#1 If the AP is correct, Barack Obama’s base problem is very serious
10-24-2008, 10:31 AM
- Join Date
- Aug 2005
A recent AP poll screamed trouble for Barack Obama.
It reported his base support to be just 80%. If this is accurate, and that is a very big IF, he can not win.
Last June when former Hillary Clinton supporters were asked, 58% supported Obama. But the same survey also showed 21% voting for John McCain.
A follow-up survey of the very same people showed support for McCain had grown to 28% while remaining stagnant at 58% for Obama. The undecideds seem to be moving to McCain.
These numbers have been swept under the rug by the media, but they are still very important.
During the Democratic primaries, exit polls showed a consistent core of 20% that would not be voting for Obama in the general election.
Whether Rush Limbaugh’s Operation Chaos can be blamed for this distressing news for Obama can be debated, but it doesn’t completely explain away the numbers in the face of subsequent polls showing the same results.
If Obama is getting just 80% of Democrat support he is in trouble. A base support this low can not be overcome and will not get Obama elected. Almost all polls of rank and file Democrats have shown Obama’s base support in the eighties and mid seventies.
In 2000 Al Gore got 92% and lost. In 2004 John Kerry got 89% and lost by a clear margin.
There would have to be a huge difference in party identification to pull Obama through with just 80% of his base. The reported split among Independents doesn’t help either.
A September AP poll of Democratic and Independent likely voters showed that 1/3 hold negative views of Blacks. The same surveyed showed that 40% of all Americans have negative views toward Blacks. Is it that hard to believe the 80% support level?snip
10-24-2008, 10:32 AM
- Join Date
- Aug 2005
If the AP numbers are true Obama is cooked
And The media attempt to blame Republicans for the financial crisis is coming apart and may not be swaying Americans anymore.
A new AP poll showing John McCain down by one point was indeed good news.
A quick read of its likely voter internals provides stunning news:
Obama’s base support is not there
Hiding down at the very end of the article was a stunning piece of bad news for Barack Obama: Democrat base support is just “eight of 10” and the Republican base support for McCain is 90%. Neither candidate can win with just 80% of his base support. The “even split” found among Independents clearly adds to Obama’s troubles if these numbers hold.
The Joe the Plumber factor
McCain has closed the gap with Joe and Jane the Plumber.
He now trails by just 4 points with likely voters making under $50,000. A month ago was down 26 points.
McCain has surged among rural voters and now has an 18-point advantage, up from 4.
He doubled his advantage among whites who haven’t finished college and now leads by 20 points.
McCain has gone from plus 10 to plus 20 among Whites who have not finished college. Among White college graduates he is even.
McCain now leads White women by 7 points and White men by 22 points. This is very good for McCain because Obama’s White male vote might still be in the upper 30’s. Since Al Gore and John Kerry got 36%, it is very unlikely that his support among White males will do anything but fall just as Kerry’s did in the last two weeks in 2004.
Improving even on a strength, McCain is now up 24 points with married Whites, and trails by just 8 points among unmarried Whites.
Last month’s survey gave Obama a 15 point advantage on handling the economy and the financial crisis. That advantage on both fronts is down to 6 points.
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