Any one notice the liberal rag, "The New Yorker" Cover this month?
HEHE
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10-05-2012, 10:40 PM
Any one notice the liberal rag, "The New Yorker" Cover this month?
HEHE
10-05-2012, 10:52 PM
Stolen from Kyle Ricky aka LukeEDay
10-05-2012, 11:40 PM
When you go to facebook, before you sign in, this is on the page:
10-06-2012, 12:55 AM
I know a number of people who took out second mortgages or lines of credit on primary residences, but most often it was for improvements to their primary investment with an eye on selling it fairly soon. Others bought a rental or speculation property. A lot of people got caught with bad timing.Originally Posted by Hawkgirl
When the bottom fell out here, the first ones to go down were actually investors who were carrying a handful to dozens of properties. I was in an auction circuit, where one investor from Kentucky had something like thirty properties from expensive condos to shabby fourplexes. Another investor with an Indian or Paki name, had some fifteen high end properties. These were people who had previously been considered real estate machines, who paid for a lot of handymen and installers and yard services etc...
The truth is that a lot of your primary residence foreclosures are still in the shadow inventory.
But J.T. Smith, chief investment officer of the boutique firm Aristar Funding Group in Florida, said the fundamentals are still off. The indices he said are not capturing a true and accurate picture of the estimated 4 million foreclosed homes being held off the market. At a clip of 500,000 REOs sold per year, he estimates a national housing bottom in the second half of 2014 and for Florida to lag roughly 12 months after that.
The Federal Housing Administration delinquencies are going back up, and he pointed out the 11.4 million homeowners estimated to owe more on their loan than their home is worth is barely budging.
"If pricing was bottoming we would see this number begin to move and it hasn't, the only movement has been through modifications, short sales, and foreclosures," Smith said.
http://www.housingwire.com/news/shad...till-years-out
10-06-2012, 02:03 AM
Nova the statement in red should show to anyone with limited knowledge of the real estate mkt & how it works that J.T. Smith is talking out his backside for reasons known only to him. The market value of homes not currently for sale do not fluctuate willy nilly to market trends. Those homes change in value due to appraisals required for refinancing to cash out or make/already made appreciable improvements
Also who holds a foreclosed property off the mkt ? Banks & mortgage companies sure as hell don't because to them and govt authorities those properties are a liability not an asset,undervalued or otherwise. People making a claim of foreclosed Properties being purposely "held off the market" don't know what the hell they are talking about.
The ominous "shadow Inventory" is nothing more than foreclosed properties currently on the mkt but as of yet unsold. No nefarious activity involved.
10-07-2012, 12:51 PM
I don't know that anyone is suggesting that the practice is nefarious. Lenders are waiting long periods of time between default and foreclosure. In some cases they appear to think it's advantageous to have an owner occupant living in the house and maintaining it rather than another deteriorating property with a For Sale sign out front. My mother's neighbor hasn't made a mortgage payment in three years, and she's not using a cracker jack lawyer to fight foreclosure, the lender simply doesn't seem interested in taking the house at this time. Another neighbor cuts the grass so the neighborhood won't suffer.
There are a wide range of estimates of shadow inventory. A common measure are loans that are either in the foreclosure process or that are three months or more delinquent. These are mortgages that are among the most likely to ultimately become bank-owned properties.
Barclays Capital estimates that at the end of May there were around 1.8 million mortgages in the foreclosure process and another 1.45 million where borrowers have missed at least three payments. That puts the total number of properties that could be repossessed and resold by banks at around 3.25 million mortgages.
If those homes hit the market all at once, housing would be in deep trouble. Last year, for example, there were 4.4 million sales of previously owned homes. The figure is still higher than any time before June 2009.
But it is down from a peak of 4.25 million in February 2010. And unless mortgage delinquencies begin to accelerate sharply, the shadow inventory won’t be growing. Barclays estimates that at the current rate, this figure could fall to around 2.4 million loans.
Perhaps you have been listening to this guy:
“The concept of a huge shadow inventory is preposterous,” says Christopher Thornberg, a housing economist with Beacon Economics in Los Angeles. “The number of mortgages in distress is way down from one year ago. It’s clear there are fewer distressed properties out there.”
Housing analyst Ivy Zelman has a slightly larger estimate of shadow inventory—around 6.3 million homes at the end of last year—that includes more newly delinquent mortgages and potential re-defaults. She says that in a normal market, there’s a comparable shadow inventory of 2.9 million homes. So the key figure—the excess level above the historical trend—is around 3.4 million homes.
http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/20...y-as-it-looks/
Trust Forbes?
What Housing Recovery? Distressed Sales Still High, Shadow Inventory Massive
http://www.forbes.com/sites/afonteve...ntory-massive/
Housing markets seemed to have turned a corner, with Tuesday’s Case-Shiller data adding to the optimism. Home prices have risen for a second consecutive month for the first time since the summer of 2010, but much of this is a consequence of the falling percentage of distressed sales, while prices are still more than 31% of their peaks and may take years to recover. With 11.4 million, or 23.7%, of all residential properties with a mortgage under water, and a shadow inventory worth $246 billion, according to CoreLogic, a true housing recovery is far away.
As mentioned previously, the most recent data on underwater mortgages shows that nearly a fourth of all residential properties with a mortgage are underwater. That’s 11.4 million as of the end of the first quarter. At the same time, financial institutions including big banks with exposure to the mortgage business like Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Citigroup are sitting on a shadow inventory of 1.5 million units, or four months supply. Worth $246 billion, the shadow inventory will certainly weigh on lending and economic conditions going forward.
10-07-2012, 02:02 PM
10-07-2012, 02:11 PM
EXCELLENT!!!
Empty chair, empty suit...
He's just empty and has always been.
10-07-2012, 02:19 PM
I don't recall saying anything about people taking out second mortgages to help people. I did reference people taking out payday loans and car title loans to get them through some emergency. Where did I say something about people taking second mortgages
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