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  1. #1 Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS: Obama Is Widening His Lead in Ohio (+10) and Florida (+9) 
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    Well, would you look at that! Obama is ahead and they are celebrating. Of course they had to oversample Democrats by 9 percentage points in order to ensure that they could celebrate.


    TroyD (1,365 posts)

    Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS: Obama Is Widening His Lead in Ohio (+10) and Florida (+9)

    OHIO - Obama +10

    Obama - 53

    Romney - 43

    -------

    FLORIDA - Obama +9

    Obama - 53

    Romney - 44

    ---------

    September 26, 2012

    COLUMBUS, Ohio — For weeks, Republicans in Ohio have been watching with worry that the state’s vital 18 electoral votes were trending away from Mitt Romney. The anxiety has been similar in Florida, where Republicans are concerned that President Obama is gaining the upper hand in the fight for the state’s 29 electoral votes.

    Those fears are affirmed in the findings of the latest Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News polls of likely voters in both states, which show that Mr. Obama has widened his lead over Mr. Romney and is outperforming him on nearly every major campaign issue, even though about half said they were disappointed in Mr. Obama’s presidency.

    The polls, along with interviews with supporters and advisers in the nation’s two largest battleground states, lay bare an increasingly urgent challenge facing Mr. Romney as he prepares for his next chance to move the race in his favor, at the first debate with Mr. Obama next week. Mr. Romney’s burden is no longer to win over undecided voters, but also to woo back the voters who seem to be growing a little comfortable with the idea of a second term for Mr. Obama.

    SNIP

    The New York Times, in collaboration with Quinnipiac University and CBS News, is tracking the presidential race with recurring polls in six states. In Ohio — which no Republican has won the presidency without — Mr. Obama is leading Mr. Romney 53 percent to 43 percent in the poll. In Florida, the president leads Mr. Romney 53 to 44 percent in the poll.

    More:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/26/us...d-florida.html

    ====================
    SOH0912 Demographics
    ====================

    From September 18 - 24, 2012 Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,162 likely voters in Ohio with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.


    PARTY IDENTIFICATION - Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Republican,
    a Democrat, an Independent, or what?

    LIKELY VOTERS........
    Weighted UnWeighted
    Percent Frequency
    PARTY IDENTIFICATION
    Republican 26% 326
    Democrat 35 387
    Independent 35 397
    Other/DK/NA 4 52


    From September 18 - 24, 2012 Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,196 likely voters in Florida with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

    PARTY IDENTIFICATION - Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Republican,
    a Democrat, an Independent, or what?

    LIKELY VOTERS........
    Weighted UnWeighted
    Percent Frequency
    PARTY IDENTIFICATION
    Republican 27% 344
    Democrat 36 417
    Independent 33 387
    Other/DK/NA 4 48

    longship (14,103 posts)

    2. If this holds up, Romney is toast.

    And bear in mind, approaching a 10 point spread means that it is outside the error bars. Plus, over 50 percent is the magic number. That means that there are likely insufficient undecideds to flip the poll, all other things being equal.

    With these two states going this way, I do not see a path to victory for Governor Romney. He is doomed.
    TroyD (1,366 posts)

    5. It almost seems to good to be true to me

    Some people are wondering if they have oversampled Democrats. I hope not.

    I do notice that even Rasmussen had PA at Obama +12 this past week, so it's interesting that both Ras & Quinnipiac agree on that state .

    The OH & FL numbers are higher than other pollsters though, so I'll be interested to see whether other polls pick up the same numbers later this week.
    tclambert (4,849 posts)

    6. Romney's investors are going to be really angry.

    Time for him to arrange a golden parachute deal with his campaign finances.
    NCLefty (28 posts)

    7. Obama's gap is so wide,

    he's shovel-ready! *BOOM!*
    Last edited by Carol; 09-26-2012 at 10:04 AM.
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