Some REAL numbers from Virginia (and why McCain will win)
Some real numerical analysis from the Commonwealth of Virginia, tells a slightly different tales from the one portrayed in the national media, and their criminal accomplices the pollsters.
The narrative being spun around the country by the astroturfing propaganda machine on steroids Obama campaign is that there is a ton of huge new voter registration and new voters that will carry Obama to a prolific landslide victory. But the actual historical numbers tell a different story, but a story that is becoming increasingly common this cycle. The statistics support this election being very normal and conventional.
Below are the actual voter registration statistics for the past 4 election cycles.
1992- 3055486 Registered voters statewide
1996- 3322740 Registered voters statewide (+8.7)
2000- 4073644 Registered voters statewide (+18.4%)
2004- 4517980 Registered voters statewide (+10.9%)
10/2008- 4890393 Registered voters statewide (+8.2%)
What this shows us is that Virginia's increase in registered voters is completely in line with the normal increases over the past 16 years. Now how has the increase in voters affected the results in the state? Let's analyze those stats. The best comparison is a comparison between state margin of victory and the national numbers relatively. Here goes
1996- Dems 45.1% Reps 47.1% MOV Reps +2 Nationally Dems +9% (Republicans beat national number by 11%) Voters increased by 8.7%
2000- Dems 44.4% Reps 52.5% MOV Reps +8.1% Nationally Dems +.5% (Republicans beat national number by 8.6%) Voters Increased by 18.4%
2004- Dems 45.8% Reps 53.6% MOV Reps +7.8% Nationally Reps +2.5% (Republicans beat national number by 5.3%) Voters Increased by 10.9%
2008- ??? Voters have increased by 8.2%
The moral of the story is this, with huge additional voter registrations, Virginia is getting more competitive, which portends its status as a battleground state this election and for the next one as well. However, total new voter increase is slowing down, and with the massive new voters in the past two cycles, the GOP has still maintained the same percentage edge in presidential contests. GOP outperforms the national number in Virginia which would mean that if Obama wants to claim Virginia, he will need a decisive national popular vote margin possibly 7% or more.
At this point, none of the legitimate polls show him with that level of lead, and as much as the Obama campaign has penned a lovely narrative of transformative voter numbers, the stats don't support it.
If Obama can't win Virginia, his options for an electoral college victory rest in the west. He would have to flip CO, NV, and NM and hold all the other Kerry States. And as previous analysis has shown, CO will be close, but it doesn't appear that they have done enough to overtake the Republican advantage there.