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  1. #21  
    Zoomie djones520's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DumbAss Tanker View Post
    I'm not so sure. Israel's penetration is limited to quick in-and-outs and highly-choreographed special operations to go after deep, very high-value targets, it's not routine freedom of maneuver. While the Syrian Air Force isn't much of a threat, the ADA system is, and the Russians have done their best to make it better and more resilient after each one of those Israeli penetrations. If the Syrians succeed in taking out a single B2, they're going to look like the winners.
    Cruise missiles will be the first thing in, and while your dead on about their ADA, they won't survive well enough to be a significant threat to our B-2's after 40 cruise missiles do their thing. I wonder if our cruise missiles have HARM capabilities...
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  2. #22  
    Senior Member txradioguy's Avatar
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    While the Syrian Air Force isn't much of a threat, the ADA system is,
    Correct me if I'm wrong but did the IAF fly through it undetected a couple years ago?

    I'm guessing our pilots have studied that mission to see how the defenses can be exploited to get in and out undetected just like they did.
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  3. #23  
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    Quote Originally Posted by txradioguy View Post
    Correct me if I'm wrong but did the IAF fly through it undetected a couple years ago?

    I'm guessing our pilots have studied that mission to see how the defenses can be exploited to get in and out undetected just like they did.
    They have on several occasions, I think your remembering their raid on Syria's nuclear reactor though.

    The F-16C's at Aviano specialize in SEAD missions, which is how we'd deal with a lot of their ADA.
    In most sports, cold-cocking an opposing player repeatedly in the face with a series of gigantic Slovakian uppercuts would get you a multi-game suspension without pay.

    In hockey, it means you have to sit in the penalty box for five minutes.
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  4. #24  
    Senior Member DumbAss Tanker's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by djones520 View Post
    Cruise missiles will be the first thing in, and while your dead on about their ADA, they won't survive well enough to be a significant threat to our B-2's after 40 cruise missiles do their thing. I wonder if our cruise missiles have HARM capabilities...
    That was a cute new trick 20 years ago, but threats are adaptive, and at some point Chinese and Russian export ECCM TTP and technology will be able to mitigate it, whether it's there already and whether they want to show their cards if it is are matters yet to be determined.

    Of course the Syrians could just decide to move as much target WMD material around as possible, leave the ADA net mostly off-line to avoid losing too much of its heavier elements to radiation-homers, and just absorb the damage, with lots of pictures of the collateral damage and dead civilians the next day (Although so far OUR press has ignored any dead civilians from the 'Wrong side' as thoroughly as they did in Libya, still you can bet the Arabic and Farsi press won't).
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    I've been removed from ACC for the last 5 years, so I'm not as boned up on this topic as I was back in the day, but I do know that our F-16's are pretty much designed to handle the suppression of air defenses, Russian backed or not. I'd have to imagine that we're in close talks with Israel getting as much info as we can regarding where their defenses are, how they've gotten around them, and best methods to destroy them.

    This is if we actually bother sending aircraft in. It's possible that we could just make a $400,000,000 statement with 4 destroyers worth of Tomahawks.
    In most sports, cold-cocking an opposing player repeatedly in the face with a series of gigantic Slovakian uppercuts would get you a multi-game suspension without pay.

    In hockey, it means you have to sit in the penalty box for five minutes.
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  6. #26  
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    Quote Originally Posted by djones520 View Post
    I've been removed from ACC for the last 5 years, so I'm not as boned up on this topic as I was back in the day, but I do know that our F-16's are pretty much designed to handle the suppression of air defenses, Russian backed or not. I'd have to imagine that we're in close talks with Israel getting as much info as we can regarding where their defenses are, how they've gotten around them, and best methods to destroy them.

    This is if we actually bother sending aircraft in. It's possible that we could just make a $400,000,000 statement with 4 destroyers worth of Tomahawks.
    What do you think of Iran's hint at attacking Israel? Typical Islamic bluster or desperate act to inflame the citizens of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, et al by drawing the nation of Israel into the conflict (Obama is no George HW Bush and Israel would retaliate)?
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  7. #27  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arroyo_Doble View Post
    What do you think of Iran's hint at attacking Israel? Typical Islamic bluster or desperate act to inflame the citizens of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, et al by drawing the nation of Israel into the conflict (Obama is no George HW Bush and Israel would retaliate)?
    I don't think Iran has the chutzpah to engage in open hostilities with Israel. That's just me though.
    In most sports, cold-cocking an opposing player repeatedly in the face with a series of gigantic Slovakian uppercuts would get you a multi-game suspension without pay.

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  8. #28  
    Senior Member txradioguy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arroyo_Doble View Post
    What do you think of Iran's hint at attacking Israel? Typical Islamic bluster or desperate act to inflame the citizens of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, et al by drawing the nation of Israel into the conflict (Obama is no George HW Bush and Israel would retaliate)?
    It's a bluff. A very old and tired one. Saddam threatened the same thing back in 1990...you see how that worked out for him.
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  9. #29  
    Senior Member DumbAss Tanker's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by djones520 View Post
    I've been removed from ACC for the last 5 years, so I'm not as boned up on this topic as I was back in the day, but I do know that our F-16's are pretty much designed to handle the suppression of air defenses, Russian backed or not. I'd have to imagine that we're in close talks with Israel getting as much info as we can regarding where their defenses are, how they've gotten around them, and best methods to destroy them.

