11-11-2008, 02:45 PM
- Join Date
- Nov 2008
Mike Huckabee/ Mitt Romney. But it is still 4 years from now, many things can happen between now and then.
At least once every human should have to run for his life, to teach him that milk does not come from supermarkets, that safety does not come from policemen, that news is not something that happens to other people. ~ Robert Heinlein
You Say The Battle Is Over
11-11-2008, 03:25 PM
Back when I pointed out that Obama would be the nominee (at the beginning of the primaries) because Democrats always try to pick new faces when they don't have an incumbent for the ticket, I also pointed out that Republicans tend to pick the person who they perceive as having paid their dues during the previous campaign. The pattern is Nixon in 1968, Reagan in 1980 (after running against Ford in '76), Bush 41 in '88 (as Reagan's veep and also Reagan's previous primary adversary), Dole in '96 (Ford's veep, primary also ran in 1980) and McCain in 2008 (Bush 43's primary opponent in 2000). The sole exception to that is Bush 43. The point is, we always nominate someone who made their bones in the previous election cycles. That means either Romney, as the second place finisher in the 2008 primaries or Palin, but Huckabee and Giuliani also have a shot. Republicans like to vet their candidates. Now, of these, Palin has the highest profile and is the most conservative as a governor (Romney is weak on abortion, but very strong on executive experience, but after a full term and a half as governor of Alaska, Palin will have more experience to offer, and Huckabee was weak on the tax issue, another Palin strength). Giuliani has too much baggage in terms of socially liberal positions to appeal to the party mainstream, although he did do very well as a convention speaker.
The vice president is a purely tactical pick, the goal being to provide someone who does no harm to the ticket and who can provide the kinds of barbed shots that the presidential candidate can't without seeming petty. The veep is the campaign's attack dog. Despite the media attacks on her, and the perceptions of the most liberal members of CU, Palin met both criteria. She energized the Republican base and actually did the attack dog job fairly well, and would have been more effective if the campaign had used her more. The point is that the veep has to be someone who can deliver a good, mean soundbyte and who is perceived as a viable alternate to the top of the ticket, in that order. If Giuliani didn't alienate so many conservatives, he'd be perfect.
My prediction is that Palin will be the nominee, with someone out of the senate as her veep choice, possibly John Cornyn of TX (solid conservative and a good senator who easily held his seat this year). Bobby Jindal is a longshot, both as the nominee and as the veep, since he's never run for president before, and you don't need two governors on the ticket.
(Oh, and if Obama governs the way that I think he will, then expect a serious primary challenge from Hillary, similar to Teddy Kennedy's challenge of Carter in 1980).
Last edited by Odysseus; 11-11-2008 at 03:30 PM.--Odysseus
Sic Hacer Pace, Para Bellum.
Before you can do things for people, you must be the kind of man who can get things done. But to get things done, you must love the doing, not the people!
11-11-2008, 03:29 PMAt least once every human should have to run for his life, to teach him that milk does not come from supermarkets, that safety does not come from policemen, that news is not something that happens to other people. ~ Robert Heinlein
You Say The Battle Is Over
11-11-2008, 03:43 PM
If the economy recovers during Obama's first term-- which it probably will-- then Obama will win in a landslide in 2012. The Obama get-out-the-vote effort is phenomenal. Obama supporters will crawl over broken glass to vote for him. ... Especially with all these names I'm hearing tossed around. Palin? Romney? Jindal? Newt!?!?!?:eek: You gotta be kidding me.
What Republicans don't seem to understand is that religious/evangelical Christian conservativism is dead in America. Everywhere except in the Deep South, it appears. The GOP has now become a regional party.
You Repubs have fucked up so bad, that even affluent, educated voters have now become Democrats. You all don't seem to realize that America has undergone a political realignment.
Affluent Voters Key to Obama Victory
Last edited by xavierob82; 11-11-2008 at 03:45 PM.
11-11-2008, 04:02 PM
I would not agree that he could ever win in a landslide. The magic negro novelty has 4, likely painful years to wear off. There is many a slip betwixt a cup and a lip. He is not even in office and people are wondering why he hasnt gotten anything done.
Yes, he will lift the ban on stem cell research with executive order and the msm and holly wood elite will croon.
No, no one really cares. They care about their wallet.
If gas is 5 bucks a gallon, President X is gone; stem cells or not.
Last edited by zBoots; 11-11-2008 at 04:04 PM.
"I will stand with the Muslims should the political winds shift in an ugly direction." -Barack Hussein Obama
11-11-2008, 04:14 PM
Last edited by M21; 11-11-2008 at 04:22 PM.At least once every human should have to run for his life, to teach him that milk does not come from supermarkets, that safety does not come from policemen, that news is not something that happens to other people. ~ Robert Heinlein
You Say The Battle Is Over
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