorry......those pesky laws of Physics again.......a cell will discharge under (50%) load 75 times faster than it can be recharged, either directly or inductively.....

Not to mention that the investment in the infrastructure that you propose would be vast.....it still wouldn't work.......as I stated earlier, the Laws of Physics can't be "repealed"......there is a reason that the old trollycars of the 30's - 50's dissappeared, and the infrastructure that powered them was already built.

You sound like Obama......."the only reason that we can't get this to work is we haven't spent enough taxpayer money on it........."

As an aside, the US government has......so far......been the largest single purchaser of "Volts"........and they can't get them to work in their applications either, so most of them sit in garages connected to their chargers, gathering dust......

doc

[wasp69]

Exotic designs of "hybrid" technology can and likely will be devised, but to be practical, American vehicles will always require a source of fuel to operate over long distances, and until someone manages to build a quantum generator, the least expensive and most practical source of that energy will, for the forseeable future be hydrocarbons........wishing isn't going to change this.......

.
doc

Amen, doc. There is a solution, a very workable "right now" type of solution, that could be done if it were tried. Considering our locomotives use generators and batteries, it would not be such a leap to have these types of vehicles ready for production and distributed in relatively short order.

No massive changes to our current infrastructure, no need for massive amounts of taxpayer money to be siphoned to unionistas, an immediate drop in the fuel consumption of the average user.

Considering the fact that no one in the current admin has even thought of this tells me that they're not really serious. Not like I didn't know that already...

[m00]

You sound like Obama......."the only reason that we can't get this to work is we haven't spent enough taxpayer money on it........."doc

I'm astounded that was your takeaway. Please show me where I said "the only reason that we can't get this to work is we haven't spent enough taxpayer money on it........." since you're quoting me as saying something I clearly haven't.

[m00]

there is a reason that the old trollycars of the 30's - 50's dissappeared, and the infrastructure that powered them was already built.

The politics of US Automotive Industry (GM, mainly), US Steel and Oil. And other factors.

[wasp69]

The politics of US Automotive Industry (GM, mainly), US Steel and Oil. And other factors.

Post war prosperity, cheap cars and even cheaper gasoline are a matter of politics?

[SarasotaRepub]

Who on this planet wouldn't be in favor of a reasonably priced, clean, powered car???

Electric, hydrogen, solar, I don't care. The problem is, right now in time, it doesn't exist.

Someone invent a room temp super conductor and we'd be in Bidness...

[TVDOC]

The politics of US Automotive Industry (GM, mainly), US Steel and Oil. And other factors.

Actually no......they disappeared because operating a diesel-powered bus was far more practical and vastly less expensive (no rails, no overhead power transmission system, only a fraction of the maintenance required).

How about this for a solution........if exploited, the US has over 400 years of proven reserves of hydrocarbon fuels available (so far, and that number increases every day)........why don't we USE IT!! We don't have to spend a dime of taxpayer money......private capital will do it for us........all we have to do is drive in to the station and fill the tank........

doc