Results 1 to 8 of 8
  1. #1 A little word about polls... 
    Power CUer
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Posts
    24,606
    The polls that came out yesterday--especially the Quinnipiac poll--show several Democrat candidates beating Trump in 2020, and Biden by double digits.

    Let the Dems have their little party. It's early days. As a reminder, remember where we were at this point in the 2016 election:

    https://www.redstate.com/elizabeth-v...-points...hmmm

    ...We are 17 months away from the election. At this point in the 2016 election season, polls showed Hillary Clinton ahead of Trump by huge margins...

    A Quinnipiac poll taken between 5/19/15-5/26/15 had Clinton winning by 18 points. Fox News had Clinton on top by 17 and a CNN/ORC poll conducted between 6/26/15 and 6/28/15 had Clinton ahead by a whopping 24 points.

    An Associated Press poll published on 10/25/16, two weeks before the election, gave the race to Clinton by 13 points, the same margin that Quinnipiac gives to Biden today, a year and a half out.
    Also, keep in mind which polls were actually accurate (very few). The poll I followed in 2016 was the USC-Dornsife poll, which almost predicted the exact election results. USC-Dornsife had Clinton ahead, but by SINGLE digits, and the difference between the two candidates steadily got smaller. Then in September, 2016, the candidates flipped positions with Trump narrowly ahead. (This was right after Hillary had to be carried into her black van by her staff on 9/11 and the video taken of the event went viral.)

    Right now, USC-Dornsife has Biden ahead, but not by Quinnipiac's numbers. Trump has many cards up his sleeve, even with a propagandistic and biased media. Also, the DNC has just taken out a second 5 million dollar loan and are heavily in debt.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  2. #2  
    Festivus Moderator ralph wiggum's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    Springfield, USA
    Posts
    21,956
    Never worry about polls. Just another prop for the media to chatter about in a tizzy.

    Statistics are like a lamppost, used more for support than illumination.
    Voted hottest "chick" at CU - My hotness transcends gender
    Reply With Quote  
     

  3. #3  
    Power CUer
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Posts
    24,606
    Quote Originally Posted by ralph wiggum View Post
    Never worry about polls. Just another prop for the media to chatter about in a tizzy.

    Statistics are like a lamppost, used more for support than illumination.
    When polling is properly and ethically done, the results can be very useful. It's another form of "self report" that is sometimes used in studies in soft fields like sociology. When these are properly done, the results are meaningful. In politics, however, the rules are often ignored or deliberately jettisoned and unreliable polls are the result.

    Polls are used in politics to create a particular outcome. That is why political parties hire pollsters to ask the public about certain issues and then use these (often skewed) polls to support their new legislation (that they just happen to have ready.)

    In the 2016 election, polls were manipulated and inflated to create the idea of Hillary's "inevitable" win. This had to be done when the candidate was so hated by half the population and not terribly well-liked by many in her own party. As I pointed out in the OP, those polls were obviously wrong.

    The USC-Dornsife poll is one that I will continue to follow this year. It was the only accurate poll out of over a dozen I saw on the net.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  4. #4  
    Festivus Moderator ralph wiggum's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    Springfield, USA
    Posts
    21,956
    For Presidential polling, the IBD-TIP (think that's the acronym) poll was awfully close in 2012 & 2016.
    Voted hottest "chick" at CU - My hotness transcends gender
    Reply With Quote  
     

  5. #5  
    Power CUer
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Posts
    24,606
    Quote Originally Posted by ralph wiggum View Post
    For Presidential polling, the IBD-TIP (think that's the acronym) poll was awfully close in 2012 & 2016.
    We should put up links to all the dependable polls. When I get my regular computer back (and not this 2004 laptop that can't access anything) I will.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  6. #6  
    Festivus Moderator ralph wiggum's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    Springfield, USA
    Posts
    21,956
    Quote Originally Posted by Elspeth View Post
    We should put up links to all the dependable polls. When I get my regular computer back (and not this 2004 laptop that can't access anything) I will.
    https://www.investors.com/politics/i...election-poll/

    It had Trump winning the popular vote, but the underlying details are damn close. Don't think there was an electoral prediction. This poll nailed Obama/Romney in 2012.
    Voted hottest "chick" at CU - My hotness transcends gender
    Reply With Quote  
     

  7. #7  
    Senior Member old dog's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2017
    Location
    the high desert
    Posts
    1,955
    This far out from the election, polls are meaningless. They had:

    Carter beating Reagan.
    Mondale beating Reagan.
    Bush beating Cinton.
    Dole beating Clinton.
    and, of course, Clinton beating Trump.

    They are usually and easily skewed with more D's than R's, More Blue's than Red's and more Cities than rural.

    The one really bad thing about these polls is that many, many cowardly, moronic GOP Congreesscritters and Senators in the beltway bubble actually believe them.

    Last edited by old dog; 06-12-2019 at 07:18 PM.

    The United States Navy, fighting Moslem barbarians since 1801.

    *****************************************
    Candace Owens for President 2024.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fQgbN76AWrw
    Reply With Quote  
     

  8. #8  
    Senior Member cadillac shark's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    4,936
    My thing is show 'em if you must. But don't devote huge gulfs of time speculating about them. I don't know who's responsible for the last two decades of poll-fixation. I think it's Dick Morris. Ramblin' Dick, as The President might call him.
    Reply With Quote  
     

Bookmarks
Bookmarks
Posting Permissions
  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •