Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 15
  1. #1 2018 Senate Rundown 
    Destroyer of Worlds Apocalypse's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    Locked in a Dungeon, being tortured and LOVING IT!
    Posts
    8,531
    Post SCOTUS mess, we've been hearing about how our base is energized now. Well, now we are starting to see some numbers.

    For the House, it's hard to say with any definite, as pollsters rarely poll individual districts. When it comes to the House, it's an educated best guess. Based on history, demographics, party alignment and so forth. But over the last week now, most pollsters have shown the house going from almost certainly lost, to almost a 50/50 shot,, but still an edge to the left. And as Nov. closes in, it will likely shift more.

    The Senate is more interesting. And this is what has Pollsters sounding the alarms for the left.
    https://www.dailywire.com/news/36841...-james-barrett

    So looking at the races in the Senate.

    If currently held today, 49 are considered Gop, where 44 are considered Dem with 7 being tossup.

    In the races starting with the tossups looking at the number shifts post SCOTUS.

    Tennessee Blackburn (R) Bredesen (D)
    Most recent poll shows Blackburn up 8 over Bredesen. This race is about to shift from Tossup to leaning GOP. It has shifted 13 points in our favor post SCOTUS.

    Nevada Heller (R) Rosen (D)
    Most recent poll shows Keller leading Rosen by 2 points. Still well within the margin of error. But that is a 6 point shift in our favor post SCOTUS. Most other polls have shown Rosen before usually in the lead here.

    Montana Tester (D) Rosendale (R)
    Last poll was done back in September. So a good picture here is not clear. It showed Tester with a 4 point lead.

    Missouri Hawley (R) McCaskill (D)
    Lost poll here post SCOTUS shows a dead tie. Before then all polls were bouncing between the two. Currently Hawley has a razor thin edge in the averages. 0.4% of an edge.

    Indiana Donnelly (D) Braun (R)
    Currently showing Donnelly with a 2 point lead, well within the margin of error. But post SCOTUS, shows a 1 point shift in our favor. This race also has a 3rd party candidate pulling in 7 points.

    Florida Nelson (D)Scott (R)
    Last poll was done back in September. So a good picture here is not clear. It had shown Scott closing a 6 point gap to a 1 point difference at the time.

    Arizona Sinema (D) McSally (R)
    3 polls here post SCOTUS, two show Sinema up ether 2 or 3, one shows McSally up 6. This race has remained mostly flat with Sinema leading. So what is up with McSally sudden change is unknown. Hopefully she can get a nice bump from President Trump's rallies.


    Now looking out at what should be the safer races.

    Republican
    Texas Cruz actually saw a 3 point dip post SCOTUS.

    North Dakota Kevin Cramer (R) has exploded here. Gaining 2 points post SCOTUS and 6 during. He now leads 12 points.

    Mississippi Two Republicans and one Dem in this race. This race really wont be known until Nov 6 during their open primary. Historically this is a deep red state.

    Democrat
    West Virginia Nothing post SCOTUS, last poll was in Sept. It showed Manchin with a 8 point lead.

    Wisconsin Baldwin (D) picked up a 2 point gain.

    New Jersey
    Menendez (D) gained 4 points post SCOTUS.

    Minnesota Smith (D) gained 9 points post SCOTUS.

    Ohio Brown (D)
    gained 5 points post SCOTUS.

    Pennsylvania
    Nothing post SCOTUS, last poll was in Sept. It showedCasey (D)

    with a 16 point lead.

    Michigan Stabenow (D) saw a 5 point loss post SCOTUS, but she still leads by 18 points.


    Reply With Quote  
     

  2. #2  
    Power CUer
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Posts
    23,085
    Menendez should be in jail.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  3. #3  
    Power CUer NJCardFan's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Posts
    20,562
    Quote Originally Posted by Elspeth View Post
    Menendez should be in jail.
    It's NJ. I'm not surprised.
    The American Left: Where everything is politics and politics is everything.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  4. #4  
    Power CUer
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Posts
    23,085
    Project Veritas is going after Bredesen

    Reply With Quote  
     

  5. #5  
    Power CUer noonwitch's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Location
    Warren, MI
    Posts
    19,367
    Debbie is pretty safe right now. She just got a major bill through to replace the Soo Locks, which is big for shipping on the Great Lakes. The locks are old, and they are what all ships have to go through to get from Lake Superior to Lake Huron.

