Thread: The McCain-Palin Landslide
#1 The McCain-Palin Landslide
11-03-2008, 02:58 PM
- Join Date
- Aug 2005
Your first thought is that I am drunk on Kool-Aid when you see this title.
I am going to show you why I am so sure about this prediction. Your next question is why should anyone pay any attention to me about such a ridiculous prediction. The answer is that in 45 years in politics, I have never been wrong about an election call even when I was called crazy. That includes get elected to office to prove I was right about winning an election. See my biography for details. I have to be very sure to risk a 45 year reputation so remember that you read it here first.
The next question is how could I possibly be so sure when the polls are predicting the exact opposite?
Because I know the polls are wrong since they are not properly taking into account the P.U.M.A. Factor. I have explained previously that the mere fact that the polls violently disagree with each other is proof of something seriously amiss with the polling models. See my article on The P.U.M.A. Factor. On November 1st, I posted an article entitled How Big is the P.U.M.A. Factor?
That article pointed out that, at the time I wrote it, it required only a total of 493,636 PUMA voters in North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado to produce a tie in the electoral votes.
Add a mere 35,935 more in Nevada and McCain-Palin wins. At the time, I was almost ready to bet the ranch that there were 529,571 PUMA voters in those six states, but I waited another 24 hours to make sure. Now the trend is so clear that it is obvious to me that a McCain-Palin landslide is in the works. It is amazing how few people in politics never apply some fairly simple mathematics to see what is going to happen in the next election.
Let us begin by repeating the table showing how few PUMA voters are required for McCain-Palin to win from my previous article. That table listed all battleground states where McCain-Palin was less than 13 points behind in the Real Clear Politics averages in those states.
What leaps out at you is that Iowa has dropped off the table because the RCP average is fighting the trend and has gone from 11.6 to 15.3 points and is out of reach.
On the other hand, Minnesota has gone from above 13 points down to 9.8 and now needs to be added to the table. Eight of the other states have dropped significantly in the RCP averages and two are unchanged. Now instead of McCain-Palin needing 493,636 PUMA votes to tie and 35,935 more to win, they only need 332,013 to tie and 34,276 more to win. I have changed the last two columns to reflect the changes in the RCP averages and the number of PUMA voters no longer required. I know a trend when I see one.
Even more important is how few PUMA voters in these eleven states are required for a McCain-Palin landslide.
If you add up the PUMA's needed column in the second table, you will see that only an extra 507,231 more PUMA's are needed to sweep the table. That is a mere 873,520 PUMA's spread across eleven states are needed to produce a McCain-Palin landslide. Do you really want to tell me that there are not that many Hillary supporters who cannot vote for Obama-Biden in these eleven states out of 18,000,000 of them? Now who is drinking the Kool-Aid?
Do I really think that that McCain-Palin will carry all of these states?
No, because I am worried that there are not enough PUMA's in the western states, particularly New Mexico and possibly Colorado. What I will bet my 45 year reputation on is that McCain-Palin will win by at least 42 electoral votes. I will recalculate everything tomorrow and will undoubtedly up my estimate to around a 100 vote margin if the RCP averages continue to drop.
UPDATE: I have now updated my tables based on the latest RCP averages as of 2:00 PM EDT. Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania have edged back up slightly, but are still below the average from two days ago. North Carolina is now a tie and RCP now shows it for McCain-Palin on the no toss up map. The big news is that Florida has come down drastically from 4.2 to 2.5 and is bound to go for McCain-Palin. The stunning news is that Minnesota is coming on like gangbusters. The kind of movement would indicate that Minnesota is quite likely to go for McCain. I will up my prediction from a 42 to a 52 electoral votes margin pending further data.
11-03-2008, 03:34 PM
- Join Date
- Jun 2008
- Lake Champlain
The PUMA factor, and the ACORN factor, combined, have caused the pollsters to "weight" their polling all wrong. I suspect the polls are skewed anywhere from two to seven points in Obama's favor, because the "weighting" takes into account all the ACORN Dem registrants who do not exist and will never cast a ballot, and does not account for all the PUMAs who will not be voting Dem.
Most of these polls also account for huge turnouts of young people and blacks. While blacks are turning out more than usual, it appears from early voting observation that "young people" aren't turning out any more than they usually do.
So while my hopes are not extremely high for a McCain win, I have definitely not written him off, and I will sure as shit make it to my polling place tomorrow, and pull the lever for a real American hero.
11-03-2008, 04:44 PM
About To Fail.At Coretta Scott King's funeral in early 2006, Ethel Kennedy, the widow of Robert Kennedy, leaned over to him and whispered, "The torch is being passed to you." "A chill went up my spine," Obama told an aide. (Newsweek)
11-03-2008, 04:48 PM
Alright LP, here's the deal- If Obama wins you have to stop posting here. If McCain wins...you have to stop posting here.Loyalty Binds Me- Motto of Richard III
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