An Election Poll that really matters

[Molon Labe]

I'd argue, if you want to track who is most likely to win, then take a look at intrade. They do a remakable job of doing getting pretty accurate results and they did fantastic during the Primaries.

The theory: People don't like to lose their money and make decsions based on how to get more. And there is more going on here than opinion polling. Think of it as the invisible hand.

Today it's Obama 290 to Romney 248. But it can change.

http://electoralmap.net/2012/intrade.php

Oh and It was VERY accurate in 2008.


Actual

365 to 173




Intrade
364 -174

[SarasotaRepub]

Just seeing the dreaded Red X Box Molon...

[Odysseus]

And you notice that the Libertarian candidate is polling zero?

[Molon Labe]

And you notice that the Libertarian candidate is polling zero?

Good observation; however, the point of this thread is to "predict" the outcome of the election. When the MSM or Gallup says this guy or that guy is in the lead, I'm looking at THIS poll in the OP for a closer representation of the truth.

[txradioguy]

And you notice that the Libertarian candidate is polling zero?

[Odysseus]

Good observation; however, the point of this thread is to "predict" the outcome of the election. When the MSM or Gallup says this guy or that guy is in the lead, I'm looking at THIS poll in the OP for a closer representation of the truth.

Intrade and Rasmussen/Gallup have one thing in common, which is that they are putting their money where their mouths are, while the MSM polls do not. Rasmussen and Gallup are paid for their accuracy, and they cannot permit their credibility to be compromised by partisanship. The MSM polls reflect their biases, as well as their skewed sampling results (a similar thing happened in 1980, when the pollsters applied 1976 turnout models, putting Carter 8 points ahead prior to the eleciton). However, all of these polls feed into the RealClearPolitics average, which has become the standard for most observers, with the result being that the media polls skew the overall estimates. This is significant, because of how it impacts the Intrade results. Intrade is basically a betting pool, but it is no more accurate than the assumptions of the bettors. If the bettors are going on the same assumptions as the media, because the polls are skewed, then they are going to reflect those skewed assumptions in the oddsmaking. Also, how far in advance did the Intrade numbers predict the Obama victory in 2008?

[Molon Labe]

Also, how far in advance did the Intrade numbers predict the Obama victory in 2008?

It can be conducted up to the day of the election. The polling is constant though with trades being made based on any number of events. It's not going to just "shift" one way or the other tremendously as it's based on more gradual trends.


Ant that's what's unique about this.... is that so much more things are taken into account because people have $$$ to lose or win based on the outcome.

For instance it was 290 for Obama before the debate last night and is now 281. Seems Romney did a little better last night. A slight change in Nevada, Colorado, and Iowa. However Romney lost ground in Virginia.

I think people should pay attention to it and discount it at their own peril.

[AmPat]

Good observation; however, the point of this thread is to "predict" the outcome of the election. When the MSM or Gallup says this guy or that guy is in the lead, I'm looking at THIS poll in the OP for a closer representation of the truth.

I just took this poll. Here are the results:

If the election were held today, who would you vote for?

---

Barack Obama - Joe Biden
191,471(26%)

Mitt Romney - Paul Ryan
522,084(72%)

Other
5,206(0%)



[TR]
[TD]Are you more likely to vote for Mitt Romney because Paul Ryan is his VP?

---

More Likely
174,168(24%)

Less Likely
62,935(8%)

Doesn't change my opinion of Romney
472,547(66%)



[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Which party should run congress?

---

Republican
517,575(73%)

Democratic
190,161(26%)


0(0%)



[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]To close the federal deficit, Congress and the President should

---

Raise taxes
57,131(8%)

Cut spending
193,472(27%)

Cut taxes and cut spending
431,859(60%)

Raise taxes and increase spending
26,624(3%)



[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Do you favor significant cuts to Medicare?

---

Yes, cut Medicare significantly
66,608(9%)

No, don't cut Medicare significantly
637,536(90%)


[/TD]
[/TR]


Read more on Newsmax.com: SurveyResults
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[Molon Labe]

I just took this poll. Here are the results:

I'm sure a poll over at Huffington Post would look similar for Obama.

[Molon Labe]

ROMNEY 261 OBAMA 277

Closing the gap today.

wonder what is happening?