North Korea: What happens if Kim Jong-un acts on his threats?

**Rockntractor** · 03-30-2013, 11:45 PM

In the event that the 'bellicose rhetoric' of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un turns into something more serious, the opening hours of conflict could be 'pretty ugly,' defense analysts warn.

By Anna Mulrine, Staff writer / March 29, 2013
Veteran North Korea watchers, citing what they see as increasingly troubling signs coming from the dictatorial regime, are voicing concerns that its new young leader, Kim Jong-un, could do something ill-advised, even start a war.
On Friday North Korea renewed what the U.S. has condemned as its “bellicose rhetoric,” saying Kim had ordered the nation’s missile forces to prepare to strike the United States and South Korea.

In response to the prospect of North Korea following through on this and other marginally less dire threats, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said Thursday that the US military “will unequivocally defend, and [is] unequivocally committed to the alliance with, South Korea.”

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But if hostilities were in fact to erupt, how might they play out?

Some former US Special Operations Forces and longtime Korea defense analysts have their own thoughts on what an “unequivocal” US military response could look like, including how US troops would be deployed in the event of a lethal first strike on US and allied military forces by North Korea – precisely the sort of move Mr. Kim has been threatening to make.
Read More>http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Militar...-entryNineItem

Sonnabend · 03-31-2013, 06:24 PM

I will let our military experts handle the more complex issues and logistics / tactics etc...but if the NK's come across the 38th, it will get very bloody, very fast. Superiot firepower or no, Kim's armies, air force and artillery can inflict a great deal of damage in a short time. Even if the US, KATUSA and other troops react fast, which they will, we're lookiing at a huge bodycount.

5400 tanks
1 million men and women in uniform

Yeah their technology is out of date, their planes etc the same, all he has to do is throw them across the parallel and by sheer force of numbers, the DMZ will be overrun very quickly. After that they'll be into Sth Korea, so now the nuclear option takes a new outlook: will the US dare use nukes on SK soil?

Would Kim do this with the delivery systems we know he has?

Will the Chinese get involved....will they have any choice, being presented with a fait accompli by their Korean brethren?

**fullboat1010** · 03-31-2013, 07:06 PM

"At the same time, North Korea could begin “swarming” its sizable contingent of 600,000 Special Operations commandos, adds Mr. Howard, now the director of the Terrorism, Research, and Education Program at the Monterey Institute of International Studies. "

I wonder how talented these 600,000 Special Ops commandos really are? By this I wonder if they mean Marines. In any case they of course would have no chance against us. I think Kim Jong-un is a pretty smart fella and I don't believe he is going to strike first. I think he is just trying to provoke us into attacking and in return saying that they are the victim. It is a tough place for our military leaders to be in.

Sonnabend · 03-31-2013, 07:16 PM

I wonder how talented these 600,000 Special Ops commandos really are? By this I wonder if they mean Marines. In any case they of course would have no chance against us.

The DMZ is set up to deal with an attack of six or more divisions at once? All they have to do is blow past the DMZ and dig in, set up a beachhead inside SK territory..or bypass the DMZ completely.

How much warning did the Sk get last time?

I think Kim Jong-un is a pretty smart fella and I don't believe he is going to strike first. I think he is just trying to provoke us into attacking and in return saying that they are the victim. It is a tough place for our military leaders to be in.

In all truth I do not recommend you underestimate him. Don't get cocky.

**DumbAss Tanker** · 03-31-2013, 08:02 PM

It would be very messy for awhile, but there's a strong chance we'd be referring to him as "The late Kim Jong Un" pretty quickly, if he does.

ETA - when you are a country the size of DPRK and you have 600,000 "Special forces," they aren't that special. Given conditions in DPRK, they probably are extremely used to hardship and are no doubt some physically-tough little mofos who have been indoctrinated to the point of brainwashing, but even the toughest have a Hell of a time operating when the other side has relatively limitless resources, air and sea dominance, pervasive intelligence coverage from drones to satellites, and you are trying to "Liberate" a country whose populace has no interest whatsoever in the 'Benefits' you propose to bring them (Except, of course, for the ROK equivalent of DUers).

**Rockntractor** · 03-31-2013, 08:26 PM

Originally Posted by DumbAss Tanker

ETA - when you are a country the size of DPRK and you have 600,000 "Special forces," they aren't that special.

Special there means they get to eat the equivalent of generic dog food and don't have to eat tree bark and cockroach sammiches like the rest of the population.

**DumbAss Tanker** · 03-31-2013, 08:34 PM

Originally Posted by Rockntractor

Special there means they get to eat the equivalent of generic dog food and don't have to eat tree bark and cockroach sammiches like the rest of the population.

Yeah, I was inclined to throw in that it means they get three meals a day, but then I thought "Or maybe not."

Sonnabend · 03-31-2013, 10:18 PM

Rock: devils advocate: they bypass the DMZ and go for a full on all out attack in the first wave, committing maybe 200,000 men, infantry, tanks, aircraft and a massive artillery barrage. They get a beachhead then dig in.

How hard will it be to dislodge them?

The following day: a single nuke is detonated at a neutral location aka a demonstration strike: Kim say "leave troops alone or else"

What next.

DAT: Dont assume they are unable to follow up on their assault, and dont make the elementary mistake of underestimating the damage they can do. They can seize food and fuel on the way and at selected points...this will be a planned, coordinated and orchestrated offensive. This muddy, dismissive kind of thinking, DAT, isnt like you and certainly is unrealistic.

Yeah, I was inclined to throw in that it means they get three meals a day, but then I thought "Or maybe not."

..and if they are desperate, and starving...and armed....what kind of impact do you think they will have on those they invade and capture. Kim is getting, I believe, desperate...and he may not be interested in what he can negotiate for....maybe he has decided he will see what he can take and hold.

**Rockntractor** · 03-31-2013, 10:44 PM

Originally Posted by Sonnabend

..and if they are desperate, and starving...and armed....what kind of impact do you think they will have on those they invade and capture. Kim is getting, I believe, desperate...and he may not be interested in what he can negotiate for....maybe he has decided he will see what he can take and hold.

Good point, I don't know what resources they have but they have had a lot of years to store fuel and prepare, if they move I hope we don't play games with them and take chances.