A recent AP poll screamed trouble for Barack Obama.
It reported his base support to be just 80%. If this is accurate, and that is a very big IF, he can not win.
Last June when former Hillary Clinton supporters were asked, 58% supported Obama. But the same survey also showed 21% voting for John McCain.
A follow-up survey of the very same people showed support for McCain had grown to 28% while remaining stagnant at 58% for Obama. The undecideds seem to be moving to McCain.
These numbers have been swept under the rug by the media, but they are still very important.
During the Democratic primaries, exit polls showed a consistent core of 20% that would not be voting for Obama in the general election.
Whether Rush Limbaugh’s Operation Chaos can be blamed for this distressing news for Obama can be debated, but it doesn’t completely explain away the numbers in the face of subsequent polls showing the same results.
If Obama is getting just 80% of Democrat support he is in trouble. A base support this low can not be overcome and will not get Obama elected. Almost all polls of rank and file Democrats have shown Obama’s base support in the eighties and mid seventies.
In 2000 Al Gore got 92% and lost. In 2004 John Kerry got 89% and lost by a clear margin.
There would have to be a huge difference in party identification to pull Obama through with just 80% of his base. The reported split among Independents doesn’t help either.
A September AP poll of Democratic and Independent likely voters showed that 1/3 hold negative views of Blacks. The same surveyed showed that 40% of all Americans have negative views toward Blacks. Is it that hard to believe the 80% support level?snip