Minnesota Recount Live, Day 7: One numbers junkie's prediction — Franken over Coleman by 27 votes
Things may not be going as well as Al Franken hoped in the recount, but don't tell that to Nate Silver. The numbers junkie behind FiveThirtyEight.com predicts that Franken will win the recount — once all challenges are resolved — by 27 votes. (Related: Franken losing ground to Coleman on DFL turf
How'd he come up with that number?
It's little complex — OK, that's an understatement — but Silver basically did a regression analysis using recounted precincts where there were few or no challenged ballots (Franken has done well there) and projected it across the rest of the state.
The analysis has caught national attention. Here's MSNBC's Rachel Maddow, speaking Monday night on her show:
"In the Minnesota Senate race — over the weekend, FiveThirtyEight.com`s Nate Silver, America`s most widely-loved electoral projector, analyzed precinct-by-precinct returns and predicted that Al Franken will win the recount by a grand total of 27 votes. If Nate Silver turns out to be exactly right in this race, like he was in the presidential race, with this 27-vote margin prediction — if he`s right again, the whole country has to buy him a beer — 300 million beers for Nate Silver."
HOW CRUCIAL ARE REJECTED ABSENTEE BALLOTS?
The State Canvassing Board on Wednesday is scheduled to consider the Franken campaign's argument that all rejected
absentee ballots should be reviewed and that improperly rejected absentees should then be counted.
How big a deal will that be?
Larry Jacobs, director of the University of Minnesota's Center for the Study of Politics and Governance told the Pioneer Press this: "The Franken campaign is going to win or lose based on what happens with the absentees."
And how many rejected absentee ballots would have to be reviewed?
Well, there were 425 rejected absentees in Scott County alone. And more than 1,000 in Ramsey County. In short, a lot.
PAWLENTY DOESN'T THINK HE'LL GET TO PLAY PICK THE SENATOR
Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty doesn't think the Senate recount will mean he'll get to appoint the next Senator.
"That seems highly unlikely," the governor said Monday.
Highly unlikely doesn't mean impossible and that leaves enough of a possibility that Minnesota political geeks can play the parlor game: Who would Pawlenty pick?
EMPTY SENATE SEAT EQUALS MORE INAUGURATION TICKETS FOR KLOBUCHAR
The possible upside of the U.S. Senate recount leaving the next senator unclear when Congress reconvenes on Jan. 6?
"Then I can get all the inauguration tickets," Sen. Amy Klobuchar said with a smile, during a Monday meeting with the Pioneer Press editorial board. (For the board's Q&A with Klobuchar, check out: www.twincities.com/opinion/ci_11064482.)