Gallupís Internals and Our Nationís
Over at Wizbang, a fascinating look inside the raw numbers of the lastest Gallup Organizationís polls.
Skip the opening paragraphs about ďtrolls,Ē and dive into the numbers he dissects. If you look at the raw numbers, McCain is significantly ahead of Obama and his support is steady or growing in all categories. Meanwhile, Obama is steady or falling in all categories.
But Gallup reports Obama up over McCain by two points. Why? The weighting of votersĖbasically a guestimate about voter turnoutĖhas changed over at Gallup, favoring Republicans during their convention but now favoring the Democrats. All polling organization weight the numbers. The question is how.
Now, here is where it gets fascinating. Wizbang re-weights the numbers to match ratios established by exit polls (polls of voters exiting the voting booth) in the past few presidential contests. Result: Obama 39%, McCain 45%.
Could Wizbang be right? If voter turnout doesnít change substantially, yes, he could be right. Read his post and decide for yourself.
One hypothesis I would add: Republican and Republican-leaning independents are now favoring McCain because they took his pick of Palin as a signal that he will govern as a conservative, not a RINO.