I really think that Obama does not stand a chance. The polls if you look at the internals are skewed. You poll 50% Republicans and 50% Democrats and McCain wins in every poll. The pollsters look at the registration numbers and skew the numbers that way by oversampling.
Now McCain has started hammering the character issues. Obama's numbers will start to slide with in a week. Hopefully they will slide in 10 to 12 days instead. The timing of this new strategy by McCain was excellent. It will take one to two weeks for the effects of this to show up in the polls, a week of the Obama campaign trying first to cast it aside as desperate (with the numbers falling) and then realize that denial won't work. A day or two to decide on strategy and then trying to stem the tide. One thing about taking a hit in the polls on character issues, whatever they are countered with has to be substantial because if your numbers take a hit, it is because people are now doubting your character. What will Obama counter this with? Whatever he does, it will need at least 10 days to take hold. He does not have enough time.