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In the case of the Confederacy, it would have to have played out to see who would get to keep the traditional short form of "American". It would be confusing for both citizens of the Union and citizens of a free and independent post-war CSA to call themselves Americans, as it would now if the Canadians and Mexicans insisted on being called Americans.
However if Texas and Texas alone secedes, then it would be safe to guess that they will be called Texans. They seem quite proud of that designation, to a degree simply not found in most other states.
I'm a South Carolinian but I'm also an American. Same with Californian, Floridian and even Texan whether they are part of the United States or not.
As for seeing how things would have played out if Southern secession were successful it's my opinion that the north would have rapidly fallen into a communist dictatorship and would simply have referred to themselves as "comrade".
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