I FINALLY Figured Out Why Most of the Polls are WRONG

[mike128]

Please read completely before responding:

Yesterday, I was watching This Week With George Stephanopoulos (I already know he's a liberal. That's not the point).

On the show, George displayed two ABC News/Washington Post polls: one from 2004, and the other from 2008, of registered Republicans vs. registered Democrats.

• The 2004 poll showed that 37% of likely voters were registered Democrats, and the same amount of likely voters, 37%, were registered Republicans.

• The 2008 poll also showed that 37% of likely voters are registered Democrats, but now, only 29% of likely voters are now registered Republicans.

So what happened? Why didn't the party affiliation of likely voters go UP for the Democrats in the 2008 poll, while the party affiliation of Republican likely voters tanked in the 2008 poll? I'll tell you why: Because many frustrated conservatives left the Republican Party during the first two years of Bush's second term, and re-registered as either Conservative or Independent. Even Sean Hannity is no longer registered as a Republican! This happened because of liberal leglislation advocated by RINOs in congress and supported by the Bush White House. This is also why Republicans lost both houses of Congress back in 2006!

Are you still with me? OK. Good.

So what does any of this have to do with most of the polls being wrong??

First, let me start off by saying that Sarah Palin changed EVERYTHING, especially for conservatives. Most conservatives who were either not going to vote for McCain, or were undecided as to whether or not to even show up and vote, are now going to enthusiastically vote for John McCain, because Sarah Palin is a solid conservative. This includes conservatives who have left the Republican Party, and re-registered as something else.

Second, most public polls include a fixed percentage of Republican respondents and a fixed percentage of Democrat respondents, based on an actual number of registered Republican voters vs. an actual number of registered Democrat voters.

BUT WHAT ABOUT THOSE RE-REGISTERED FORMER REPUBLICANS AND CONSERVATIVES WHO NOW PLAN ON VOTING FOR THE McCAIN/PALIN TICKET?? ARE THEY FACTORED INTO ANY OF THESE PUBLIC POLLS WITH A WEIGHTED VALUE?? DON'T FORGET, THESE VOTERS ARE NO LONGER REGISTERED REPUBLICANS!

HOW CAN ANY PUBLIC POLL THAT PLACES A WEIGHED VALUE ON PARTY REGISTRATION, YET TOTALLY IGNORES McCAIN/PAILN VOTERS WHO HAVE LEFT THE REPUBLICAN PARTY WITHIN THE LAST 3-4 YEARS, BE CONSIDERED AN ACCURATE REPRESENTATION OF THE ELECTORATE??

The point is, just go out and VOTE! I don't even care if the polls say that the "Messiah" is ahead by 20, or even 30 points in your state, or if those Obama robots in the liberal media keep saying that it's over. Just go vote! I have already proven in this thread that most public polls are wrong because of poor methodology. So now, no conservative on this forum can make up any excuse to not go out to the polls on November 4th and VOTE!!

[mike128]

Go VOTE on November 4th!

Democrats and Liberals ONLY: Your day to vote is scheduled on November 5th.

[megimoo]

Please read completely before responding:

Yesterday, I was watching This Week With George Stephanopoulos (I already know he's a liberal. That's not the point).

On the show, George displayed two ABC News/Washington Post polls: one from 2004, and the other from 2008, of registered Republicans vs. registered Democrats.

• The 2004 poll showed that 37% of likely voters were registered Democrats, and the same amount of likely voters, 37%, were registered Republicans.

• The 2008 poll also showed that 37% of likely voters are registered Democrats, but now, only 29% of likely voters are now registered Republicans.

So what happened? Why didn't the party affiliation of likely voters go UP for the Democrats in the 2008 poll, while the party affiliation of Republican likely voters tanked in the 2008 poll? I'll tell you why: Because many frustrated conservatives left the Republican Party during the first two years of Bush's second term, and re-registered as either Conservative or Independent. Even Sean Hannity is no longer registered as a Republican! This happened because of liberal leglislation advocated by RINOs in congress and supported by the Bush White House. This is also why Republicans lost both houses of Congress back in 2006!

Are you still with me? OK. Good.

So what does any of this have to do with most of the polls being wrong??

First, let me start off by saying that Sarah Palin changed EVERYTHING, especially for conservatives. Most conservatives who were either not going to vote for McCain, or were undecided as to whether or not to even show up and vote, are now going to enthusiastically vote for John McCain, because Sarah Palin is a solid conservative. This includes conservatives who have left the Republican Party, and re-registered as something else.

Second, most public polls include a fixed percentage of Republican respondents and a fixed percentage of Democrat respondents, based on an actual number of registered Republican voters vs. an actual number of registered Democrat voters.

