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#1 John Kerry almost assured of victory and thus becoming our next president.
10-13-2008, 12:34 AM
- Join Date
- Aug 2005
Election Day ballot the only reliable poll
Political polls are an interesting item of which we voters should take lightly.
I, as a campaign volunteer, recall Election Day of 2004. At approximately 5 p.m., reports from exiting polls on the East Coast told of Sen. John Kerry almost assured of victory and thus becoming our next president.
When the voting was closed a few hours later and the votes were all cast and counted, we then heard the news that President George W. Bush was re-elected to a second term of office.
How could the polling be so inaccurate then? And how can the Minnesota polling conducted by the Star Tribune be so inaccurate now, with the huge leads projected against Sen. John McCain and Sen. Norm Coleman?
The answer lies in the method of the polling process. Poll results can say whatever one wants them to say, with the motive being one in the same.
On Election Day 2004, as now with less than 30 days until Election Day 2008, the motive of this polling process is to discourage certain voters and keep them away from the polls.
How is this accomplished? The answer lies in polling voters of which their political party is known, or over-polling the voters of a known political party.
On Election Day 2004, the exiting polling was over-conducted in Democrat precincts. Last week, the polling conducted by the Star Tribune was over-extended to the Democrats and thus less extended to the Republicans.
The Star Tribune, as most major media outlets, lean heavily to the left. They do not want the conservative and Republican principles to exist.
So conservative and fellow Republicans, please get out the vote on Election Day. Do not be swayed by the polling process, which wants you to stay home. Get out the vote on Election Day no matter what you read or hear regarding the projected polls.
The only accurate poll is the one conducted when all the votes are cast and counted.
10-13-2008, 12:43 AM
so sad. :(At Coretta Scott King's funeral in early 2006, Ethel Kennedy, the widow of Robert Kennedy, leaned over to him and whispered, "The torch is being passed to you." "A chill went up my spine," Obama told an aide. (Newsweek)
10-13-2008, 12:43 AM
- Join Date
- May 2008
- Sonora, Texas
The funniest part of the 2004 election was the media meltdown afterwards. Susan Estrich drunk off her ass on Fox threatening to take an investigation to the very top. Dan Rather pointing out that if Kerry won this state, and this state and this state went for Kerry, he could still pull it out and then recoil in horror as those states went for Bush. So he would recalculate saying well he can still win with this state and this state and this state and another state would go read. The as the other networks projected that Bush won, Rather was still trying to say that this state this satate could make a difference. The night ended with him refusing to declare Bush the winner. The meltdown this year will be even better. The funeral pyres will burn for days.
10-13-2008, 12:52 AM
This day on October 12, 2004.
Electoral map projection gleaned from polling data projects:
Kerry 260 Bush 274
With the exception of New Hampshire and Nevada, the polling was fairly accurate in 2004.
Kerry was never assured victory.
Last edited by xavierob82; 10-13-2008 at 12:56 AM.
10-13-2008, 12:57 AM
- Join Date
- May 2008
- Sonora, Texas
Obama's numbers have pretty much stagnated since the middle of last week. Get ready because the ACORN and Ayers issues are starting take hold. You think the Stock Market numbers hit a slide, just wait. On top of everything else, the market may have bottomed out and huge money is going to flood in buying up undervalued stocks as early as tommorow. Probably have record gains several days next week and that will aleveate a lot of the economic fears. There is going to be a turnaround and it will be big.
10-13-2008, 01:02 AM
In the last 3 days the Gallup has narrowed from 11 to 7 points difference
Zogby for tomorrow is 48-44
And Rasmussen is predicted at 50-45.
Only time will tell.
EyelidsGuest10-13-2008, 01:39 AM
In the latest Gallup tracking poll, Mr. Obama leads Mr. McCain 50 percent to 43 percent among registered voters. Mr. McCain’s deficit in that survey has remained seven percentage points or more for most of the last two weeks.
Since Gallup began presidential polling in 1936, only one candidate has overcome a deficit that large, and this late, to win the White House: Ronald Reagan, who trailed President Jimmy Carter 47 percent to 39 percent in a survey completed on Oct. 26, 1980.
The polls dont lie, and Obama holding significant leads in every tracking poll and in almost every battleground state is a clear sign about where this is going.
10-13-2008, 01:42 AM
Funny you should say that
davidswanson (1000+ posts) Mon Oct-13-08 01:37 AM
Lies, Damn Lies, and Polls Updated at 1:37 AM
David W. Moore, who worked for Gallup for 13 years as managing editor and senior editor of the Gallup Poll, has a new book out denouncing most polls by Gallup or anyone else as useless, and explaining that this became obvious to him when he first began work at Gallup, raising the obvious question of why he stuck around for 13 years. The explanation seems to be that he was trying to fix the problem, and one of the motivations for the book seems to be that he believes he still can fix it.
Of all the endless multilayered criticisms I have of polls, Moore focuses obsessively on only one. In a 160-page book on such a huge topic, you'd expect more than one idea endlessly repeated, but you won't find any more than that in "The Opinion Makers: An Insider Exposes the Truth Behind the Polls." Moore's concern is a significant one. He objects to the fact that polls are conducted and reported as if ignorance and apathy do not exist. Moore shows that when pollsters ask people whether they know about a topic, or whether they care if Congress acts in accordance with their wishes, the results turn out very differently from the ordinary poll that simply asks for a policy position. With the method that acknowledges indecision, you end up with a huge percentage of Americans having no opinion or not really caring. If you poll in this way you discover, for example, that a majority of Americans did not want the invasion of Iraq, a majority of Americans simply tolerated it.
Moore thinks polling is done quickly and shoddily to suit the interests of media outlets. I think it is also done in many ways to suit the policy agendas of media corporations. Moore recounts the story of pollster Louis Harris, whose company is now called Harris Interactive, who openly announced that he would conduct and report on polls favorable to Ted Kennedy's challenge to Jimmy Carter. But Moore takes no notice of the equally obvious agendas of most pollsters today. And Moore makes no mention of the single biggest problem with pollsters, namely that they do not poll at all on topics that are not approved by media corporations. Here's <a href=" http://www.afterdowningstreet.org/polling ">a history</a> of polling on the impeachment of Bush and Cheney. Harris was among the companies that poll for money but refused to poll on this topic even if paid. While the few pollsters that did polls found high support, others declared that they would not poll on something that was not in the news.
EyelidsGuest10-13-2008, 01:47 AM
Reading that snippet I can gather with some certainty that this guy is writing more about opinion polls on issues than election polls. Approval ratings, stances on issues... that kind of stuff where people dont have a choice A or choice B decision to make.
It's funny LibraryLady, you used to look at polls pretty intently and now that they've swayed towards Obama almost all at once you've disowned them. Tool.
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