An Election Poll that really matters

**hampshirebrit** · 11-03-2012, 11:33 AM

I've been following Intrade for a couple of years or so. You are right, they call it right more often than not. It's an interesting trading model. I was going to put some $$$ into it for this election and related events, but didn't have time due to other commitments.

I would have made a big pile of dosh. Today, it says:

... pretty much how I figured how things were going to play out, at least as goes the presidency.

**Rockntractor** · 11-03-2012, 12:02 PM

It ain't over till it's over. Yogi Berra

**hampshirebrit** · 11-03-2012, 12:42 PM

Originally Posted by Rockntractor

It ain't over till it's over. Yogi Berra

True dat. Some Intrade markets can be very volatile all the way to the wire.

Still, I'm thinking that if the GOP had someone running better than Mittens, then this would be going our way more than it seems to be right now.

**Rockntractor** · 11-03-2012, 12:48 PM

Originally Posted by hampshirebrit

True dat. Some Intrade markets can be very volatile all the way to the wire.

Still, I'm thinking that if the GOP had someone running better than Mittens, then this would be going our way more than it seems to be right now.

We sure tried, but in fairness the more facts that come out about Mittens the more likeable he becomes, he is a man of character and at the very least ten steps up from McCain.

**Rockntractor** · 11-03-2012, 12:54 PM

**hampshirebrit** · 11-03-2012, 01:09 PM

Originally Posted by Rockntractor

We sure tried, but in fairness the more facts that come out about Mittens the more likeable he becomes, he is a man of character and at the very least ten steps up from McCain.

Yep, I guess. Anything has to better.
Just wish Christie would have run, then it would be a done deal by now.

**Rockntractor** · 11-03-2012, 01:12 PM

Originally Posted by hampshirebrit

Yep, I guess. Anything has to better.
Just wish Christie would have run, then it would be a done deal by now.

Yeah, the donkey would have been turned around.

**Starbuck** · 11-03-2012, 01:21 PM

Originally Posted by Molon Labe

;532082............Oh and It was VERY accurate in 2008..............

BRRRRRPPPP! Fail. May have been "accurate in '08" simply by reading the polls, which turned out to be pretty close. But the record in other areas gets them taken out of the line up:

Based in Dublin, Intrade has been around for more than a dozen years, taking bets on everything from who Mitt Romney will tap as his vice-presidential nominee (the current favorite is Rob Portman)...............
failed to predict the dramatic outcome of the health-care law, forecasting a 75% chance the justices would overturn the law’s individual mandate......

Read more: http://www.foxbusiness.com/investing...#ixzz2BB1rWWYr

Intrade doesn't matter any more than anyone else. And less than most.

**Rockntractor** · 11-04-2012, 06:58 PM

Funny thing, have you ever noticed with these Paulbots when Ron Paul had 5% at most of public support behind him he should have won and the election was being stolen from him yet when Romney is in a tie with polling weighted heavily to the Democrats favor they say there is no way he can win?

**Molon Labe** · 11-05-2012, 10:33 AM

Originally Posted by Starbuck

BRRRRRPPPP! Fail. May have been "accurate in '08" simply by reading the polls, which turned out to be pretty close. But the record in other areas gets them taken out of the line up:

Intrade doesn't matter any more than anyone else. And less than most.

let's see. I think it will be interesting. Maybe it's off, but I'm thinking it will predict the winner.

Today

ROMNEY 235 OBAMA 303 ✓

I think that's a little high for Obama....probably somewhere around 270 something