BUT WHAT ABOUT THOSE RE-REGISTERED FORMER REPUBLICANS AND CONSERVATIVES WHO NOW PLAN ON VOTING FOR THE McCAIN/PALIN TICKET?? ARE THEY FACTORED INTO ANY OF THESE PUBLIC POLLS WITH A WEIGHTED VALUE?? DON'T FORGET, THESE VOTERS ARE NO LONGER REGISTERED REPUBLICANS!

HOW CAN ANY PUBLIC POLL THAT PLACES A WEIGHED VALUE ON PARTY REGISTRATION, YET TOTALLY IGNORES McCAIN/PAILN VOTERS WHO HAVE LEFT THE REPUBLICAN PARTY WITHIN THE LAST 3-4 YEARS, BE CONSIDERED AN ACCURATE REPRESENTATION OF THE ELECTORATE??

The point is, just go out and VOTE! I don't even care if the polls say that the "Messiah" is ahead by 20, or even 30 points in your state, or if those Obama robots in the liberal media keep saying that it's over. Just go vote! I have already proven in this thread that most public polls are wrong because of poor methodology. So now, no conservative on this forum can make up any excuse to not go out to the polls on November 4th and VOTE!!

Give that guy a cookie,he figured it all out by himself.You forgot to add in the inflated Democrat vote counts and the real reason that ACORN is registering those phony Democrats .

If they show up at the polls and cannot show an id they can't vote in most places that's why Obama told em to vote by absentee ballot .This whole offset stuff is to discourage the conservative voters into not voting.By tilting the polls in the liberal direction is the only way they could do that .Most people by now realize that the polls are untrustworthy and read but don't believe them to be totally accurate.

[mike128]

Most people by now realize that the polls are untrustworthy and read but don't believe them to be totally accurate.

I do hope you're right. Unfortunately, too many of those independent swing voters who don't really care much about politics are likely to believe what they see in the liberal media. So if the 'messiah' looks like he's winning, those voters who are still undecided would likely just pick the candidate who looks like the winner. The liberal media knows this, which is why we're seeing all of this one-sided coverage favoring Obama. I really wish this wasn't the case, but I have to call it as I see it. :(

I'm just hoping that my theory of polls weighted by political party getting skewed turns out to be correct.

[marinejcksn]

Don't forget though that a lot of polls take into account registered Independents as well, this is where McCain will win or lose the election. I know a lot of former republicans are now registered independents (I am) so if the polls you're sampling have a fairly even number of Democrats, Republicans and Independents polled the numbers will probably be close to what you're seeing. They're still way inflated, in my opinion. I've seen polls predicting Obama will win by as high as 17.

He wont win by that large of a margin if he does in fact win. Almost every single exit poll that had Kerry in 2004 ahead of Bush, Bush won. McCain is still in this thing, no matter what the media trys to present.

[AlmostThere]

Obama is ahead in all the polls. Pelosi declares that there is NO chance McCain is going to win. It's all insurance. If McCain wins, the election must have been stolen again. After all, it was stolen in 2000, 2004, right??; Why not 2008? The Democrats can spend the next 4 years trashing anything McCain does because he's actually an illegitimate president cuz he stole the election. The polls said Obama was going to win so it must have been stolen if he didn't. Any of this sound familiar?

I have to give it to the Dems, it's genius. Now let's kick their asses on Nov 4th.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3Ned5TQoW4

[AmPat]

DIMS always have an endgame contingincy. You are correct that they are going to call this election stolen. It is dangerous and potentially catastrophic to the future of the USA. They know this lie will stir resentment in the Balck community and they don't care. DIMS don't care what the cost is! They only desire power and will sacrifice anything to get it.

Their prime example is UHBama himself: Spiritual Mentor-Wright/Grandma/ Promises/ Political Mentor-Ayers/ et cetera, thrown under the bus. If the cost of an Uhbama presidency is the death of the USA, oh well. Liberals don't care. POWER is king. Liberals will not accept less.

[AlmostThere]

I was watching Lou Dobbs a couple nights ago when the race was tightening. Lou had 2 guests, both black gentlemen, who concluded that the tightening must be because of Republican cheating and if Obama loses, it's because the election was stolen as it was in 2000 and 2004. If McCain wins, Wednesday morning will be a very interesting time in American history.

[AmPat]

I was watching Lou Dobbs a couple nights ago when the race was tightening. Lou had 2 guests, both black gentlemen, who concluded that the tightening must be because of Republican cheating and if Obama loses, it's because the election was stolen as it was in 2000 and 2004. If McCain wins, Wednesday morning will be a very interesting time in American history.

I don't know which is more disturbing, the two idiots proclaiming the previous elections were stolen or that Republicans are cheating. ALL, repeat, ALL the election cheating and fraud is on the LIBERAL DIM side.