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  1. #1 The End of Oil!!! 
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    1885, the Pennsylvania State Geologist: “the amazing exhibition of oil was only a ‘temporary and vanishing phenomenon – one which young men will live to see come to its natural end.”

    1885, John Archbold, partner in Standard Oil: “I’ll drink every gallon of oil found west of the Mississippi”

    1909: Titusville Herald: “Petroleum has been used for less than 50 years, and it is estimated that the supply will last about 25 or 30 years longer. If production is curtailed and waste stopped it may last till the end of the century. The most important effects of its disappearance will be in the lack of illuminants. Animal and vegetable oils will not begin to supply its place. This being the case, the reckless exploitation of oil fields and the consumption of oil for fuel should be checked.” Link.

    1919, Oil and Gas News: “In meeting the world’s needs, however, the oil from the United States will continue to occupy a less and less dominant position, because within the next two to five years the oil fields of this country will reach their maximum production and from [then] on we will face an ever-increasing decline.”

    1920, US President Wilson: “There seemed to be no method by which we could assure ourselves of the necessary supply [of oil] at home and abroad.”
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  2. #2  
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    1941: US Dept. of the Interior: “American oil supplies will last only another 13 years.”

    1943, Oil and Gas Journal: “There is a growing opinion that the United States has reached its peak oil production, the Oil and Gas Journal pointed out in its current issue. Since 1938, discoveries of new oil have not equaled withdrawals, in any single year, although there is a very good chance that 1943 will see enough new Ellenburger oil in West Texas to provide an excess.”

    1956, Hubbert: “M. King Hubbert of the Shell Development Co. predicted [one year ago] that peak oil production would be reached in the next 10 to 15 years and after that would gradually decline.”

    1957: The residents of Tulsa, Oklahoma buried a car as part of a large time capsule. They buried containers of gasoline with it because they feared there would be no gasoline in 2007 when the capsule was to be opened. Link.

    May, 1972, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Richard Wilson: “At any rate, U.S. oil supplies will last only 20 years. Foreign supplies will last 40 or 50 years but are increasingly dependent upon world politics.”

    1977, US Department of Energy Organization Act: “As a nation, Americans have been reluctant to accept the prospect of physical shortages. We must recognize that world oil production will likely peak in the early 1990’s, and from that point on will be on a declining curve. By the early part of the 21st century, we must face the prospect of running out of oil and natural gas.” Link.

    1978: Glenn Seaborg, chairman AEC: “We are living in the twilight of the petroleum age.”

    1980, Dr. Hans Bethe: The world will reach peak oil production before the year 2000.

    1996, Dr. Richard Smalley: “…oil production will likely peak by 2020 and start declining. “
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  3. #3  
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    2002, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden: “Global supplies of crude oil will peak as early as 2010 and then start to decline, ushering in an era of soaring energy prices and economic upheaval — or so said an international group of petroleum specialists meeting Friday.” Link.

    2005, Chris Skrebowski, editor of the Energy Institute in London Petroleum Review: “We should be worried. Time is short, and we are not even at the point where we admit we have a problem … Governments are always excessively optimistic. The problem is that the peak, which I think is 2008, is tomorrow in planning terms.”
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  4. #4  
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    I remember reading years ago of a clerk in the US Patent office who, pre-1900, resigned his job to search for another.
    His reason "Everything that can be invented, has been invented, so this office will be gone in just a few years."
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  5. #5  
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    It's not how old you are, it's how you got here.
    It's been a long road and not all of it was paved.
    . If you ain't havin' fun, it's your own damn fault
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  6. #6  
    If you look at the graph you posted, you’ll notice that it actually illustrates that US consumption of oil is flattening out, and that the upward kick in the total amount of fuel being used is driven entirely by every energy source OTHER than oil.

    And this is a chart from the US, where they’ve got at oil resources previously thought to be inaccessible through things like fracking, which are an environmental and public safety hazard. Other countries- such as European nations - pride themselves on their foresight, ie. transitioning to using renewables now, rather than when it’s too late. Charts from Germany, Denmark, Spain, or France would actually show a decrease in oil use.

    The end of oil is coming and it’s not something to weep into your hands about neither.
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  7. #7  
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    The U.S. is on pace to leapfrog Saudi Arabia and Russia and reclaim the title of the world's biggest oil producer for the first time since the 1970s.

    The latest forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts that U.S. output will grow next year to 11.8 million barrels a day.
    Last edited by Retread; 08-02-2018 at 04:41 PM. Reason: Cleanup
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  8. #8  
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    Quote Originally Posted by nishiochain.m View Post
    If you look at the graph you posted, you’ll notice that it actually illustrates that US consumption of oil is flattening out, and that the upward kick in the total amount of fuel being used is driven entirely by every energy source OTHER than oil.