    This is if we actually bother sending aircraft in. It's possible that we could just make a $400,000,000 statement with 4 destroyers worth of Tomahawks.
    Five years is a lifetime ECM/ECCM, but I doubt if either the Russkiis or Chinese want to put their shiniest new toys on display just to make Obama look like a dope. He can do a pretty damn' good job of that without any additional help from them, after all.

    I expect the strike will be just cruise missiles, possibly some of them with refinements beyond GPS like terminal active guidance or radiation homing after hitting a designated GPS release point (Just speculation, I have no actual information on that, but the technical capability certainly exists to field it operationally). I doubt if Obama wants the spectacle that would ensue if we lost any actual aircrew to either air defense or operational mischance, though, particularly if they survived being captured by the people they were trying to kill on the ground - which is always pretty iffy when the bomb-droppers fall into the hands of the targets.
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  10. #30  
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    Quote Originally Posted by DumbAss Tanker View Post
    They are all valid considerations, I expect we just weight them somewhat differently. And it's true that compared to Afghanistan, almost nothing is as logistically-expensive, we can essentially do anything anywhere as long as we're willing to spend enough money and effort to do it. I see Turkey's and Jordan's support as one of those things that may cause more problems in the long run than they fix in the present, much like the Kaiser's spymasters ferreting Lenin into Russia. Especially so in the case of Turkey, which proved a totally-unreliable asset in OIF despite wanting to be pro-Western on alternate weeks, and which still faces a long-term problem with a growing Islamist movement that isn't going to be helped at all by assisting the West against other Muslims, even ones they actually hate...because it will ultimately go against us as the imams and mullahs relate it to their target population. After all, what got Osama thinking about the West as his main enemy, after being a fellow-traveler against the Soviets in the Afghan insurgency, was the fact that in attacking Saddam in Gulf I, we based ourselves in Saudi Arabia, desecrating (As he saw it) Holy ground. I know you're fully aware of how Black September came about, so I won't belabor that with regard to Jordan, but suffice to say there are going to be huge unintended consequences, mostly bad, down the road for any regime that physically supports us in directly attacking Syria, and so ultimately for our regional interests and relations. It will be one of those situations like telling a friend his wife is cheating on him...you (We) will eventually end up being the bad guy in the eyes of the one you are trying to help.

    Don't even get me started on Libya and what a pointless, press-driven, President-in-domestic-trouble, unnecessary bloodbath that was...much like Klintoon's Kosovo Killzone, there were two equally-vile and mutually-atrocity-prone groups, but since the misery of the side getting its ass kicked draws cable news like shit draws flies, the press and Kennedy-era relics like McCain were all for throwing the fight the other way, ending up with just as many dead as there would have been if we had left them to their own devices, just different ones.

    In the case of Kosovo, a lot of the pressure was driven by the Serbs having proven to be such immense assholes in a sea of assholes during the Yugoslavian Civil War, and our intervention in Kosovo was a belated attempt to look like we did something positive beyond barely managing to keep Wesley Clark from starting a war with Russia. Moe the Q's past history had kind of the same effect in Libya, even though he had been compliant with Western demands and refrained from involvement in terror or nukes after Saddam got spanked, we still went after him when we had a flimsy excuse to do so.

    Now just to inject a little Realpolitik and wargaming the other side into this, Moe actually makes a fantastic case in point to both the Norks and Iran that there really isn't any value to them in dropping their WMD programs, since history would seem to make it clear that we will still try to take them down later when they are in a weaker position, even if they do everything we ask now.
    Moe's point is spot on. Especially when you consider that the only thing protecting North Korea from outside intervention (besides China) is the threat of nuclear engagement. The lesson of Saddam to most third world kleptocrats is not to abandon WMDs, but to develop them before the major powers can engage you.

    Quote Originally Posted by DumbAss Tanker View Post
    I'm not so sure. Israel's penetration is limited to quick in-and-outs and highly-choreographed special operations to go after deep, very high-value targets, it's not routine freedom of maneuver. While the Syrian Air Force isn't much of a threat, the ADA system is, and the Russians have done their best to make it better and more resilient after each one of those Israeli penetrations. If the Syrians succeed in taking out a single B2, they're going to look like the winners.
    Israel has a few assets which are in open source, but not necessarily widely known, such as their submarine program. Israeli subs have a ballistic missile capability which can target most of Iran and all of Syria, but whose use would almost certainly touch off the powder keg.

    Quote Originally Posted by Arroyo_Doble View Post
    What do you think of Iran's hint at attacking Israel? Typical Islamic bluster or desperate act to inflame the citizens of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, et al by drawing the nation of Israel into the conflict (Obama is no George HW Bush and Israel would retaliate)?
    Quote Originally Posted by txradioguy View Post
    It's a bluff. A very old and tired one. Saddam threatened the same thing back in 1990...you see how that worked out for him.
    Yes, but Saddam did act on it with SCUDs. If he'd had nuclear payloads, the threat would have been far more dangerous, and it's unlikely that we'd have invaded at all.

    My only other thought on this is that we do have one regional ally who could be a real player in this, and that is the Kurds. Syrian Kurdistan borders Iraqi Kurdistan (which also borders Iranian Kurdistan), and the Kurds are not only our allies, they are also the most effective native fighting force among Muslims. The Syrian Kurds, like their brethren, are Sunni, but not Arab, and they have been viciously suppressed by the Assad regime. Arming them and allowing them to establish their own safe haven would severely weaken Assad and the Muslim Brotherhood/al Qaeda and help stabilize the region. Any thoughts?
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