Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS: Obama Is Widening His Lead in Ohio (+10) and Florida (+9)

[Carol]

link

Well, would you look at that! Obama is ahead and they are celebrating. Of course they had to oversample Democrats by 9 percentage points in order to ensure that they could celebrate.

TroyD (1,365 posts)

Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS: Obama Is Widening His Lead in Ohio (+10) and Florida (+9)

OHIO - Obama +10

Obama - 53

Romney - 43

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FLORIDA - Obama +9

Obama - 53

Romney - 44

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September 26, 2012

COLUMBUS, Ohio — For weeks, Republicans in Ohio have been watching with worry that the state’s vital 18 electoral votes were trending away from Mitt Romney. The anxiety has been similar in Florida, where Republicans are concerned that President Obama is gaining the upper hand in the fight for the state’s 29 electoral votes.

Those fears are affirmed in the findings of the latest Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News polls of likely voters in both states, which show that Mr. Obama has widened his lead over Mr. Romney and is outperforming him on nearly every major campaign issue, even though about half said they were disappointed in Mr. Obama’s presidency.

The polls, along with interviews with supporters and advisers in the nation’s two largest battleground states, lay bare an increasingly urgent challenge facing Mr. Romney as he prepares for his next chance to move the race in his favor, at the first debate with Mr. Obama next week. Mr. Romney’s burden is no longer to win over undecided voters, but also to woo back the voters who seem to be growing a little comfortable with the idea of a second term for Mr. Obama.

SNIP

The New York Times, in collaboration with Quinnipiac University and CBS News, is tracking the presidential race with recurring polls in six states. In Ohio — which no Republican has won the presidency without — Mr. Obama is leading Mr. Romney 53 percent to 43 percent in the poll. In Florida, the president leads Mr. Romney 53 to 44 percent in the poll.

More:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/26/us...d-florida.html

====================
SOH0912 Demographics
====================

From September 18 - 24, 2012 Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,162 likely voters in Ohio with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.


PARTY IDENTIFICATION - Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Republican,
a Democrat, an Independent, or what?

LIKELY VOTERS........
Weighted UnWeighted
Percent Frequency
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Republican 26% 326
Democrat 35 387
Independent 35 397
Other/DK/NA 4 52


From September 18 - 24, 2012 Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,196 likely voters in Florida with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

PARTY IDENTIFICATION - Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Republican,
a Democrat, an Independent, or what?

LIKELY VOTERS........
Weighted UnWeighted
Percent Frequency
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Republican 27% 344
Democrat 36 417
Independent 33 387
Other/DK/NA 4 48

longship (14,103 posts)

2. If this holds up, Romney is toast.

And bear in mind, approaching a 10 point spread means that it is outside the error bars. Plus, over 50 percent is the magic number. That means that there are likely insufficient undecideds to flip the poll, all other things being equal.

With these two states going this way, I do not see a path to victory for Governor Romney. He is doomed.

TroyD (1,366 posts)

5. It almost seems to good to be true to me

Some people are wondering if they have oversampled Democrats. I hope not.

I do notice that even Rasmussen had PA at Obama +12 this past week, so it's interesting that both Ras & Quinnipiac agree on that state .

The OH & FL numbers are higher than other pollsters though, so I'll be interested to see whether other polls pick up the same numbers later this week.

tclambert (4,849 posts)

6. Romney's investors are going to be really angry.

Time for him to arrange a golden parachute deal with his campaign finances.

NCLefty (28 posts)

7. Obama's gap is so wide,

he's shovel-ready! *BOOM!*

[FlaGator]

link

Well, would you look at that! Obama is ahead and they are celebrating. Of course they had to oversample Democrats by 9 percentage points in order to ensure that they could celebrate.





====================
SOH0912 Demographics
====================

From September 18 - 24, 2012 Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,162 likely voters in Ohio with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.


PARTY IDENTIFICATION - Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Republican,
a Democrat, an Independent, or what?

LIKELY VOTERS........
Weighted UnWeighted
Percent Frequency
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Republican 26% 326
Democrat 35 387
Independent 35 397
Other/DK/NA 4 52


From September 18 - 24, 2012 Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,196 likely voters in Florida with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

PARTY IDENTIFICATION - Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Republican,
a Democrat, an Independent, or what?

LIKELY VOTERS........
Weighted UnWeighted
Percent Frequency
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Republican 27% 344
Democrat 36 417
Independent 33 387
Other/DK/NA 4 48

It is an attempt by the media to create a feeling of "what's the use of voting" among republican. It is also gives the DUers an opportunity to scream "stolen election" when Obama loses. After all those polls showed the O leading by 9 points.

[SarasotaRepub]

It is an attempt by the media to create a feeling of "what's the use of voting" among republican. It is also gives the DUers an opportunity to scream "stolen election" when Obama loses. After all those polls showed the O leading by 9 points.

Then the DUmmies will be sorry they don't have TruthIsAll to esplain it to them...

[FlaGator]

Here is a list of the different polling organizations and how accurate they were in the 2008 election. CBS who was involved in this poll is listed near the bottom in terms of accuracy. The New York Times and Quinnipiac don't even make the list.

1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
5. ARG (10/25-27)*
6. CNN (10/30-11/1)
6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
10. FOX (11/1-2)
11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
14. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
15. Marist College (11/3)
16. CBS (10/31-11/2)
17. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
19. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
20. Newsweek (10/22-23)

Source is here

[Rockntractor]

Here is a list of the different polling organizations and how accurate they were in the 2008 election. CBS who was involved in this poll is listed near the bottom in terms of accuracy. The New York Times and Quinnipiac don't even make the list.

1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
5. ARG (10/25-27)*
6. CNN (10/30-11/1)
6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
10. FOX (11/1-2)
11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
14. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
15. Marist College (11/3)
16. CBS (10/31-11/2)
17. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
19. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
20. Newsweek (10/22-23)

Source is here

What happened to Zogby this year?

[FlaGator]

What happened to Zogby this year?

I don't know. Until you mentioned it I didn't every realize they weren't on the list. Perhaps I'll look for more sources.

[Rockntractor]

I don't know. Until you mentioned it I didn't every realize they weren't on the list. Perhaps I'll look for more sources.

The last I have heard from Zogby was during the primary's.

[Bailey]

I cant wait till this damn election is over one way or the other. The suspense is killing me.

[Rockntractor]

I cant wait till this damn election is over one way or the other. The suspense is killing me.

If Obama is to win I would rather time stood still, I have no doubt as to what a second term would bring.

[Bailey]

If Obama is to win I would rather time stood still, I have no doubt as to what a second term would bring.

We could survive him, I have no doubts