    And this is a chart from the US, where they’ve got at oil resources previously thought to be inaccessible through things like fracking, which are an environmental and public safety hazard. Other countries- such as European nations - pride themselves on their foresight, ie. transitioning to using renewables now, rather than when it’s too late. Charts from Germany, Denmark, Spain, or France would actually show a decrease in oil use.

    The end of oil is coming and it’s not something to weep into your hands about neither.
    While totally agreeing with your last sentence, what I completely disagree on is the time line. The end of oil won’t come for another two or three centuries at least.

    Over and above transportation direct fuels, here are a few products from/by hydrocarbons - Insecticides, Ink, Floor Wax, Pens, Upholstery, Clothing, Boats, Sports Car Bodies, Nail Polish, Fishing Lures, Bags, Perfumes, Cassettes, Dishwasher Parts, Tool Boxes, Shoe Polish, Helmets, Caulking, Petroleum Jelly, Tape, Washers, Antiseptics, Curtains, Food Preservatives, Basketballs, Soap, Antihistamines, Purses, Dashboards, Cortisone, Deodorant, Footballs, Putty, Dyes, Panty Hose, Refrigerant, Percolators, Life Jackets, Rubbing Alcohol, Linings, Skis, TV Cabinets, Shag Rugs, Electrician's Tape, Tool Racks, Car Battery Cases, Epoxy, Paint, Mops, Slacks, Insect Repellent, Oil Filters, Umbrellas, Yarn, Fertilizers, Hair Coloring, Roofing, Toilet Seats, Fishing Rods, Lipstick, Denture Adhesive, Linoleum, Speakers, Plastic Wood, Electric Blankets, Glycerin, Tennis Rackets, Rubber Cement, Dice, Nylon Rope, Candles, Trash Bags, Paint, Water Pipes, Hand Lotion, Roller Skates, Surfboards, Shampoo, Wheels, Paint Rollers, Shower Curtains, Guitar Strings, Luggage, Safety Glasses, Antifreeze, Awnings, Eyeglasses, Toothbrushes, Ice Chests, Combs, CD's & DVD's, Brushes, Detergents, Vaporizers, Balloons, SunGlasses, Tents, Heart Valves, Crayons, Parachutes, Telephones, Enamel, Pillows, Dishes, Cameras, Anesthetics, Artificial Turf, Artificial Limbs, Bandages, Dentures, Model Cars, Folding Doors, Hair Curlers, Cold Cream, Movie Film, Soft Contact Lenses, Drinking Cups, Fan Belts, Car Enamel, Shaving Cream, Ammonia, Refrigerators, Golf Balls, Toothpaste, and of course Solvents, Motor Oil, Bearing Grease ….


    BTW - the rest of your post has too many errors to address.
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  9. #9  
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    This video is most enlightening on the future of oil and the interplay with international commerce and upcoming shooting wars (all three of them). Charts, graphs, maps and logic tie together oil, demographics and geography. The good news is that the United States is relatively insulated from the chaos. The other (good? bad?) news is the collapse of China, Russia, Germany and the EU. Whatever your views of geopolitics are this video is a must see unless you are already familiar with Peter Zeihan. The last 1/2 hour explains Trump's foreign policy as it relates to China, Japan, UK, Germany and the PRK. It was eye opening, at least to me.



    PS The speakers style is NOT a tedious, boring academic lecture.
    NEWS FLASH: Jeff Sessions arrested in the lobby of the Department of Justice for loitering. Details to follow.
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  10. #10  
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    Quote Originally Posted by old dog View Post
    This video is most enlightening on the future of oil and the interplay with international commerce and upcoming shooting wars (all three of them).

    ...............

    PS The speakers style is NOT a tedious, boring academic lecture.
    I’m about halfway through the vid and I’m going to have to watch it a couple of more times or start taking notes. Fascinating, encouraging and wondering all at the same time.
    I found a bit (pro open borders crap) about the US birth rate in this mornings paper that the speaker will most likely start addressing in upcoming repeats of the presentation.
    He noted the significant low birth rates around his time and now its worse.

    The latest report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says there were 3,853,472 births in the United States last year — the lowest number in 30 years. The nation’s general fertility rate was 60.2 births per 1,000 women ages 15 to 44, which represented a 3 percent drop from 2016.

    Of course they proceeded to lay out how good it was that we had all these immigrants here or how bad the rate would have been without them -like we need so many more mouths to feed.

    BTW - great find!
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