#1 "New Rasmussen Reports 'In The Bag' By Almost 8 Points For The Progressive/Liberals !
10-26-2008, 09:22 PM
- Join Date
- Aug 2005
New Rasmussen Reports Partisan Weighting Targets: 40.0% Democrat 32.8% Republican
"This strategy is to discourage Republician Voters from voting by greatly inflating Liberal poll numbers !"
Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large. Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process (see methodology).
During the final two months of the election season, we are updating these targets on a weekly basis to stay current with the public mood. While partisan affiliation is generally quite stable over time, there are a fair number of people who waver between allegiance to a particular party or independent status. The intensity of a campaign season may cause subtle changes in the partisan landscape as Election Day draws near.
The targets are not set arbitrarily. Rather, they are established based upon survey interviews with a separate sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding six weeks. A total of 500 nightly interviews are conducted for a total of 21,000 interviews over the six week period.
This week’s adjustment once again shows a trend moving slowly in the Democratic direction. There is a three-tenths-of-a-percentage-point increase in the number of Democrats and a two-tenths-of-a-point decline in the number of Republicans.
On a net basis, the numbers have shifted very slightly in the Democratic direction every single week since mid-September. Not coincidentally, Lehman Brothers collapsed in mid-September and the financial meltdown on Wall Street began at that time.
For polling data released during the week of October 26-November 1, 2008, the partisan weighting targets will be 40.0% Democratic, 32.8% Republican, and 27.2% unaffiliated. For the preceding week, the partisan weighting targets were 39.7% Democratic, 33.0% Republican, and 27.3% unaffiliated.
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