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Remove Gallup's 12% Democrat over sampling and it's McCain/Palin in a landslide!
I have never trusted Zogby. Ever. Including when his news was good for our side.
Rasmussen strikes me as an honest man, but even he seems to go with the flawed CW for adjusting raw numbers against party registration.
Which pollster predicted the GOP tsunami in '94? No one, as far as I remember.
Who predicted Mario Cuomo's defeat at the hands of unknown George Pataki? No one, as far as I remember.
What most pollsters are missing this year is the hottest intensity on the part of conservative voters, EVER.
People I know who couldn't get terribly riled up over the prospect of a Gore or Kerry presidency CAN'T WAIT to vote this year.
Monday, October 27, 2008 at 08:57AM CDT
Is McCain surging or are pollsters tightening up their models to salvage some credibility? Either way, the MSM is desperately trying to supress Republican enthusiasm and smug elitist Beltway conservatives are eating their baloney. We must spread the truth and generate energy ourselves.
Monday polling is historically bad for Republicans. Much of the data is based on Saturday or Sunday, when working famililes and people of faith are less inclined to answer the phone. Polls based on weekend data tend to favor Democrats. That being said, the first four polls of Monday show McCain has:
shaven 3 points off Rasmussen - Obama +5
shaven 5 points off Zogby - Obama +5
shaven 1 point off GW/Battleground - Obama +3
shaven 3 points off biased Kos pollster Research USA - Obama +8
Word is the McCain internals had him down four over the weekend. If McCain can get it within a couple of points, and he has over a week to do so, McCain can win. The majority of the battleground states are states that Hillary whipped Obama despite polling. If the polling/election trends for the general mimic the polling/election trends for Democratic Primary, McCain wins Ohio, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.
Keep the faith. Keep fighting. Spread the good news.