#1 Is this too paranoid? Foreign results of O's reelection11-07-2012, 03:59 PM
Watching inmates sleep and fart all night long, with the knowledge that Obama had been reelected, my mind wandered far and wide. One track I went down, Israel, realizing that they are an island now, launches it's attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities. Or possibly Iran, seeing Israel alone in a raft, launches a first strike. Either way, the resultant attacks and retaliation turn the Middle East into glass, destroying the flow of that black gold we and so much of the rest of the world are dependent on and the flow that has the primary effect on the price of that oil. There aren't enough windmills and solar panels and Volts to go around here, and no way to quickly get our wells and refineries up to full bore, due to regulations, taxation, and out of date equipment. That which hits the fan is not evenly distributed, gas becomes double digits per gallon, electricity generated by oil and coal becomes equally out of reach. Massive collapse here, likely in Europe as well.
In all seriousness of discussion, is any of this, primarily the military strikes, possibility of nuclear strikes or retaliation, a cutting off of the prime factor in oil prices? Or is too much Coast to Coast AM and Alex Jones creeping into my thought patterns?
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11-07-2012, 04:42 PM
Iran will continue to work towards getting a nuke, and with the US neutered, the other regional players will feel the need to get their own. The Saudis have the money to buy them from the Pakistanis, and the Turks can certainly spend some of their defense budget on them. Egypt probably will not be able to set up their own program (their economy is a basket case), but they will be able to provide the manpower for the post-nuclear jihadi hordes, and don't underestimate the solidarity that Pakistan's jihadis will feel for their Egyptian brothers. They may give them technology simply out of the desire to ensure as many Islamic nuclear powers as possible.
The question is whether the first nuclear exchange will be between Iran and Israel, or between one of the Sunni states and Iran, but either way, adding more nuclear weapons to a region of the world whose single most influential export is fanatical Seventh Century metaphysics, is probably about the worst possible outcome to our foreign policy.--Odysseus
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