04-01-2013, 10:42 AM
I don't believe that the North Koreans are serious about going over the DMZ right now. For one thing, they just held the Korean Workers' Party Central Committee Plenary Meeting in Pyongyang. If you are preparing for war, you don't centralize your leadership in one place and paint a big bullseye on it. The second reason is that, while the report of the meeting emphasized the North's commitment to nuclear advancement, it also covered a number of mundane tasks, such as promotions to vacancies within the party. The coverage of routine business implies a lessening of tensions and a return to business as usual. The analysts at KGS Nightwatch believe that North Korea's motive isn't an immediate war, so much as our recognition of the North as a nuclear power. North Korean threats require responses and contingency plans by the US and South Korea to fight a nuclear-armed North Korea. Even if the North lacks the capability, the threats demand some precautions by us, and these provide Kim Jong Un with de facto acceptance of North Korea as a nuclear power. Basically, they figured that the only way to force our acceptance of North Korea as a nuclear armed state was to threaten a nuclear war. It worked. The joint exercises were a good excuse for the saber-rattling, but the real indicator will be if the North retains the war footing through April, when the spring planting must begin if they are to have any harvest this year. If they don't plant, then they are serious about their endgame.
As for the North's capabilities regarding the DMZ, they have sufficient materiale and ordnance to level Seoul, but they cannot advance through the South, as the retaliatory strikes will destroy them. Their equipment is no match for what South Korea can bring to bear, and they lack the depth of logistics capabilities to sustain combat for more than a few days. The North can start an ugly war, but it cannot win one, and they know this. China is the North's only regional ally, and it will not support any action that impacts the stability of the region (the last thing that China wants is increased American military activity that close to home), and their other allies (Iran, Venezuela, Syria) are in no position to provide them with any aid. This is all bluster.--Odysseus
Sic Hacer Pace, Para Bellum.
Before you can do things for people, you must be the kind of man who can get things done. But to get things done, you must love the doing, not the people!
SonnabendGuest04-01-2013, 10:17 PMThe joint exercises were a good excuse for the saber-rattling, but the real indicator will be if the North retains the war footing through April, when the spring planting must begin if they are to have any harvest this year. If they don't plant, then they are serious about their endgame.
#23 Border Patrol04-01-2013, 10:21 PM
China mobilizing troops, jets near Korea
BY: Bill Gertz
April 1, 2013 2:30 pm
China has placed military forces on heightened alert in the northeastern part of the country as tensions mount on the Korean peninsula following recent threats by Pyongyang to attack, U.S. officials said.
Reports from the region reveal the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) recently increased its military posture in response to the heightened tensions, specifically North Korea’s declaration of a “state of war” and threats to conduct missile attacks against the United States and South Korea.
According to the officials, the PLA has stepped up military mobilization in the border region with North Korea since mid-March, including troop movements and warplane activity.
China’s navy also conducted live-firing naval drills by warships in the Yellow Sea that were set to end Monday near the Korean peninsula, in apparent support of North Korea, which was angered by ongoing U.S.-South Korean military drills that are set to continue throughout April.
North Korea, meanwhile, is mobilizing missile forces, including road-mobile short- and medium-range missiles, according to officials familiar with satellite imagery of missile bases.
The missile activity is believed to be North Korea’s response to the ongoing U.S.-South Korean military exercises that last week included highly publicized flights by two B-2 strategic nuclear bombers near North Korean territory as part of annual military exercises.
China needs to decide weather they want to continue making money selling products to us or feeding and protecting a welfare state.
SonnabendGuest04-01-2013, 10:25 PM
Rock: this looks like a show of force, and from what I see in the article, this is a defensive posture. i'd say they are not so quietly telling Kim to back off.
No overt or aggressive show of hardware per se. I'd call this a reasoned and tactical response on a "threat / counterforce" basis. Someone in Beijing is keeping a cool head.
Not sure if the live fires are in "defence of North Korea", more as they may be a demonstration of readiness. To both sides.
04-02-2013, 02:40 AM
A what if thread, huh?
What if the American Commander in Chief guts the military, doesn't send needed supplies and/or equipment... Look at what Zero has done...
What if....?Government is not the solution to our problem, government is the problem.
We could say they are spending like drunken sailors. That would be unfair to drunken sailors, they're spending their OWN money.
SonnabendGuest04-02-2013, 02:57 AM
I think Odysseus has called it. And he'd know far better than I ever would.
04-02-2013, 12:03 PM
- Join Date
- May 2008
I just can't believe George W. Bush turned out to be right.
I keep thinking if N. Korea strikes, we need to take them by the throat.
That said, I do think the hypocritical China can talk sense into them.
- Join Date
- May 2008
SonnabendGuest04-02-2013, 10:15 PMI just can't believe George W. Bush turned out to be right
By the way Lanie, it's PRESIDENT Bush to you.
The guy is far smarter than you or your ilk ever gave him credit for, and whilst you and your ilk jeered and abused him, history and the truth quietly waited in the wings, to walk out when the time was right and show you for the traitorous, America hating, slogan screeching nag hag that you have always been. Don't get too comfortable, and dont leave the table,.there are several more helpings of crow to be served, and I will be pleased to see each and every one of them shoved down your throat.
04-02-2013, 10:40 PM
I don't know why people are worried, they are just doing this to get obama to give them food and oil, etc. They know he is weak and a little blustering will get them all they want.We're from Philadelphia, We Fight- Chip Kelly
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