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  1. #1 NYT: Trump's Electoral College Edge Could Grow in 2020, Rewarding Polarizing Campaign 
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    dalton99a (38,165 posts)



    NYT: Trump's Electoral College Edge Could Grow in 2020, Rewarding Polarizing Campaign

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/19/u...ege-edge-.html


    Trump's Electoral College Edge Could Grow in 2020, Rewarding Polarizing Campaign
    Re-election looks plausible even with a bigger loss in the national popular vote.
    By Nate Cohn
    July 19, 2019

    ...

    Many assume that the huge turnout expected in 2020 will benefit Democrats, but itís not so straightforward. It could conceivably work to the advantage of either party, and either way, higher turnout could widen the gap between the Electoral College and the popular vote.

    Thatís because the major Democratic opportunity ó to mobilize nonwhite and young voters on the periphery of politics ó would disproportionately help Democrats in diverse, often noncompetitive states.

    The major Republican opportunity ó to mobilize less educated white voters, particularly those who voted in 2016 but sat out 2018 ó would disproportionately help them in white, working-class areas overrepresented in the Northern battleground states.

    If everyone who was eligible to vote turned up at the polls, the gap between the Sun Belt and Rust Belt would close. Texas, astonishingly, would emerge as the tipping-point state. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, by contrast, would barely budge.

    Of course, a full-turnout election is not going to happen. In recent months, analysts have speculated about a 70 percent turnout among eligible voters, up from 60 percent in 2016.

    In this kind of high-turnout presidential election, by our estimates, the tipping-point state would drift to the right as people who voted in 2016 but not in 2018 return to the electorate and nudge states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin toward the president. At the same time, the Sun Belt would drift left. Arizona could overtake Wisconsin as the tipping-point state. But even in this hypothetical high-turnout election, the presidentís approval rating in Arizona would be higher than it was in 2018 in Wisconsin. It becomes harder for the Democrats to win the presidency.

    In such an election, the tipping-point state could have a net approval rating that is five points higher than the presidentís national net approval rating, potentially allowing the president to win re-election while losing the popular vote by a wide margin.













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    Kahuna7 (1,684 posts)

    3. Go too far to the left and voters will vote for the, 'devil they know...'

    That's how it goes. That's how Nixon won.
    if..fish..had..wings (10 posts)
    7. Somewhat disagree

    First, Nixon would be considered left of most of the Dem candidates today.
    Second, Nixon won a landslide in '72, lost only one state. (In '68 there was no 'devil we know' to vote for).

    I believe Trump is hoping that the black/female/muslim/immigrant-hating Bubbas of the country will be enough to give him an EC victory.

    Besides which, he won't leave even if he loses.
    Riiiiight. Nixon was a leftist who advocated for open borders, abortion right up to and including during and directly after birth, socialism and EVERYTHING is a "human right" so the government should provide cradle to grave welfare for EVERYONE who wants it and doesn't want to work....and many who do.
    donkeypoofed (1,639 posts)

    5. Yep, he will lose the popular vote but win the Electoral College, again

    You guys have got to get rid of that thing, if the democracy survives 4 more years of that racist prick, that is. It should be that whoever gets the most votes wins, period.
    Jack*sses won't be satisfied until their leftist agenda can be FORCED on the 8/10ths of the country that DOES NOT want it.
    Girard442 (3,485 posts)

    6. The 2016 election was held under the (more or less) watchful eye of Obama's Justice Dept.

    The 2020 election will be "protected" by Trump and Barr.
    That's right. OBAMA'S justice department who KNEW the Russians were interfering in our election and didn't care if they did as long as The Hillybitch was expected to win.....once Trump won they decided to USE it and lie saying it was the "Russians" who got Trump elected. LIES, LIES and MORE LIES.
    5starlib (36 posts)

    10. This is very sobering...we can't afford a 'revolution' right now

    And no socialist-like candidates. I'm almost beginning to wonder if Michelle Obama or Oprah might be the only ones who can guarantee a landslide against Trump.
    Who are these jack*sses kidding? No matter who THEY want, and no matter what the 'candidates' say, it will be the DNC and the shakers and movers including The Black*ss and The Hillyb*tch, who will DECIDE who the candidate will be and the stupid idiots will have no say in the matter. Just like The Hillyb*tch fixed it last time it'll be fixed this time too. Jack*sses think their vote "counts".

    It was made clear after 2016 that the votes in the primary meant NOTHING...............and the JACK*SSES didn't care..............because corruption, cheating and lying is a fact of life for the Jack*ss Party. Even the DUmmies EXPECT it.
    Fiendish Thingy (2,289 posts)
    21. We need to give young people a reason to turn out

    Nominating a moderate, Status Quo candidate will not inspire, and could suppress turn out among the youth vote.

    Youth voters are seeking real change from the status Quo in health care, student loans, the environment, and more. Treading water with someone whose main qualification is simply ďnot TrumpĒ is not good enough to motivate them to vote.

    If we dramatically increase the youth turn out, we win.
    Yea!!11!! Lie and bribe people to vote for Dems. That and cheating is the only way they win.
    Butterflylady (993 posts)

    12. Im sorry

    But this is laughable. Please don't fall for this. For one thing those Obama people who went for orange anal know they made a huge mistake and want nothing more then to rectify it. How do I know, because I know quite a few of them and they are sorry, however, it wasn't the immigration point, but that's another story. I've even talked to a few repugs in my building and they hate, yes hate him now,so please put this in perspective. Yes we need to keep our eye on the ball, but I gotta say they are sure trying hard to make this a horse race.
    Yep. And Clinton was supposed to win in a landslide. Until she didn't.
    onecaliberal (13,700 posts)
    14. Sorry but a lot of people who voted for dump in 2016 will not make that mistake again.

    IMO this article is a right wing wishful thought. Trump didnt actually win at least 3 of the states the results suggest.
    Right. Jack*sses are POSITIVE they NEVER LOSE because people REJECT their agenda..............it''s ALWAYS the election was "stolen" from them.

    MFM008 (16,415 posts)

    22. And just think

    no mention of Obstruction of Justice...
    No mention of Child Rape or accused RAPE ..
    ties to illegal sex trafficking.
    no mention of rampant racism
    no mention of endless corruption
    Grifiting........... immoral vile behavior and words and on and on and on.........
    Just talking about him like it was Mitt Romney or some "normal"
    republican.
    Just plain old reelection like his shit don't stink.
    WTF is wrong with these people.

    That's because all the lies and hysterics and corruption is a NEGATIVE for Democrats.

    Democrats think people don't notice or agree with them. Until, like 2016 they find out it isn't the case.
    Liberals are divorced from reality and they think it's great. When you live in la la land you're never wrong, it's always the other person/groups fault and you can believe what you want to believe and call it 'truth'.
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  2. #2  
    Festivus Moderator ralph wiggum's Avatar
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    IMO this article is a right wing wishful thought. Trump didnt actually win at least 3 of the states the results suggest.
    NY Times is a right wing site...who knew?
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  3. #3  
    Power CUer SVPete's Avatar
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    And cauliflower could grow out of Trump's ears, purple on the right and yellow on the left.
    Facts don't matter to DUpipo.

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  4. #4  
    Senior Member Apache's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SVPete View Post
    And cauliflower could grow out of Trump's ears, purple on the right and yellow on the left.
    LSD style, Pete... no more Red Vs Blue.... Change the colors... memory-hole it all.... The young will never know!
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