Thread: John Kerry almost assured of victory and thus becoming our next president.

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  1. #11  
    Senior Member LibraryLady's Avatar
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    I have said repeatedly that I consider them a snapshot and the only poll that matters occurs on election day.

    I do watch them and unlike you, have learned to read the internals. They are very revealing.
     

  2. #12  
    Eyelids
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    Quote Originally Posted by LibraryLady View Post
    I have said repeatedly that I consider them a snapshot and the only poll that matters occurs on election day.

    I do watch them and unlike you, have learned to read the internals. They are very revealing.
    You never post anything about them, just alluding to them like there's something big there and when pressed to elaborate you scurry away.
     

  3. #13  
    Senior Member LibraryLady's Avatar
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    What do you want to know? I'll gladly teach you. (not tonight, it's late)

    Gallup's drop from 11 to seven
    These results, based on Oct. 9-11 polling, represent a narrowing of Obama's lead over McCain. Obama led by double-digits for three consecutive days last week, but now his advantage is down to seven percentage points. Obama has led in each of the last three individual days' polling, but by less than double-digits each day, suggesting that the race is, in fact, tightening.
    This shows a significant drop for Obama.

    I am a premium member of one polling company, actually am telephone polled for another and get emails fro the third. I admit i enjoy them but have learned form 40 years in politics that they can be terribly inaccurate.
     

  4. #14  
    Eyelids
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    Again, you posted no internals.

    The polls fluctuate, but you fail to realize a 7 point lead is still very substantial (as I pointed out earlier and you clearly ignored). Whats to say tomorrow it wont be back to +9 for Obama after a bad weekend for McCain?

    The states haven't tighetened up either, FL is getting bluer and bluer and now a PPP poll of Colorado (1300+ LV's) has Obama up by 10. IA + NM + CO + Kerry States = President Obama.
     

  5. #15  
    Senior Member LibraryLady's Avatar
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    For Heaven's sake, it's all at the link. You are the laziest student I have ever known.

    Most of it cannot be cut and pasted anyway.
     

  6. #16  
    Eyelids
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    Quote Originally Posted by LibraryLady View Post
    For Heaven's sake, it's all at the link. You are the laziest student I have ever known.

    Most of it cannot be cut and pasted anyway.
    That chart (which can be posted if you aren't retarded) doesn't say anything one way or the other. It just reiterates what the poll already said.

    Likely voter models lol, I can really sense the desperation now.
     

  7. #17  
    Senior Member LibraryLady's Avatar
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    OK, here's the likelys and then I am out of here:

    Obama's current advantage is slightly less when estimating the preferences of likely voters, which Gallup will begin reporting on a regular basis between now and the election. Gallup is providing two likely voter estimates to take into account different turnout scenarios.

    The first likely voter model is based on Gallup's traditional likely voter assumptions, which determine respondents' likelihood to vote based on how they answer questions about their current voting intention and past voting behavior. According to this model, Obama's advantage over McCain is 50% to 46% in Oct. 9-11 tracking data.
     

  8. #18  
    Eyelids
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    You of course provide none of the credentials for being a likely voter under that model.
     

  9. #19  
    Senior Member GrumpyOldLady's Avatar
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    Obama's going to win.

    It's going to be a very sad day for America.

    The idiots who supported him will rejoice.

    But then reality will zoom in and they will have buyers remorse.

    IF THERE IS STILL A COUNTRY LEFT - The republicans should sweep the nation in 2012.
    If leftists didn't have double standards, they'd have no standards at all.
     

  10. #20  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eyelids View Post
    You of course provide none of the credentials for being a likely voter under that model.
    It is right there, Blinky.

    The first likely voter model is based on Gallup's traditional likely voter assumptions, which determine respondents' likelihood to vote based on how they answer questions about their current voting intention and past voting behavior.
    Now do you get it? Registered voters are just that. Registered voters who have never voted included. No questions on how they voted in the past or anything else asked other than party affiliation and a couple of other questions. Does this make a difference? It does.
     

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