    Trump hasn't been to MI yet to stump for her opponent.

    There should be a larger than normal turnout this year because of the recreational weed ballot proposal. I don't know which side that helps more, as people on both sides seem to support it, except for the GOP governor's candidate (Schutte), who does not. Schutte's behind in the polls, too, but not as much as James is.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  6. #6  
    Destroyer of Worlds Apocalypse's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    Locked in a Dungeon, being tortured and LOVING IT!
    Posts
    8,531
    Arizona Sinema (D) might have just watched her bid implode today. A video of her back in 2011 showing her calling the people of Arizona "Crazies" and mocking the state.

    https://twitter.com/ReaganBattalion/...13496335298560
    Reply With Quote  
     

  7. #7  
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Posts
    699
    New poll has Blackburn up 14 points in Tennessee. That should move to leaning GOP soon and there's the Senate with 50 likely races going red plus six or so tossups.

    I think Arizona is going to quickly start moving towards towards McSally too. That keeps the Senate at 51 with five or so more tossups still on the table.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  8. #8  
    Administrator SaintLouieWoman's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Location
    Missouri
    Posts
    44,334
    Many of the Dems in the red states seem to be following a common theme---saying how "moderate" they are and how they work with the Republicans. I almost choke when I see Claire McCaskill's ads. She's still running an ad showing the senator from Kansas, Pat Roberts, basically saying that Claire works well with Republicans. Yes, she works so well that she voted against the tax cut and against Kavanaugh. She's a moderate in her own mind. What's interesting is the senator from Kansas demanded she take that ad off the air, that he didn't approve it. Today in only the noon local news she played it twice. Yeah, she really plays nice with the Republicans.

    Then there are the ads against her rival, Hawley, calling him the "golden boy" and then there's that special ad when she calls him a "liar". Of course his ads are getting a bit more hard hitting, like calling her out on some very dubious business deals that benefit her and her super rich husband.

    She needs to lose and take some time off to enjoy her multi millions and those offshore bank accounts (alleged).
    http://http://i145.photobucket.com/albums/r231/SarasotaRepub/83069bcc.png

    " To the world you are just one more person, but to a rescued pet, you are the world."

    "
    A Nation of Sheep Breeds a Government of Wolves!"

    Reply With Quote  
     

  9. #9  
    Power CUer NJCardFan's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Posts
    20,562
    Quote Originally Posted by SaintLouieWoman View Post
    Many of the Dems in the red states seem to be following a common theme---saying how "moderate" they are and how they work with the Republicans. I almost choke when I see Claire McCaskill's ads. She's still running an ad showing the senator from Kansas, Pat Roberts, basically saying that Claire works well with Republicans. Yes, she works so well that she voted against the tax cut and against Kavanaugh. She's a moderate in her own mind. What's interesting is the senator from Kansas demanded she take that ad off the air, that he didn't approve it. Today in only the noon local news she played it twice. Yeah, she really plays nice with the Republicans.

    Then there are the ads against her rival, Hawley, calling him the "golden boy" and then there's that special ad when she calls him a "liar". Of course his ads are getting a bit more hard hitting, like calling her out on some very dubious business deals that benefit her and her super rich husband.

    She needs to lose and take some time off to enjoy her multi millions and those offshore bank accounts (alleged).
    Her opponent needs to focus on McKaskill's RV tour where she took private planes all over the state while not spending 5 minutes in the RV.
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/...rv-trip-641674
    The American Left: Where everything is politics and politics is everything.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  10. #10  
    Destroyer of Worlds Apocalypse's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    Locked in a Dungeon, being tortured and LOVING IT!
    Posts
    8,531
    Quote Originally Posted by Swampfox View Post
    New poll has Blackburn up 14 points in Tennessee. That should move to leaning GOP soon and there's the Senate with 50 likely races going red plus six or so tossups.
    NY Times/Siena poll, well, can't make the claim it is a right-wing poll. HAHAHA
    I think Arizona is going to quickly start moving towards towards McSally too. That keeps the Senate at 51 with five or so more tossups still on the table.
    If things keep going the way it is now, we could see a 52 or 53 seat total. Maybe if we get really lucky 54. I would say 52 is looking very good right now.
    Reply With Quote  
     

Bookmarks
Bookmarks
Posting Permissions
  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •