Page 1 of 5 123 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 49
  1. #1 An Election Poll that really matters 
    Senior Member Molon Labe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Jihad Me At Hello
    Posts
    4,771
    I'd argue, if you want to track who is most likely to win, then take a look at intrade. They do a remakable job of doing getting pretty accurate results and they did fantastic during the Primaries.

    The theory: People don't like to lose their money and make decsions based on how to get more. And there is more going on here than opinion polling. Think of it as the invisible hand.

    Today it's Obama 290 to Romney 248. But it can change.

    http://electoralmap.net/2012/intrade.php

    Oh and It was VERY accurate in 2008.


    Actual

    365 to 173




    Intrade
    364 -174

    Last edited by Molon Labe; 10-16-2012 at 03:43 PM.
    Gun Control: The theory that a woman found dead in an alley, raped and strangled with her panty hose, is somehow morally superior to a woman explaining to police how her attacker got that fatal bullet wound - Unknown


    The problem is Empty People, Not Loaded Guns - Linda Schrock Taylor
     

  2. #2  
    eeeevil Sith Admin SarasotaRepub's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    Sunny,FL
    Posts
    43,601
    Just seeing the dreaded Red X Box Molon...
    May the FORCE be with you!
     

  3. #3  
    LTC Member Odysseus's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    FT Belvoir, VA
    Posts
    15,638
    And you notice that the Libertarian candidate is polling zero?
    --Odysseus
    Sic Hacer Pace, Para Bellum.

    Before you can do things for people, you must be the kind of man who can get things done. But to get things done, you must love the doing, not the people!
     

  4. #4  
    Senior Member Molon Labe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Jihad Me At Hello
    Posts
    4,771
    Quote Originally Posted by Odysseus View Post
    And you notice that the Libertarian candidate is polling zero?
    Good observation; however, the point of this thread is to "predict" the outcome of the election. When the MSM or Gallup says this guy or that guy is in the lead, I'm looking at THIS poll in the OP for a closer representation of the truth.
    Gun Control: The theory that a woman found dead in an alley, raped and strangled with her panty hose, is somehow morally superior to a woman explaining to police how her attacker got that fatal bullet wound - Unknown


    The problem is Empty People, Not Loaded Guns - Linda Schrock Taylor
     

  5. #5  
    Senior Member txradioguy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Bavaria
    Posts
    8,150
    Quote Originally Posted by Odysseus View Post
    And you notice that the Libertarian candidate is polling zero?
    In Memory Of My Friend 1st Sgt. Tim Millsap A Co, 70th Eng. Bn. 3rd Bde 1st AD...K.I.A. 25 April 2005

    Liberalism Is The Philosophy Of The Stupid

    To Achieve Ordered Liberty You Must Have Moral Order As Well

    The libs/dems of today are the Quislings of former years. The cowards who would vote a fraud into office in exchange for handouts from the devil.
     

  6. #6  
    LTC Member Odysseus's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    FT Belvoir, VA
    Posts
    15,638
    Quote Originally Posted by Molon Labe View Post
    Good observation; however, the point of this thread is to "predict" the outcome of the election. When the MSM or Gallup says this guy or that guy is in the lead, I'm looking at THIS poll in the OP for a closer representation of the truth.
    Intrade and Rasmussen/Gallup have one thing in common, which is that they are putting their money where their mouths are, while the MSM polls do not. Rasmussen and Gallup are paid for their accuracy, and they cannot permit their credibility to be compromised by partisanship. The MSM polls reflect their biases, as well as their skewed sampling results (a similar thing happened in 1980, when the pollsters applied 1976 turnout models, putting Carter 8 points ahead prior to the eleciton). However, all of these polls feed into the RealClearPolitics average, which has become the standard for most observers, with the result being that the media polls skew the overall estimates. This is significant, because of how it impacts the Intrade results. Intrade is basically a betting pool, but it is no more accurate than the assumptions of the bettors. If the bettors are going on the same assumptions as the media, because the polls are skewed, then they are going to reflect those skewed assumptions in the oddsmaking. Also, how far in advance did the Intrade numbers predict the Obama victory in 2008?
    --Odysseus
    Sic Hacer Pace, Para Bellum.

    Before you can do things for people, you must be the kind of man who can get things done. But to get things done, you must love the doing, not the people!
     

  7. #7  
    Senior Member Molon Labe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Jihad Me At Hello
    Posts
    4,771
    Quote Originally Posted by Odysseus View Post
    Also, how far in advance did the Intrade numbers predict the Obama victory in 2008?
    It can be conducted up to the day of the election. The polling is constant though with trades being made based on any number of events. It's not going to just "shift" one way or the other tremendously as it's based on more gradual trends.


    Ant that's what's unique about this.... is that so much more things are taken into account because people have $$$ to lose or win based on the outcome.

    For instance it was 290 for Obama before the debate last night and is now 281. Seems Romney did a little better last night. A slight change in Nevada, Colorado, and Iowa. However Romney lost ground in Virginia.

    I think people should pay attention to it and discount it at their own peril.
    Gun Control: The theory that a woman found dead in an alley, raped and strangled with her panty hose, is somehow morally superior to a woman explaining to police how her attacker got that fatal bullet wound - Unknown


    The problem is Empty People, Not Loaded Guns - Linda Schrock Taylor
     

  8. #8  
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Location
    Woodland Park, Colorado, United States
    Posts
    8,563
    Quote Originally Posted by Molon Labe View Post
    Good observation; however, the point of this thread is to "predict" the outcome of the election. When the MSM or Gallup says this guy or that guy is in the lead, I'm looking at THIS poll in the OP for a closer representation of the truth.
    I just took this poll. Here are the results:

    If the election were held today, who would you vote for?
    Barack Obama - Joe Biden
    191,471(26%)

    Mitt Romney - Paul Ryan
    522,084(72%)

    Other
    5,206(0%)



    [TR]
    [TD]Are you more likely to vote for Mitt Romney because Paul Ryan is his VP?
    More Likely
    174,168(24%)

    Less Likely
    62,935(8%)

    Doesn't change my opinion of Romney
    472,547(66%)



    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]Which party should run congress?
    Republican
    517,575(73%)

    Democratic
    190,161(26%)


    0(0%)



    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]To close the federal deficit, Congress and the President should
    Raise taxes
    57,131(8%)

    Cut spending
    193,472(27%)

    Cut taxes and cut spending
    431,859(60%)

    Raise taxes and increase spending
    26,624(3%)



    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]Do you favor significant cuts to Medicare?
    Yes, cut Medicare significantly
    66,608(9%)

    No, don't cut Medicare significantly
    637,536(90%)


    [/TD]
    [/TR]


    Read more on Newsmax.com: SurveyResults
    Important: Do You Support Pres. Obama's Re-Election? Vote Here Now!
    Education without values, as useful as it is, seems rather to make man a more clever devil.
    C. S. Lewis
    Do not ever say that the desire to "do good" by force is a good motive. Neither power-lust nor stupidity are good motives. (Are you listening Barry)?:mad:
    Ayn Rand
     

  9. #9  
    Senior Member Molon Labe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Jihad Me At Hello
    Posts
    4,771
    Quote Originally Posted by AmPat View Post
    I just took this poll. Here are the results:
    I'm sure a poll over at Huffington Post would look similar for Obama.
    Gun Control: The theory that a woman found dead in an alley, raped and strangled with her panty hose, is somehow morally superior to a woman explaining to police how her attacker got that fatal bullet wound - Unknown


    The problem is Empty People, Not Loaded Guns - Linda Schrock Taylor
     

  10. #10  
    Senior Member Molon Labe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Jihad Me At Hello
    Posts
    4,771
    ROMNEY 261 OBAMA 277

    Closing the gap today.

    wonder what is happening?
    Gun Control: The theory that a woman found dead in an alley, raped and strangled with her panty hose, is somehow morally superior to a woman explaining to police how her attacker got that fatal bullet wound - Unknown


    The problem is Empty People, Not Loaded Guns - Linda Schrock Taylor
     

Bookmarks
Bookmarks
Posting Permissions
  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •