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#1 ACORNS Real Impact (Poll Weighting)
10-21-2008, 06:54 PM
- Join Date
- Aug 2005
..So it looks like we now know the origin of the 38, 39, 41 and 43 percent turn out of Democrats used in the polls. Before Acorn started., Democrat turn out was estimated to be in the mid 30s but as more and more names were registered by ACORN the apparent Democrat turn out went up, up, and up. But in Florida the Republican turn out looks like 36 percent and the independents are 22 percent of turn out. But what if the turn out is actually 36,36, 28... then Obama is hurting, and ACORNS attempt to stampede voters will... tator take
For those of you that are not into number crunching this column may not be for you. But if the rest of you will hang in there for a few minutes we may have figured out how the pollsters got the 39 to 43 weighing number for Democrat voters. It is not the percentage of Democrats that say they are going to vote, it is that percentage times the number of Registered Democrats. That gives you the number of Democrats they think are going to vote. If you use that to get a percentage of the total number of voters you get the high turn out for Democrats. Hang in there with me and I'll try to prove it with the numbers from Florida.
This year in Florida the Democrats have registered some 461,000 new voters while Republicans registered approximately 172,000 voters.
The Florida Division of Elections says Republicans now have 4,064,301 registered voters and Democrats have 4,722,076. That gives the Democrats more than 658,000 registered voters than Republicans this year. In 2004, Florida had 3,892,492 registered Republicans and 4,261,249 registered Democrats. The Democrat advantage in 2004 was 369,000.
Florida now has nearly 1 million more voters than four years ago. The total, including people not registered with any party, is now 11,247,634 registered voters, up from 10,301,290 in 2004. There are approximately 2,461,257 independent voters in Florida.
But how many of those new Democrats were registered by ACORN or one of its affiliates. It is a certainty that the the 172,000 newly registered Republicans are real voters and that nearly all will vote.
So if, as they did in Ohio in 2004, ACORN registered 250,000 fake Democrats and none of them voted, what is or was the purpose. Think about it a second. Say they planned to vote those 250 thousand fake names. It would be hard for one person to vote more than 50 fake names in a day. So that would take 5,000 people organized to vote 250 thousand fake names. Imagine trying to put together an illegal operation that required 5,000 people to each commit crimes that could ad up to decades in prison each. What would you have to pay people who would take that risk. And how smart would they have to be to pull off the impersonation.
You ask what about the inner city precincts where Republicans fear to tread. Why not just steal them the old fashioned way by having the five precinct workers steal them. But Miami black districts have only a fraction of the 451,000 new voters.
But what about the polls if 70 percent of the Democrats are going to vote. Then 70 percent of 4,722,076 is 3,305,453. If 70 percent of Republicans are going to vote then 70 percent of
4,064,301 is 2,845010. If the number of independents voting is 70 percent then 70 percent of
2,461,257 is 1,722,870. Add them up and we will have 3,305,453 Democrats plus 2,845,010 Republicans and 1,722 870 independents for a total of 7,873,333 Florida voters.
And that means 41.9 percent of the voters will be Democrats. So that is where the pollsters are getting that number that 41 to 43 percent of voters will be Democrats. And that is how they give Obama a big lead in the polls. Look at all the positive media stuff about Obama being a sure thing, it comes from flaws in turn out created by ACORN and its affiliates.
But what if it is like Ohio in 2004 and they don't vote those fake voters. It would take 15,000 people to vote all those Florida fake names. I don't think they will try to risk it. Out of the thousands of people it would take to do this, some of them would be willing to squeal to keep from going to prison.
So it looks like we now know the origin of the 38, 39, 41 and 43 percent turn out of Democrats used in the polls. Before Acorn started., Democrat turn out was estimated to be in the mid 30s but as more and more names were registered by ACORN the apparent Democrat turn out went up, up, and up. But in Florida the Republican turn out looks like 36 percent and the independents are 22 percent of turn out.
But what if the turn out is actually 36,36, 28... then Obama is hurting, and ACORNS attempt to stampede voters will not have worked. It appears to me that the more they fool the pollsters and make Obama look like a big winner the more independents and Democrats say they will vote for McCain.
This is no longer an election that goes by the previous rules. The polls may be worthless and just maybe we won't know the truth until the votes are actually counted. We will just have to wait and see. But I don't think this election is as hopeless and the media says. They are depending on ACORN created data. And I think that is not a reliable measure.
10-22-2008, 03:28 PM
- Join Date
- Jun 2008
- Lake Champlain
Makes a lot of sense.
10-22-2008, 05:04 PM
From your lips to God's ears.If leftists didn't have double standards, they'd have no standards at all.
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