SonnabendGuest04-01-2013, 12:18 AM
Does he have the forces to launch a full on assault. Yes.
Does he have the logistics to support lines of supply for an extended assault: Unknown
What is his primary objective if he DID invade: This is the kicker.
What is his main target - and if he is NOT able to maintain a prolonged assault, then it stands to reason he is after short term goals in the least possible time...which indicates to me (Im an untrained armchair tactician, I know, but this is a good guess) that whatever he is after if he invades, he has a good prospect (to him) of seizing and holding it for at least an appreciable length of time.
Get in fast, grab it, seize it, hold it.
He is well aware that a prolonged attack will eat his supplies and ammo at a logarithmic rate, and his generals know this too, so this points to a possible lightning attack using overwhelming force to seize and hold either a/ a beachhead he will dig in and fight for (this is bad as an entrenched enemy will be hard to dislodge) or b/ a specific objective that will be great value to his enemies, and may or may not be a hostage city / area which can then be used as a bargaining chip.
Thats where the demo nuke may be the key element: do as he says or the hostage gets it. Thats the nightmare scenario, especially if the zone is in Sth Korean territory.
C / he has to have at least one or more secondary objectives for the attack, and I am hazarding a guess that these will be bridgeheads he can use for supply, command and control.
I am guessing, but from a military point of view, if he gets into an extended slugfest he will lose overall, as the first Korean War will attest.
It is more than likely this is sabre rattling and he has an ulterior objective, aid, financing, food, supplies, easing of embargoes...but to me one thing is obvious. China will be drawn in whether they want to or not, and he may be looking to use them as leverage. A role the Chinese can do without.
I am in no delusion as to the failings and inadequacies of his forces, as compared to modern day armies and their technolology and air power. He knows it too. I am hoping I am wrong and this is all a bluff.
It would not be beyond him. My gut says there is more on the table.....just what, I am damned if I know.
And it is also possible that he isnt the one calling the shots.
SonnabendGuest04-01-2013, 12:36 AM
Add this: not a disclaimer just fact
I could be wrong about all of it.
We dont know.
04-01-2013, 12:44 AM
The Nork logistic structure is virtually nonexistent, Sonnabend. It's all teeth, no stomach. They would of course loot and destroy everything the ROK civilians have in the way of food, petrochemicals, booze, etc., and immediately start acting like a pack of rabid dogs. Their strategic objective is and always has been enforced unification on their terms, with Seoul being the keystone of everything (Which is, unfortunately, located pretty close to the 38th Parallel). There are some cultural peculiarities to Korea that make Seoul more than just a territorial or transportation nexus type of objective, as well as significant numbers of Commies, Leftists, and Unification-on-any-terms people who would not want to fight, and the ROK Army is not the formidable, implacable machine that it once was, thanks to the erosive effects of prosperity over the generations since their divisions fought in Viet Nam. Still, it's an open question as to whether the Nork forces will be able to maintain cohesion and discipline once they come face-to-face with the (Relatively) boundless material wealth of ordinary ROK citizens and find out they haven't been suffering under the yoke of oppression, patiently awaiting the day of liberation for the past half-century.
Personally, I'd expect the Nork army's behavior in the South to be something that would make the rapine and plunder of the 1st Byelorussian Front in Berlin look like a pack of Cub Scouts on a flag-planting trip to a military cemetery by comparison.
SonnabendGuest04-01-2013, 12:54 AM
DAT: The "hostage city scenario" - could this be what he is after? Given your assesment of their logistics (I concur btw) the short term objective would make the most sense. Short lines of supply means he "could" hold it..with his nuke as the sword and thread.
Shit: Wait...he cant be that stupid..is he thinking to co opt elements of the civilian population?
No..I dont think so. Cancel that.
Last edited by Sonnabend; 04-01-2013 at 01:02 AM.
SonnabendGuest04-01-2013, 01:04 AMClimb down off the roof, dude, they aren't going to get to Oz.
DAT this is a "what if" thread....all I had in mind is possible outcomes.
He is rattllng sabres and he is after food, aid and other supplies. Thats all he is really interested in, and my guess is seriously thats what this is, he is pushing China to back down and give him what he wants.
Last edited by Sonnabend; 04-01-2013 at 01:13 AM.
04-01-2013, 01:16 AM
It is somewhat reminiscent of the peculiar chain of ethnocentric thinking in both Washington and Tokyo that led to the Pacific War in 1941: The West assumed that an oil embargo would force Japan to abandon its vicious war of conquest in China; the Japanese, on the other hand, viewed the ultimatum of an oil embargo as a situation forcing them to seize the Dutch oil fields in the (Then-) Dutch East Indies in order to sustain a war for Chinese resources which they assumed to be indispensable to their national power...and seizing the Dutch territory meant war with Holland's allies of record, so planning for all-out attacks on those allies was immediately undertaken and then executed.
SonnabendGuest04-01-2013, 02:59 AM
If he is hoping for some kind of "fifth column" to support his efforts....he's even more deluded than I imagined.
The South Koreans live in a major technocracy..he has nothing to offer them. Nothing they'd want, in any road.
04-01-2013, 10:10 AM
I hope that the Chinese or someone talks some sense into the little fat boy. I doubt he can hit the US with any type of nuke, but he probably can hit Seoul with one.
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